|
On May 12, Musk, who occasionally "promotes products" in the cryptocurrency circle, said on Twitter that Tesla temporarily suspended Bitcoin transactions due to concerns about "the rapid increase in the use of Bitcoin mined with fossil fuels."
This sudden "betrayal" statement caused the price of Bitcoin to fall.
A week later, several Chinese industry associations jointly issued an announcement requiring member institutions not to engage in virtual currency transactions and exchanges and other related financial businesses; Internet platform companies are not allowed to provide online business premises, commercial displays, marketing and promotion, paid traffic diversion and other services for virtual currency-related businesses.
On May 19, the price of Bitcoin plummeted, falling 30% during the day to a low of $30,500 per coin, more than 50% lower than the high of $64,838 on April 14. Ethereum also fell more than 40% during the day. On May 20, Bitcoin barely returned to the price of $40,000.
However, with the relevant ministries issuing a document on the 21st requiring strengthening the supervision of platform companies' financial activities and cracking down on Bitcoin mining and trading, the price of the virtual currency market once again "flash crashed", with Bitcoin falling by $3,000 in the short term.
On May 25, Musk once again called for the use of clean energy for mining, and the price of Bitcoin rebounded by nearly $3,000. In just two weeks, various virtual currencies represented by Bitcoin experienced several rounds of "roller coaster"-like ups and downs. Seeing such a "turbulent" "situation" in the currency circle, miners and mining machine vendors began to panic. The collapse of the "mining circle" is still fresh in our memory
On May 25, when Dongdong Notes returned to Huaqiang Plaza in Huaqiang North, Shenzhen, it found that the mining machine stalls on the second and fourth floors were no longer as bustling as they were a few months ago. For most of the day, only one or two stalls had a few customers asking for inquiries.
"Bitcoin prices have been volatile this year, but there are still people asking about mining machines. It was not until ten days ago that the number of people asking started to decrease." Xiao Xu, a mining machine merchant, told Dongdong Notes that the volatility of Bitcoin prices in the past two weeks is rare in history. For the majority of miners, it can be called a "mining disaster."
Xiao Xu said that in the past two weeks, his stall has not sold a single Bitcoin mining machine, and the situation of other mining machine stalls in the square is not much better. Like other merchants, whenever he sees a passerby passing by his stall, he will take the initiative to stand up and solicit: "Do you want to see the mining machine? We have all kinds of mining machines."
What is puzzling is that Xiao Xu, a merchant, can still chat and laugh freely when talking about the Bitcoin "mining accident". Could it be that the "mining accident" has caused a sharp drop in the sales volume and consultation volume of mining machines, and the merchants at the one-meter counter are not worried?
Xiao Xu waved his hand and said, "We have seen all kinds of storms. Didn't the price of Bitcoin plummet three years ago, causing the mining machines to be unsalable?"
Talking about the situation in 2018 when the price of Bitcoin was "halved" and mining machines were unsalable, Xiao Xu still remembered it vividly. At that time, a large number of mining machines were sold at only 10% or 20% off, and hundreds of mining machine stalls and shops in Huaqiangbei were closed one after another. The stalls that were lucky enough to "survive" almost all switched to selling other digital products.
“Nowadays, (mining machine) merchants basically don’t pile up inventory. They will only take the goods after a customer places an order, and no one will hold inventory in reserve.” Because of this, Xiao Xu believes that the current volatility in Bitcoin prices and the sharp drop in demand for mining machines will at most only reduce operating income for mining machine merchants, and will not lead to unsalable inventory products and cause bankruptcy.
The sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin prices seem to have less impact on the business of mining machine vendors than three years ago. At the same time, in order to cope with the impact of the price fluctuations of mainstream virtual currencies represented by Bitcoin on the demand for mining machines, in the past two weeks, many mining machine stalls, including Xiao Xu’s, have started selling very popular hard disk mining machines one after another.
"The hard disk mining machine is mainly for Chia coin, which only became popular in April. The current coin price is high and the computing power requirements are low." He told Dongdong Notes that compared with mainstream virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Chia coin is relatively niche and the scale of miners engaged in mining is not very large.
In Huaqiang Plaza, Dongdong Notes also saw a large number of stalls hanging billboards for "Qia Hard Drive Mining Machines". But when asked if the price of Bitcoin rises again in the future (plus the emergence of new digital currencies), whether the demand and sales of mining machines will continue to rise, Xiao Xu shook his head: It's difficult, this business is at the end of the road.
