Hello everyone, I am God K. I only like to study K-line. My friends call me “K-line maniac” and you can call me Lao K.
Bitcoin obviously has no room for adjustment, but it has taken a frightening adjustment pattern. I was completely confused yesterday. Some coin friends left a message in the interactive area saying that there is no main force, it is all market behavior. This sentence is correct, but there are big fish and small fish in the market. The introduction of the concept of main force is to better analyze the market. Bitcoin's adjustment is unsustainable. In fact, Ethereum has been the boss of the market since the beginning of 2021. Let's see what Ethereum is playing. The news is relatively calm and not very meaningful. After nearly two days of adjustment, Bitcoin pierced through the sub-period moving average yesterday and closed with a positive T-shaped pattern. Today, there is a need to test the sub-period moving average again. It is difficult to make further adjustments. Unless Li Ge wants to press Ethereum to the ground, this decline should be over: The daily chart shows that the price is going up and down again, which can be regarded as a short top. The support below is at 53,000 USD and 49,240-50,500 USD. If the price at 53,000 USD cannot be stabilized, there is still about 10% room to go down. For a slow rise, this room is obviously too large. Although it is theoretically possible to go up, the probability of going up is almost zero. The trend will be clearer in detail: One is that the current suspected head and shoulders top turns into a head and shoulders bottom or a double bottom pattern rebound, and the other is the yellow path to find the second neckline. Theoretically, both probabilities exist, but we have said that the probability of the yellow path is about the same as the duck egg. Why? The main reason is that after the start of 2021, Ethereum, not Bitcoin, is currently in control of the rhythm. By comparing the two daily charts, we can see that Ethereum reached a new high one day ahead of Bitcoin. On the second day, on the 21st, Bitcoin reached a new high, but Ethereum did not reach a new high. In the subsequent adjustments, Bitcoin did not fall below the previous oscillation low in the two days of decline, while Ethereum directly broke the previous oscillation low. Subsequently, Ethereum continued to fall in the lower shadow part and even reached a new low, dragging Bitcoin to a low of $43,000. You should still remember that last weekend, March 6-7, Ethereum was stronger than Bitcoin. Ethereum's daily line rose by more than 10% for two days, but Bitcoin did not. But the interesting thing is that Bitcoin's subsequent new high appeared at $61,800, while Ethereum was scared again at this time and did not reach a new high. We can completely imagine a picture of this difference in rhythm and conversion between strength and weakness: February 20, 2021, Weather: Not great Bitcoin Diary: I plan to go to a new high tomorrow and watch the sea of clouds and sunrise with my aunt to give her a surprise. Ethereum Diary: I plan to reach a new high today, but Bitcoin is too slow and I can’t wait for it any longer. February 21, 2021, weather: just so-so Bitcoin Diary: Confirmed, new high today, sunrise, here we come! Ethereum Diary: It’s a bit cold on the mountain, I’m going back to the hotel first. Bitcoin was not interested in the market and was eager to reach a new high, but Ethereum did not continue to reach a new high but chose to pull back. The enthusiasm for Bitcoin was immediately extinguished. As Ethereum pulled back. But it is obvious that girls are very temperamental. Bitcoin adjusted by 27.8%, while Ethereum pulled back by as much as 36.6%. After Ethereum stabilized and rebounded, Bitcoin seemed to be in high spirits. Let's go to see the sunrise! Ethereum rolled its eyes. This is the problem with this wave of Bitcoin reaching a new high again, while Ethereum continued to have no new highs and then adjusted again - lack of tacit understanding and different rhythms. But these two people who love and hate each other are indeed a family. Everyone, please note that since $61,800, Bitcoin has adjusted by 13.81% and Ethereum has adjusted by 10.89%. Bitcoin, which has been hit twice, is obviously unhappy and has a little mood, but Ethereum has become relatively stable at this time. Bitcoin is very much like an A-shaped decline: Ethereum is another form: This kind of pattern difference happened in the trend of Bitcoin a few days before its new high. Bitcoin went up all the way, while Ethereum had an obvious pause (Bitcoin, the idiot, was excited to climb up to see the sunrise, Ethereum was tired and wanted to rest, but Bitcoin didn't wait, hahahaha), then Ethereum ran out of anger and ran a 12% big positive line, while Bitcoin only had a 10% amplitude, but even though Ethereum increased its speed a bit, it still couldn't catch up with Bitcoin, so Bitcoin reached a new high, while Ethereum didn't, and then Bitcoin looked back and thought, oh, why didn't you catch up again (if I were Ethereum, I would also be a little upset at this moment, you have been like this for several times, you scumbag). But after this callback, Ethereum still missed Bitcoin. Bitcoin rushed down the mountain twice in anger because it didn't go well with the climb these days, while Ethereum was slowly and leisurely behind. Why? Hey, although it has a little temper and a little awkward. But it took these two a year to get here, and the sunrise still needs to be watched, after all, everyone likes a happy ending. From the perspective of the financial market, it is actually a question of the rhythm of the rise. The mutual control rhythm of Bitcoin and Ethereum has not been synchronized since the rebound from $3,800. There are some differences between them, but overall they are all for more growth, and they have indeed risen a lot. At present, Bitcoin looks ugly in form, as if it is going to top. Ethereum's daily trend is actually a very common but particularly easy to ignore rising flag pattern, just because its "wind" is a breeze, so the flag is not flying very obviously. This trend is usually a very strong pattern: In a strong form, the flagpole and flag are relatively clear, the flagpole is tall and long, and the flag is relatively small, giving people a feeling that a big negative decline will occur at any time, which is already very confusing. But in the cryptocurrency circle, there is another more confusing deformed flag - the flagpole is very low: This kind of deformed flag has a very short flagpole and is difficult to distinguish from the flag. It is easy for people to mistake it for a shock. It especially likes to appear at a relatively high position, giving people the illusion of a plate top. Such examples can be seen everywhere: Ethereum's current 4-hour chart: Daily chart of a strong currency: The trend of Bitcoin after $9834, daily chart, if it is put on the 4-hour level, it will be more obvious. The network is a bit stuck, so just take a look: Such a small flag can rise and fall three times at most. Each rise will look like consolidation but not a double bottom, and each fall will be highly similar to an M head. This is the most frightening part of this deformed flag, and it is also the favorite routine of many coins. It is most likely to appear before a major acceleration, and it is extremely confusing. Based on Ethereum's hidden flag and its core influence, Lao K still maintains the original judgment that the market is messing around here with only one purpose, which is to use the relatively high level of relative sideways trading to create a false head and lure in weak retail investors. So please be patient at this stage. The more it looks like a big drop, the more you should take it as an opportunity, rather than being scared and choosing to leave the market. Otherwise, if you hesitate to buy back later, you will be thrown off the real main rising wave, and it will be too late to regret it. In 15 minutes, based on the false head of BTC, the posture still needs to be done: From the perspective of the corresponding time relationship, the market is not expected to react well today, at least during the day, and there will be a relatively large rise in the evening or tomorrow. In terms of details, the support of 53,000 US dollars is almost certain. The closer to this support, the more reasonable it is to stop loss and go long. As for shorting, don't do it. In terms of spot, just focus on Pixiu, and don't do anything else. The above is all for today. I wish you all a smooth investment. I am Pixiu K, and I will continue to be Pixiu. See you tomorrow. |
