Bitcoin fell below $44,000, will the "312" event happen again in the cryptocurrency world?

"It's collapsing, run."

At 10 p.m. on February 28, Bitcoin fell rapidly, falling below $44,000 and hitting $43,571 in the short term. As of press time, Bitcoin has fallen 23% from $57,000 at the beginning of this week, the largest weekly drop since March 2020. In early March 2020, BTC fluctuated by more than 50% in a single week and eventually closed down 33%. At that time, BTC fell from a low of $8,000 to $3,800.

(Image source: QKL123)

Despite multiple positive factors, Bitcoin is still weak

Recently, there have been too many positive things for Bitcoin:

1) Coinbase went public.

2) On Saturday night, Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan was passed by the House of Representatives and has entered the Senate for a vote.

3) Bitcoin’s SOPR < 1, entering the bottom-fishing range. (Note: OPR < 1 means that on-chain users sell Bitcoin at the current price, and the average profit is negative. When SOPR is less than 1, the supply will decrease, and the price will naturally rebound more easily.)

4) Miners’ addresses turned positive for the first time in several months. Not only did they stop selling coins, they even started buying coins.

Analyst Lex Moskovski tweeted that Glassnode data showed that starting yesterday, miners have stopped selling and started accumulating Bitcoin, which is the first time since December 27, which also means that miners have been selling Bitcoin for two months.

5) Increase in illiquid Bitcoin supply

Glassnode's latest on-chain data shows that the illiquid Bitcoin supply exceeds the circulating supply for the first time in three years. There are currently more than 14.5 million BTC that are illiquid. At the same time, the liquid supply has decreased significantly, and as of press time, it has dropped to 4 million. Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of Glassnode and on-chain analyst, believes that this is a bullish sign for Bitcoin. The lack of liquidity indicates that more market participants choose to accumulate Bitcoin because they believe that Bitcoin will continue to grow.

Of the above five items, except for the first item, which caused Bitcoin to briefly break through $50,000 after the news was released, the other items did not directly stimulate the price of the currency. If the positive news cannot stimulate the price of the currency to rise, we need to calmly consider whether this bull market has reached a turning point.

The current trend is very similar to last year's "312"

If you are familiar with the Bitcoin price K-line around "312" last year, the current K-line pattern is almost the same as last year.

On the eve of last year's "312", the price of Bitcoin fell from a high of $10,500. After falling below MA30, it rebounded weakly, and then fell to $4,300 with a big negative line, and then fell to $3,800 the next day. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has begun to fall to the MA30 position, and is repeating last year's script.

Looking at the external situation, on the eve of the "312" last year, the entire financial world collapsed due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, and the US stock market, crude oil, and A-shares all collapsed. After that, the United States began to print a large amount of money to save the market, and US technology stocks began to rebound and set a new high.

However, the recent phenomenon is that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has soared from 1.13% to a high of 1.61% on Thursday, up 48 basis points, the highest level in a year. The U.S. debt storm has begun to slaughter global stock markets, and the three major U.S. stock indexes have plummeted. The prices of technology stocks in the U.S. market have continued to fall, especially Tesla, which has fallen from a high of $900 to a low of $620.

As the global epidemic is effectively controlled and the economy quickly resumes growth, the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Technology stocks will fall sharply, and bubble assets such as Bitcoin will also see a sharp decline.

As long as the music doesn't stop, we keep dancing. But everyone knows that the music will stop one day, so some people start to leave early.