Does the concentrated outbreak of altcoins indicate that the cryptocurrency market has peaked?

Written by: Secrets
Compiled by: Li Ke

What is Altseason?

Altseason refers to the period of altcoin explosion. Some people think it is just a "normal cryptocurrency bull market", but in my opinion, it is a special phenomenon at the end of the altcoin bubble, when you can get the maximum profit in the shortest time, and the market reaches a crazy peak, at which time you can boldly cash out.

Where are we now?

The last cycle of digital currency experienced two altseasons, one in December 2017 and one in March 2018. They only lasted about a month or less.

I think we may be in the first altcoin breakout period of this cycle, which means that every time the price rises to the top of the parabola, it is an excellent opportunity for arbitrage.

What happens next?

If we are experiencing the first altseason of this cycle, the market will experience a major correction, then a recovery, and then the last altseason after Bitcoin peaks.

How to deal with the outbreak of counterfeiting?

Will we encounter such an alt season before the next major market adjustment? No one knows the answer. But the current market conditions are still relatively favorable. My strategy is to arbitrage a small amount of profits on the way to the alt season. If I really encounter an alt season, I will boldly arbitrage and lock in profits.

About my strategy

I am now primarily shifting my focus from short-term profits to long-term profits, and if the market is going to go through a correction soon, I will continue to hold until the second, bigger bubble of this cycle (the altcoin burst period) occurs.

Diagram of the Second Altcoin Explosion in 2017/18

If you want to learn more about the two altseasons in the last cycle in 2017/18, please see the following chart:

2 altcoin explosions in 2017/18 (yellow bars)

1. In the last cycle, Bitcoin experienced a 10-fold growth before the two altcoin booms, accompanied by a large number of new investors entering the market. During this period, Bitcoin experienced violent fluctuations and sideways consolidation.

2. When the price of Bitcoin reached its third peak in history in March 2018, altcoins exploded in popularity, and most altcoins had a high-point arbitrage window of about 2 weeks.

3. When ETH and BTC fluctuate violently, altcoins are likely to explode.

4. Two-thirds of altcoins reached their highest prices during the first altcoin boom.

5. At the last parabolic apex of the K-line before the bear market begins, altcoins are likely to explode (this is the second and last altcoin explosion in the last cycle), the so-called last carnival.

6. The second altcoin outbreak in the last cycle lasted about 2 months, but the most intensive outbreak lasted only about 1 month (March 2018).

Summarize

• When Bitcoin reaches the top of the K-line parabola + the price of Ethereum reaches the top of the parabola = the outbreak period of altcoin.

• There may be 2 altcoin outbreak periods in one cycle.

• I think we may be in the first altcoin outbreak period of this cycle. After that, the market will experience an adjustment and then rebound until it breaks through a new high and reaches a peak. At that time, we will usher in the second altcoin outbreak period, which will also be the last carnival of this round.