In-depth Analysis: Bitcoin price to rise again as March comes to an end!

Unlike October, March has been a lackluster month for risk assets over the years. Some experts attribute this weakness to investors taking profits from their investments to pay taxes. While there is debate over whether investors need to sell their investments to pay taxes, history shows that the market does have a tendency to underperform in March compared to other months.
This phenomenon is even more pronounced for Bitcoin, which dictates the direction of all other crypto assets. According to statistics, March has always been a bad month for cryptocurrencies, with the benchmark cryptocurrency BTC falling 8 out of 10 times in March over the past 10 years. While March this year has not been an entirely negative month, BTC's price has been weak, with the decline significantly greater than the rise. While no one can pinpoint exactly why March was particularly bad for BTC, miners, the largest source of BTC supply, may have contributed.
Since miners are corporate entities, they are subject to taxation. Therefore, many mining entities may need to sell BTC to fiat units to pay taxes that are due in April in most countries. This phenomenon then has a self-replenishing effect as traders in the know start selling or shorting BTC in late February to mid-March each year to get ahead of these miners and thus get the highest price.

March is also the end of the quarter, when investment funds need to rebalance their investment holdings. Many funds sitting on huge profits from the dramatic start of January and February this year may have taken profits, as evidenced by the declines in Coinbase and Grayscale Premium in March, with both premiums turning from positive to negative.
In addition, March is also one of the quarterly expirations for futures and options contracts. In particular, the number of derivative contracts expiring on March 26 this year is huge, worth about $8 billion. Traders usually like to stay away from the market until such a large contract expires to avoid the potential high volatility associated with such expiration.
According to historical data, the price of BTC always rebounds after the expiration of derivatives contracts, as shown in the figure below, which plots the 7-day average return of BTC before, during, and after expiration.

Source: Interdax
So far, BTC’s price performance has been in line with expectations, rebounding after the March contract expiration on March 26 and trading fairly healthily through the end of March.
Therefore, as we move beyond the scary month of March, investment in BTC is expected to increase as institutional and retail BTC investment products continue to launch to make the market more accessible to new entrants. A flood of new investment could cause prices to rise again in the coming months, especially as the prospect of a US BTC ETF becomes more and more apparent.
On-chain data still shows that more and more BTC is being moved from exchanges into cold storage, which will only shed more light on the supply crisis over time and lead to much higher prices.

Furthermore, most data still suggest that the peak is far from over, suggesting that this may just be a consolidation before the market calls for a move higher in April.

Historically, April has always been a comeback month, with a stellar record compared to March, but the other way around. BTC has rebounded in 8 of the past 10 years in April, recording double-digit returns 6 times. May and June also have a good record. So if historical performance is a good indicator, we may see a considerable price increase for BTC in the coming months, and $100,000 BTC this summer may not be so far-fetched.