Bitcoin Holdings Weekly Report | The bull carnival was "shut down" by the sharp drop, and institutions predicted in advance and responded calmly

On February 27, the CFTC released the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (February 17-February 23). Although BTC once achieved another round of considerable gains of $10,000 in the latest statistical period, it quickly gave up the gains in the middle and later stages of the statistical period, and finally ended with a slight decline in the entire statistical period. The panic voices of "the turning point is coming" broke out again. Against the background of this "rare" big drop in the long-lasting rise, the choices made by various investors in the market are undoubtedly the biggest highlight of this weekly position report.

The total number of open positions fell from 11,426 to 10,572 in the latest data. The trend of the previous two weeks of continuous growth came to an end, and the decline in the latest statistical period also led to the full loss of the gains in the previous statistical period. The sharp drop in the second half of the statistical period obviously caused the market to worry about the stop of growth and the fall.

From the perspective of sub-item data, the largest dealer's long position decreased from 368 to 332, the short position decreased from 564 to 464, and the long and short two-way (hedged) positions increased slightly from 61 to 62. Although the reduction in short positions of such accounts in the latest statistical period is relatively larger, the net short position of such accounts has not changed. As mentioned in the previous weekly report, such accounts have been repeatedly throwing "air defense alarms" in the past period of time, and the behavior of taking precautions against sharp corrections in advance when the market was still rising in the previous statistical periods can be said to have accurately "predicted" this round of corrections in the latest statistical period. The cautious attitude of institutional investors towards potential risks has made such accounts more calm when facing the sudden and sharp decline in the market.

The long positions held by asset management institutions dropped from 338 to 314, and the short positions soared from 339 to 551, which hit a 27-week high. The two-way positions dropped from 9 to 0. This type of account continued the idea of ​​net air conditioning in the previous statistical period in the latest statistical period, and the emotional expression of this net air conditioning became more intense in the latest statistical period. At present, the proportion of long orders in the long-short position ratio of this type of account has also dropped to a new low since the end of August last year. The frequent short-side warnings of large institutions in the past period of time have finally received "positive feedback" from the market. It can be seen that the "institutional misjudgment" suspected in the previous weekly reports was not accurate. Instead, the institutions smelled the breath of danger first during the rise of the market.

In the latest statistical period, the long position of leveraged fund accounts decreased from 3,301 to 2,633, the short position decreased from 8,750 to 7,639, and the two-way position decreased slightly from 660 to 608. Leveraged funds have reduced their positions by a considerable amount. According to the usual judgment of the position adjustment of such accounts, this position adjustment is a clear expression of short-biased. With the end of this period of position adjustment, the proportion of long orders in the long-short position ratio of such accounts has dropped to a new low in the past 51 weeks. In other words, the last time such accounts had a similar position structure was around the March 12 crash last year. Leveraged funds have expressed a rather pessimistic attitude towards this round of correction.

In terms of large-scale positions, long positions increased from 3,030 to 3,650, short positions increased from 132 to 259, and two-way positions decreased from 151 to 81. Large-scale accounts became the only type of accounts that increased long positions in the latest statistical period, which also continued the trend of such accounts increasing long positions in the previous two statistical periods. To some extent, it can be understood that such accounts still hold a relatively positive attitude towards this round of callback, believing that the upward trend of the market has not been completely destroyed.

In terms of retail positions, long positions fell from 3,508 to 2,892, and short positions rose from 760 to 908. Retail accounts made clear net adjustments in the latest statistical period, and the proportion of long orders in the long-short position ratio data fell to a 26-week low. Retail investors once again made position adjustments in line with market trends.