Ethereum's influence on the market is growing, is Bitcoin's throne no longer secure?

Text/Guibi K God

Bitcoin is still in the broken positive mode, without a big positive new high, and the timing is quite sensitive, especially since many people think that 58326 is the top, and 312 is a sharp drop, etc. In this case, it is not difficult to accept that Li Ge will mess with people, but don't think about 312. What needs to be noted is that Bitcoin's influence on the market is getting bigger and bigger, and Bitcoin is getting more and more outrageous, and it deserves a spanking.

【News】

There is only one interesting piece of news today, that is, Grayscale has released recruitment information for positions including central compliance manager, ETF authorized participant relationship manager, ETF compliance officer, ETF financial reporting manager, ETF financial support manager, ETF market maker relationship manager, ETF product development expert, and ETF sales director. The quality or trend of a company's operations can be seen through recruitment information. Grayscale's increase in these positions can only mean that its investment in the field of digital currency will increase further, and the variety of digital currency holdings will also increase accordingly. Maybe the coins you hold now will enter Grayscale's ETF pool one day. This is a good thing for the digital currency market. Since Grayscale has made such a layout, it means that it is optimistic about the development of digital currency, and it also means more possibilities. It is a good news that is not obvious but real.

【Technical Analysis】

Bitcoin did not break through yesterday, but continued to follow the broken positive pattern, which lasted for the fifth time. The timing is quite delicate, as there are still two trading days before the 312 crash in 2020, or the catastrophic event in the cryptocurrency circle. With this trend, many people are worried that 312 will happen again, but in Lao K's opinion, what should be more worried about is the 312 mirror image (the opposite of 312) trend.

We all know that the superficial or so-called objective reason for the 3.12 crash in 2020 was the withdrawal of funds under the influence of the epidemic. In fact, looking back now, it was a blatant rush to buy shares. Moreover, there is no super negative factor such as the epidemic for the market to take advantage of, so the more fearful it is, the safer the market is.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin's trend this morning is a bit strange, not because of the strange shape, but because of the large volume:

The 4-hour chart is a piercing line, which is not surprising in itself. This kind of trick has happened before, but the large volume is a bit annoying. Li Ge will not use so many chips to smash the market. After all, the smaller the chips, the smaller the chips. This smash should be done by the shorts. It is worth pondering whether the shorts will make a bigger move next. In terms of form, this 4-hour chart has been played before in the rebound of 28,800 US dollars, and the volume is also relatively large. If you are interested, you can look back:

After that wave of decline, there was a further correction, but it did not break the key support and then gradually moved up again to more than 58,000 US dollars. Let's compare the situation at that time to see where the current key support is:

The key support of this wave is around 51,800 USD, so for now, as long as this position is not broken, there will be no big problem. If it is broken, we should be alert. Because although Lao K believes that the market 75710 mode is a high probability event, after all, the previous high of 58326 USD is there, and the possibility of a small probability of decline before the breakthrough is also objectively present. If this further decline occurs, then 58326 USD may really become a stage head:

The so-called tombstone line is the second highest point after the top appears. Most of them appear in the form of a Yin cross, just like the cross tombstone in foreign countries, hence the name. Of course, the probability is almost 0. And even if a tombstone line is formed, it is necessary to confirm the establishment of the tombstone line by not breaking the high point of the tombstone line but falling below the previous oscillation low point. It is too early to talk about it now. It is just to show the possibility to everyone. Don't be nervous.

Judging from the current 4-hour pattern, the upward momentum has not been destroyed, and the resonance resistance level between the small channel and the large channel is actually between 59,000 and 61,000 US dollars:

The 4-hour level rebound channel has not been broken, and the internal running channel has not been broken, and the resonance position of the two channels is above the new high. In this case, there is no need to worry about the market, at least not at present.

15 minutes in details:

The various channels support and pressure entanglement, especially the orange line mentioned in yesterday's article, came back again this morning, which means that this pressure should not be underestimated. The bears are unwilling to give up easily, and the bulls are naturally the same. The key short-term support is still 53,200 US dollars. If this position is not broken, the toss is also to delay time. The bears can't do anything to the bulls unless they break this. If it falls below 53,200 US dollars, there are still 52,500 and 51,800 US dollars below, especially the 51,000-51,800 line of support, which is basically the bottom line of the bulls. If the bulls don't want to be beaten, this position cannot be lost. If it is lost, you must pay attention to the possibility of further market turmoil, which is another story.

The recent market, or since 2021, the market rhythm is basically not in the hands of Bitcoin, but in the hands of Ethereum. We talked about this in yesterday's article. This morning's decline was also caused by the sudden decline of Ethereum. By comparing the 1-hour trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum, we can clearly see:

BTC 1 hour chart:

The perfect upward acceleration pattern suddenly turned into a yin and yang parallel and continued to decline. Why?

ETH 1 hour chart:

At the same time, Bitcoin surged upward and accelerated the positive line, while Ethereum formed a doji, and formed an evening star with the next hour, leading to a rapid adjustment of the market. Looking further ahead, the penultimate line before Ethereum fell was a T-shaped line, while Ethereum was a pure positive line. This shows that Ethereum and Bitcoin are still in a state of mutual control, thereby controlling the overall market's rise or adjustment rhythm, and the details are fully utilized.

Therefore, in the current market, instead of paying attention to the detailed trend of Bitcoin, it is better to focus on Ethereum, this little bastard, and see how it plays. According to Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum's current expansion plan will be released in about a month, and Ethereum's efficiency will be increased by 100 times. We don't understand technical matters, and we dare not ask, and we can't ask. After all, although the name contains the word "God", they are real gods, and mine is at most a name, and K and V are quite far apart except when they are close in KTV. Ahem, I'm getting off topic. If Ethereum really expands 100 times as Vitalik Buterin said, then there is no doubt that its efficiency will be greatly improved, and the cost of use will be further reduced. This is naturally good for Ethereum, but it may not be very friendly to other chains that develop DeFi, so DeFi or its basic chain that is not on Ethereum may be negatively affected, so be careful.

Technically speaking, Ethereum, 4 hours:

So far, Ethereum's recent upward channel is still there, with key supports at $1,764, $1,633 and $1,585. In the short term, $1,764 cannot be broken. If it is broken, the next support will be $1,633. If Ethereum breaks the first important support, Bitcoin will also be affected and break $53,200. Please pay attention.

The market as a whole was doing well yesterday, but this morning one transaction created countless variables. Whether this variable is good or bad needs further observation. There is no need to worry about it in general, because it is useless to worry about it, and it will eventually come down to the specific technical form. Just take one step at a time, the overall situation is fine, but there are various troubles in the details, so just wait and see.

As for the operation, the long position today is still the same as yesterday. 53200 USD is the first short-term support, and the first support of Ethereum is 1764. The other supports are also mentioned. When approaching these supports, go long mainly with these supports. For steady operators, it is relatively simple. It is naturally safer and more stable to wait for the lower track of the channel than to chase the rise. I still don't do shorting. The specific position to choose depends on your view of the market and risk preference. For spot trading, just be at ease and do what you should do. As for the results, the market will give the answer.