Grayscale's negative premium hits a new high, and the glory is gone. ETF may become a life-saving straw

In the past, the regular and non-redeemable nature of Grayscale's GBTC was the biggest selling point, but now it has become a shackle. As we all know, GBTC cannot be redeemed for physical BTC, and investors who bought at a low price can only make a profit by selling GBTC, especially the large number of GBTC shares purchased by users in October last year, which have just entered the unlocking stage. The large-scale sell-off after unlocking caused GBTC to have a negative premium for two months.

Grayscale is currently actively looking for solutions. On the one hand, the official funds are used to repurchase GBTC, but the effect is not very good, and the ability of GBTC itself is also limited. Currently, there are 692,370,100 GBTC shares, one-third of which, or 219,648,956 shares, have not yet been unlocked. The remaining two-thirds bring huge selling pressure, and this method has little effect.

The second aspect is that Grayscale is also actively applying for an ETF, hoping to convert GBTC into a Bitcoin ETF approved by the United States. After all, the current appearance of GBTC at a negative premium is closely related to the Bitcoin ETF approved by Canada to grab business. Due to the convenience of operation and "cheaper", institutional users all go to buy Canada's Bitcoin ETF, which makes GBTC increasingly unpopular. If the ETF route does not work, then the negative premium will continue, making this vicious cycle continue.

It is hard not to sigh a little here, and I feel deeply that the currency circle is changing so fast. In the second half of last year and even in January this year, Grayscale's increase in holdings was almost the strongest driver of Bitcoin's rise, and it was also the vane for the majority of currency people to judge the rise and fall of currency prices. But I don't know when, no one cares whether Grayscale increases its holdings. Grayscale's position is gradually replaced by other companies that buy coins, and gradually replaced by new ETFs. It can be regarded as being subject to objective conditions. Just like Jiang Zhuoer's evaluation, the more glorious it was before, the greater the disaster it has to endure now. It is recommended that Grayscale complete the relevant procedures and open redemption. Everything in the world is conserved, don't expect any free gains.

At present, there are still new applicants for Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. For example, just yesterday, investment company Valkyrie Digital Assets was preparing to launch its Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). When the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recognizes the application, the form will start a 45-day review period. During these 45 days, the SEC will either decide whether to approve the application or extend the review period.

On the other hand, the US SEC issued an announcement on Thursday, announcing that it will begin reviewing the Kryptoin Bitcoin ETF application submitted by the Cboe BZX exchange. This is the third Bitcoin ETF application evaluated by the US SEC after VanEck and WisdomTree. The regulator has up to 240 days to approve or reject the application.

Although the waiting time for approval or rejection of an application is relatively long, it is not expected to take that long. Market insiders have previously stated that the results may come out in November of this year. After Coinbase's listing in the first half of the year, the US Bitcoin ETF has become the next expectation of the cryptocurrency market.

Back to the market, after the decline that caused market complaints during the day yesterday, the market finally began to rebound at four o'clock in the afternoon, and eventually closed above US$51,000. The rebound range was still quite good. After the opening today, it used a large negative line to step back and forth, and then slowly rebounded. The current price of the currency is running around US$50,000.

As we said, there is currently no effective support in the $42,000-43,000 range. If there is a rebound in the middle, it depends on the market's self-adjustment. As long as the bulls organize a counterattack at a certain position, this position will become the new support. However, it can also be seen how strong the previous rise was. In this range, there was basically no major correction and it went straight up. It is not surprising that there is such a correction at present.

It was quite surprising that the market did not rebound much over the weekend. After all, yesterday's bottoming out and recovery looked pretty good. Today was a good opportunity to take advantage of the momentum, but it chose to pull back after the opening. We can look forward to a rebound in the evening.

At present, there is no need to expect that the market can return to the upward trend in a short time. It will be a success if it can stabilize in a short period of time. As for the operation, as we said, if there is a retracement, you can intervene with a light position and copy it. Don't be too heavy. You need to grasp the risks of the contract yourself.

ETH: ETH rebounded strongly yesterday, and the closing price almost returned to the opening price, which is a stronger bottoming out than Bitcoin. If it continues to rebound, ETH is still worth looking forward to. Today, there is good news again. Ethereum core developer Tim Beiko tweeted yesterday that the London fork is expected to be carried out in mid-July. The fork will include upgrades such as EIP-1559, EIP-3198, and EIP-3238. It is no wonder why ETH has been so strong recently.

Platform coins: The rebound strength of the three major platform coins yesterday was also quite good, especially BNB and OKB, which once rebounded and turned positive. At present, it is more conservative in the long term. In the short term, when the market falls sharply, the rebound strength is still relatively sufficient.

DeFi: Although there has not been a strong rebound in Defi currencies in the past two days, it can be seen from the trend of Uni in the past two days that as long as there is an opportunity, the activity is still very sufficient. The current chips are also relatively good, so you can consider hoarding some on dips.