Bitcoin is an asymmetric bet with unlimited upside potential in emerging economies. How can emerging economies lead cryptocurrency reforms in commercial banks and enjoy an economic renaissance built on sound monetary policy? In a recent Coindesk interview, Nic Carter provided a very good use case for Bitcoin banking. However, from his point of view, Bitcoin will play an important role in the reform of traditional banking in the long run. I would like to look at this issue from another perspective, that is, from the perspective of emerging economies. It includes all those markets/economies that do not make it into the small club of fully developed economies, such as Europe, the United States, and Japan, to which China and Russia now also belong. Regardless of the definition, emerging economies have one thing in common: they have relatively weak currencies, the risk of sudden capital flight, and less mature banking and credit systems. This is one of the main factors hindering local investment and economic development. The partial dollarization of these economies is common and it at least mitigates the disastrous effects of hyperinflation or double-digit inflation suffered by local populations such as Venezuela, Argentina or Turkey. The effectiveness of capital controls will greatly increase in the future due to the increasing global use of cryptocurrencies and the reduction of capital controls. As a result, emerging economies will accelerate the pace of local currency substitution for cryptocurrencies and crypto-fiat currencies (i.e. stablecoins) such as Bitcoin or Tether/USDt, true USD or USDC, which are easily available and will gradually replace national currencies. Instead, it may facilitate seamless integration and trading between local currencies and foreign stablecoins while promoting a Bitcoin-centric banking system, rather than a dollar-centric solution, which is the solution that emerging economies need to insulate their markets from the effects of currency substitution and strengthen their banking systems to drive investment in local economies. The economic and geopolitical risks of dollarization are well known. So how can a Bitcoin-centric economy function while also maintaining local currencies and their full convertibility into Bitcoin, other national currencies, and stablecoins? The Lost Art of Commercial Banking In 1974, self-taught American economist EC Harwood wrote an article titled "The Lost Art of Commercial Banking". Harwood founded the American Institute for Economic Research in 1933, predicted the recession of 1929, steered clients into gold, witnessed the inflation of the 1970s and wrote about it. Currency debasement was the hottest topic at the time, following Nixon's infamous 1971 dollar default and breaking the gold-dollar peg. EC Harwood points out that the period from the end of 1800 to 1914 before World War I represented the apex of Western civilization in monetary affairs. It facilitated commerce and made possible long-term accounting records that were meaningful rather than false. The development of savings institutions, life insurance and pension funds encouraged not only trade between nations but also a substantial increase in useful capital. It is widely believed that this period marks perhaps the most far-reaching advances made by mankind in the evolutionary development of a money and credit system that serves modern industrial society. Another fact is that gold was the common international monetary basis for all the world's major industrial nations and many other countries at that time. |