The Federal Reserve is calling on the world to do something. When did Bitcoin become so timid?

Text/Guibi K God

Hello everyone, I am God K. I only like to study K-line. My friends call me “K-line maniac” and you can call me Lao K.

【K God said】

Yesterday morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference caused a surge in global financial markets. The traditional financial market is still acceptable, but Bitcoin, don't forget who you are. When did you become so cowardly?

【News】

The most important news yesterday was that the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%-0.25%, and most members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States said that they would not raise interest rates before 2023. Boosted by the news, U.S. stocks directly hit a new high, global bulk markets, especially non-ferrous metals, rose across the board, and gold also rebounded. And our Bitcoin, to be honest, I am very disappointed. It is a habit for traditional financial markets to be controlled by the US dollar, but Uncle Bitcoin, you are a hedge against traditional financial risks. The Federal Reserve made an online call, and you also followed the rise to join in the fun, which is very un-Bitcoin. Although I have always been very indifferent to the news and think it is used to cooperate with the market, the reaction last night was really inappropriate. Musk’s online call for Dogecoin in the past few days has already surprised people. Bitcoin almost faced the world alone, but it was climaxed by a sentence from someone, which made me feel uncomfortable. Personally, there are three things I have been worried about about Bitcoin:

First, the breakdown of consensus leads to collapse. To put it bluntly, consensus is the human heart, and the human heart is the most changeable. This is the biggest soft risk of Bitcoin.

Second, quantum computing breaks through encryption armor. The technical basis for Bitcoin is that encryption is difficult and costly to crack. If a quantum computer is specially built to attack Bitcoin, at least at the moment of its birth, Bitcoin cannot be defended. A quantum computer may not even take 60 seconds to crack Bitcoin's encryption system. This is the hardware risk of Bitcoin.

Third, the American conspiracy theory. As the top player in the financial game, the United States should not play too well in finance. One dollar can harvest the world, and sovereign countries are all leeks in its eyes. Such a top player can't see the crisis of the dollar? If the online speculation that Satoshi Nakamoto is Kellerman is true, then it is very likely that Bitcoin is a creation of the United States. With the gradual decline of the dollar, it is not difficult for Bitcoin, as a shadow dollar, to continue to harvest the world. Don't you see that the world is afraid of various boycotts, but the United States has been tepid? If Bitcoin is really a creation of the United States, although it does not affect our holding it from the perspective of speculation or investment, its growth will be smooth at the beginning, but the ceiling will come quickly, and it will face greater troubles in the future. It's like falling in love. You think the other person is a good person, but the other person is calculating you. Just ask if your balls are hurt. As for whether the person who calculates you will fall in love with you in the end, it is more reliable to watch less movies and more reality.

In short, Mr. Bitcoin, you really need a different attitude. Don’t become a plaything of capital.

【Technical Analysis】

Bitcoin now has an opportunity to declare itself as just Bitcoin, the "one" in the virtual world, and the direction of the future. This opportunity is to reach the ultimate of this round of market as quickly as possible, because this ultimate will be shocking and exaggerated enough to let the whole world know that Bitcoin is just so awesome. It is not a plaything, it is just itself, and it will continue to be the "one" to balance the real world that has already been riddled with holes.

The first step is for you to break through 70,000 US dollars, okay?

In 4 hours: the double bottom structure is established again:

With the breakthrough in the early hours of yesterday morning, the short-term double bottom neckline of 53,000 US dollars was broken through at 57,300 US dollars, and the double bottom was confirmed as an effective breakthrough. And then it broke through 58,000 US dollars more strongly, which is the left shoulder of the suspected head and shoulders top pattern that everyone has been trembling with recently. The breakthrough of this position means that the head and shoulders top of 61,800 US dollars is not established. Since the head and shoulders top is not established, but the double bottom is established, then the next question is the time and space for the rebound.

In terms of time, we will see the daily chart more clearly:

Because the daily pattern is strange (if it is not strange, it will not scare so many people), it can be a head and shoulders bottom pattern in the white box, or a double bottom pattern in the yellow box. As for the time distinction between the head and shoulders bottom and the double bottom, since the left falling line of the head and shoulders bottom becomes the central axis, in terms of time, the two lines on the left fall, and the corresponding two lines on the right go up, then the standard pull-up time is Friday; if it is a yellow double bottom, then there are three K lines on the left side, and three on the right side, then the pull-up time point is Saturday. Generally speaking, the bottom pattern of a strong market will shorten the breakthrough time and the retracement low point will be higher than the left shoulder, so from today to the weekend is a time window for market changes, or a pull-up time window.

