Who is selling Bitcoin during the 64,000 drop based on on-chain address transfers?

A fact that cannot be ignored is that we have indeed entered the second half of the bull market, and we should be more conservative rather than radical in the future.

Bitcoins are divided according to the time since they were last moved, which can be called the age of the bitcoin.

The proportion of bitcoins in different coin age ranges relative to all mined bitcoins is plotted over time, as shown in the figure below.

Different color curves correspond to the proportion of Bitcoin in different coin age ranges.

Figure 1

By analyzing the changes in the number of bitcoins in different age ranges, we can roughly determine which age range of bitcoins is being transferred.

The following figure shows the change in the amount of Bitcoin in different age ranges from April 13 to April 124:

Figure 2

It is clear from the figure that we can see who has been transferring Bitcoin since the high of 64,000 Bitcoin on April 14. If we regard these as potential selling pressure, we can have the following analysis.

Rule: If the coins in an age range increase, it must be from the accumulation of the previous time range; if the coins in an age range decrease, some of them must become coins in the next time range, or they may be transferred and turned into new coins.

If the amount of bitcoin in the previous age range has decreased a lot, but there has been no significant increase in the latter time range, it means that the amount of bitcoin in the latter time range has also decreased by a considerable amount.

1. For coins within a short period of one month, the number of bitcoins with an age of one week to one month decreased by 128,000, while the number of bitcoins with an age of one to three months increased by 65,000. These 65,000 bitcoins clearly came from the coins accumulated in one week to one month, which is part of the 128,000 bitcoins.

In addition, the approximately 63,000 bitcoins that were reduced were transferred and became new coins, that is, coins with an age of 1 day or 1 day to 1 week.

That is to say, about half of the bitcoins with a coin age of one week to one month have not moved and have become longer-term coins (January to March), and the other half have been transferred and most likely sold.

**Or it can be said that about half of the bitcoins traded in the past week to month have been sold in the past week. Compared with the price, I think a considerable part of this part was sold at a loss. **

The sum of bitcoins with a coin age of 1 day and 1 day to 1 week is about 124,000, of which 63,000 come from bitcoins with a coin age of 1 week to 1 month. Another new source is longer-term bitcoins, which are obviously from bitcoins with a coin age of 6 months to 3 years, as can be seen from the table.

2. From June to 3 years, the total number of bitcoins decreased by about 81,000

Among them, part of the 36,000 bitcoins whose coin age decreased by 2-3 years became bitcoins with a coin age of 3-5 years, and the other part was transferred and turned into new coins.

The 45,000 bitcoins whose age decreased from 6-1 year and 1-2 years have all become new coins.

The sum of these two parts of newly added bitcoins is basically consistent with the remaining increase in the coin age of 1 day to 1 week (the previous analysis is 12.4-6.3=61,000 coins).

That is to say, the second largest selling force is Bitcoin with a coin age of 6 months to 3 years, which corresponds to the Bitcoin bought at the end of 2018, the beginning of 2019, and from the bottom of 312 to October last year when the price of Bitcoin was around 10,000.

3. Bitcoin with a currency age of more than 3 years

In the past week, the number of bitcoins with an age of 3-5 years has only decreased by 5, but in the previous period, the number of bitcoins with an age of 2-3 years has decreased by 36,000. Some of these bitcoins have become bitcoins with an age of 3-5 years. Therefore, in the past week, bitcoins with an age of 3-5 years must have experienced a rapid decline and rapid rise.

If you zoom in on Figure 1, you can see it clearly:

Figure 3

It decreased by 24,000 pieces from the 13th to the 14th, and by 7,000 pieces from the 14th to the 16th.

Compare the changes in Bitcoin in the next time period of 5-7 years:

Figure 4

From the 13th to the 14th, there was a more drastic drop of 16,800 coins. In order to determine whether this part was transferred or turned into coins of the next longer time range, let’s look at the changes in Bitcoin with a coin age of 7-10 years.

Figure 5

From the 13th to the 14th, the number of coins increased by 18,600, which is a sharp increase.

From the comparison of Figure 4 and Figure 5, it can be found that at the high point, on the 13th and 14th, the increase in Bitcoin with a coin age of 7-10 years was basically equal to the decrease in Bitcoin with a coin age of 5-7 years. This shows that on this day, the part of Bitcoin with a coin age of 5-7 years that was reduced was not transferred, but turned into Bitcoin with a longer age.

By comparing Figure 3 and Figure 4, that is, the changes in Bitcoin with a coin age of 3-5 years and 5-7 years, it can be seen that from the 13th to the 15th, at least 24,000 Bitcoins were transferred and turned into new coins.

This, I believe, is the third major selling force.

Let’s take a look at the changes in these long-term Bitcoins in the big cycle:

The above picture shows the changes in the number of bitcoins that have not been moved for more than 3 years. It is obvious that the current price has not been able to attract more long-term hoarded bitcoins to be transferred and sold.

But one fact that cannot be ignored is that we have indeed entered the second half of the bull market, and we should be more conservative rather than radical in the future.

In general, the bull market is still there, but the safe strategy should be to remove leverage and gradually pocket profits.