Dan Held, head of business growth at Kraken, recently spoke about an important hypothesis related to “Bitcoin’s super cycle.” According to his estimates, the asset’s price could soar to $1 million, but what will happen to the digital asset once it reaches its peak is an entirely different question. Dan Held, who expressed his views in the latest “What Happened to Bitcoin” podcast, said that the correction witnessed by the market is likely to weaken after this rally peaks. He commented, “It’s certainly not going to just go from $20,000 to $100,000, it could actually go from $20,000 to $1 million, and then the cycles will be shorter, and this could be one of the last big cycles.” In the interview, Holder explained what exactly this supercycle represents. According to him, the Bitcoin bull run at this point will not be overrated due to a bearish correction. He used $300,000 as a reference point to portray his bullish view on the asset. “If Bitcoin does go over $300,000, do you think anyone will sell it? Maybe, but the discussion about the super cycle will suddenly become very intense as people’s reflexivity kicks in.” He further explained, “We see the opposite, like when Bitcoin went down a few days ago. All the shorts came out, they just saw the end of Bitcoin and sold all the Bitcoin to prove that they were right, and now the market has rebounded and it’s booming again, so all the shorts are gone again.” According to him, unlike past bull cycles, where the world’s largest cryptocurrency experienced an 80% drop after hitting its ATH, the current bull run will not reciprocate in the same manner. According to his prediction, when the current craze ends, “Bitcoin might end up staying put for a while.” The chart historically calculates that Bitcoin’s last two peaks were 37x and 17x respectively. Even if we assume the pattern continues but with a reduced multiplier, it is fair to expect BTC to increase 8x from its previous ATH, which is $20,000 times 8 , or roughly $160,000 per coin. People might think, “Oh, there’s definitely going to be a bear market,” and I don’t know, what if it’s just a very mild winter? Everyone might predict, “It’s going to have to be like the last bull market, an 80% drop,” and I guess, maybe it is, but there seems to be a lot of differences in this cycle. Furthermore, Bitcoin may not have a “normal cycle” due to massive institutional adoption. The infusion of institutional capital, growing economic problems, and a huge bullish mentality will influence Bitcoin’s consolidation phase. A recent Deutsche Bank survey revealed that cryptocurrencies are increasingly replacing cash and bank cards among millennials. Therefore, Dan soon realized another important impact, saying that using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange would become another use case, which could also take ten or even twenty years. |
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