What will happen if the space is pulled up? See 7 as the minimum requirement:

As shown in the above figure, the market trend during this period is very complicated. Starting from 28,800 US dollars, the overall trend is a wedge shape. The high and low points are rising, but the amplitude is getting narrower and narrower. In fact, a wedge shape is formed (the three-color fully anchored area shape in the above figure). The wedge shape is more interesting, and there are four situations:

The first type is a strong breakthrough of the wedge. There is no need to think about it. It will accelerate and accelerate again. The longer the wedge is, the higher it will go. It will go straight to the 10s and will not return to the 5s in the middle. The previous 75710 pattern will evolve into the 710 pattern. It will be under pressure at the blue upper rail extension position. It is currently outside the screen and the specific landing point cannot be seen. We will talk about it later.

The second type is breaking through the wedge but not breaking the yellow rising channel. This trend will break through in the future, and as time goes by, the rising channel will extend upward to a higher position with a larger space, but it will take a lot of time and is also strong.

The third type is after breaking through the wedge and then breaking through the yellow rising channel, but not continuing to fall, but going sideways instead of adjusting. This situation is also strong, but compared with the previous two types, it is getting weaker and weaker, and the strength is not as good as before.

The fourth scenario is breaking through the wedge and the yellow rising channel and further pulling back. This means that the rebound after $28,800 has not been recognized. Then it may go back to $28,800 to find a larger channel support (the lower track of the orange channel in the above picture). Of course, this is a later story. It is too early to say now, and the probability is about the same as an egg.

The above patterns can simulate different trends. I don't want to draw pictures because it's troublesome. You can just get the idea. Lao K's point of view is relatively clear: the first strong breakthrough of the wedge is the most likely trend, with the highest probability.

The logic is not complicated: since the rebound from $3,800, except for the accumulation area below $12,500, the subsequent trends are all about not giving people the opportunity to buy at low positions. The main force is actually quite impatient, or in a hurry. For example, the bull market in 2013 was divided into two parts, one of which was a sideways period of half a year. The monthly line level of the bull market in 2017 rose slowly in a yin-yang alternating manner, but this time the rebound, the monthly line is pure yang, with strong strength and speed. Although retail investors are trembling with fear due to the recent trend, foreign institutions are actually very enthusiastic. Modern Stanley, a large American bank, has begun to make investment plans for high-net-worth people. After buying BTC in the early stage, Meitu in China has now bought tens of millions of dollars of ETH. At present, the institutional layout has a bit of a cost-free meaning. If institutions dare to enter the market at this position and may increase their stakes at any time, how dare Li Ge stay here for a long time? The longer they stay, the more institutional chips they will have, and it will be difficult for Li Ge to deal with them later. Therefore, the acceleration of the wedge pattern breakthrough is the only best choice. After reaching a higher position, you can go sideways at a higher position like a strong copycat, so that the market cost can be increased a little bit and the selling pressure in the future market can be reduced. This is the reliable way.

So we just need to wait patiently, the fastest is today and the slowest is the weekend. New highs are not a problem, but whether or not we can reach 7 is what I care about. Whether the pressure of the third point of the wedge at 63,200 US dollars is broken is a key point. Of course, there is a high probability that it will be broken. There is no suspense. In fact, it is to tell everyone the market situation and possibilities, and to prepare mentally. I think mentality is much more important than technology at the current stage.

As for the short-term situation of today's market, the gameplay is not complicated. It is nothing more than a matter of whether it will rise sharply during the day or drag on until the evening, because there are three patterns to play in 4 hours. No matter which one, the answer will be available at the latest at 20:00 pm:

The strongest form, no chance to pull up, what you see is the low, first pull above 60,000 US dollars and then wander around or break through directly:

Medium strength, time-delayed play, make one or two cross stars, and form a pseudo evening star with the Yin line after 16 o'clock, and reverse at night:

No matter which mode is adopted, it will not affect production. The key support now becomes 57,000 US dollars, and the core is still 53,000 US dollars. As for the cheating gameplay, there are more possibilities, countless, and it doesn’t make much sense.

So, if it is a contract operation, the main stop loss is to go long when the price falls below 53,000 USD (whether it is in place depends on whether you can accept the stop loss without crying. If you can accept it, do it at will. If you can't accept it, watch more and do less. Wait until you can accept it before doing it. It varies from person to person). Just like yesterday, I can't afford to offend Brother Li in the details of short orders. The fluctuation is too big and too exciting. In the spot market, it is still the saying that my ears are calloused. Be at ease with Pixiu. The bull market has two hearts: patience and confidence, don't be obsessed with gains and losses.