Can the copycat trend continue?

The cryptocurrency circle has had both good and bad times this week during the Chinese New Year . The good news is that Bitcoin continues to create new ATH highs, breaking through $50,000 and currently hovering around $52,000. News of overseas companies buying coins continues to come in, and MicroStrategy has recently increased its holdings. It seems that this trend will not be stopped for a while.

What is a bit worrying is that the mainstream DeFi coins that grew rapidly before, such as Aave/Uni, are in the callback and shock zone. Ethereum is affected by gas and it always feels a bit difficult to climb upward. Therefore, there are many voices in the market that are worried or bearish about the altcoins.

However, it is not as bad as imagined. It is just that one party sang and the other party came on stage. Affected by the high gas transaction costs, more capital attention, especially the DeFi mining part, began to shift from Ethereum to other ecological chains. Among them, the most popular one is Binance 's BSC chain . In addition to being an Ethereum copy chain, this wave of ecology on it has also copied a lot of platforms and targets that can be benchmarked against leading projects such as Aave/Uni, which have been quite crazy recently:

On the first working day of the new year, let's have some positive energy . Although many coins have risen tenfold from their lows last year, including the current market value of 3 billion US dollars, which can only rank Alibaba around 30th, it also makes people sigh that everything seems expensive now.

But there may be a lot of room for imagination . Here, the picture above:

The above picture is a monthly chart showing the market value of all currencies except Bitcoin over time , a long-term trend from 2014 to the present.

If you want to observe this chart yourself, add the target search in tradingview.com: TOTAL2, and you can see that TOTAL is the K-line of the cryptocurrency market value including Bitcoin, and 2 does not include the Bitcoin market value.

From the above chart, we can see that the total market value of the altcoin market has just exceeded the peak of 500 billion US dollars in early 2018. This round of Bitcoin has more than doubled after surpassing the height in 2017. I think there is still room for imagination in the altcoin market, especially according to the definition of the altcoin season, there must be a large number of altcoins whose growth rate exceeds that of Bitcoin.

I have captured a more detailed chart of the changes in the market value of copycats in the last cycle. From the circled areas in the chart, you can see that in the year after the overall market value of copycats surpassed history in the last four years, the overall market value increased by 270 times.

Of course, the analogy here may be a bit far-fetched. I don't know whether we can now be equivalent to the beginning of 2017. It may be difficult to have such a big growth. After all, a large part of their growth came from the ICO wave in 2017, while our current incremental projects are relatively limited.

However, I think the probability that the copycat market will grow several times, if not a hundred times, this year is quite high.

The two pictures above are from different overseas bloggers, and they both noticed the same trend. You can also think about whether this is the case.

If you agree, you can also pay attention to the following two aspects:

1. Look at the long term more, do less operations , and even pay less attention to the market. The rate of return will be better than looking for codes to check the price of coins every day. Some friends panic when they see a rise in price, so they sell it and finally cannot buy it back. In fact, for those who hold, the rise will test their mentality more than the fall. For old investors, they should pay special attention to stay away from the price anchoring psychology. They dare not take action when they see the price double, or sell it out of fear of high prices. However, if they ignore the trend, they will miss the fattest period. For example, the trend of BNB in ​​the past year can be referred to:

Of course, this is easier said than done.

2. If the overall market value of the altcoin market will increase in the future, then each coin will have some impact. There is no logic to much of the growth. It is nothing more than more funds, more speculative demand, and more reluctance to sell. We should spend less time looking for reasons and be more patient.

My humble opinion on the choice is that one is the currently popular area , such as the new coins in the Binance ecosystem and the Polkadot ecosystem , which you can pay attention to (I have written about a pols in Polkadot in the second article of the official account before, and I looked back these two days and found that it has increased more than ten times). As long as Ethereum maintains a high gas level, speculative funds will still be in these areas, and the only logic of the bull market is to invest in areas where funds are hot. However, I personally feel that the domestic component is still higher in these areas, and it is not easy for those big overseas Ethereum investors to move their butts, so it feels that there are still more harvests in these ecosystems, or it is difficult to maintain long-term high growth, and we need to pay attention to risks.

There is also a public chain that has grown quite well recently - atom . It may have grown more than bnb in the past week. I have updated it before. It also has a lot of Binance resources and domestic capital. I don’t know if there will be some correlation in price performance here. You can also pay attention to its several ecological coins later.

The other is some mainstream coins that have not performed well , such as Litecoin and BCH. I don’t know if they will have some opportunities this year, because I feel that the current market situation is a bit like a changing of the times. The growth of those that have risen too fast will slow down, and those that had no movement before will suddenly surge upward.

Conclusion

Okay, today’s content will be simple, and it’s mainly to cheer you up. I hope everyone will be more optimistic about this year and look at the long term.