After the Bitcoin price plummeted three years ago, the mining machine market was able to "make a comeback", but now it is at the end of the road? The domestic "mining circle" was completely ignored
At Huaqiang Plaza, Dongdong Notes saw that some mining machine stalls had quietly removed the prototypes used for display and re-displayed hard drives, memory, chassis and other computer accessories. Only a few stalls had signs with "XX Mining" on their doors, indicating that the stalls had mining machines for sale.
"The signs (with the word mining) should also be removed over the weekend. There is not much point in making hard drive mining machines now." Merchant A Qiang told Dongdong Notes that the volatile prices of virtual currencies will only have a temporary impact on the "currency circle" and "mining circle."
As prices gradually stabilize, the demand for mining and mining machines will gradually pick up, and merchants should be able to "make a comeback."
However, the State Council Financial Committee’s announcement of a severe crackdown on mining activities has undoubtedly given the mining industry a “death sentence.” Even though emerging virtual currencies are favored by some miners and investors, and the price trend is improving, the process of virtual currency production also originates from “mining” activities, which inevitably involves risks.
“Aren’t hard disk mining machines mining machines? As long as they are still mining machines, they will be shut down by relevant regulatory authorities sooner or later.” In Aqiang’s eyes, the rush to sell Chia hard disk mining machines due to the “volatile” prices of mainstream virtual currencies such as Bitcoin is undoubtedly an act of covering up the truth.
Although merchants can make a small profit by selling hard disk mining machines due to short-term demand, it is destined to be unsustainable. Aqiang speculates that when relevant departments take action to crack down on mining, the first to be "cracked down" will be the mining machine merchants in Huaqiangbei. "After all, Huaqiangbei is the distribution center of mining machines. When the parallel import of mobile phones was cracked down, Huaqiangbei was also the first place to be cracked down."
These views are exactly the fundamental reason why most Huaqiangbei mining machine merchants, including Aqiang, have recently been eager to take down the big signs of "de-mineralization" on their stalls.
Even if someone is soliciting mining machine business, the merchants basically just rely on words. As for how long it can last, Aqiang thinks it will take at most half a year, and at least three or four months.
At the same time, as the price of mainstream virtual currencies such as Bitcoin fluctuates, the industry's enthusiasm for mining has waned, and miners have been selling second-hand mining machines in large quantities. However, unlike three years ago when Bitcoin's price plummeted, merchants in Huaqiangbei are generally cautious about recycling mining machines.
Aqiang admitted that he would not dare to buy back second-hand mining machines even if they were only one-fifth of the price of a new one, in order to avoid a large number of second-hand mining machines being piled up in his hands due to the decline in domestic demand for mining machines. In the face of this round of Bitcoin "mining disasters", no merchant is sure that they can sell second-hand mining machines at a low price.
"Mining farms have either moved to Southeast Asia or miners in China are afraid to take risks and continue mining." Another mining machine merchant, Jie Zi, told Dongdong Notes that due to the high cost of mining, many domestic miners began to move their mines to Southeast Asia and other places two or three years ago. Now with the regulatory turmoil, I believe that a large number of mining farms will move overseas again.
If mining machine merchants want to break the dead end, they can only go overseas with miners to operate mining machine businesses, but the business risks faced by merchants will also increase. With the implementation of supervision, the stalls operating mining machines may disappear again in Huaqiangbei, and it will be difficult for them to make a comeback.
Will users enjoy “graphics card freedom” after the “mining accident”?
The mining machine merchants in Huaqiangbei are not the only ones who are "trembling" due to the volatile prices of mainstream virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and the crackdown on mining activities by relevant ministries and commissions.
Recently, there have been reports online that the price of RTX3060 graphics cards has dropped by 1,500 yuan due to the continued weakening demand for mining and mining machines. Some channel dealers even sold 30 RTX3070 graphics cards to retailers at a price of 240,000 yuan, equivalent to 8,000 yuan per card, in order to get rid of them as soon as possible.
As soon as the rumor came out, a large number of consumers applauded, and some users with urgent needs said that the empty graphics card slot in their new computer could be saved.
Indeed, since the beginning of this year, due to the sharp rise in Bitcoin prices and the rising market sentiment for mining, graphics cards have seen a sharp increase in price, and even a shortage of cards.
According to some media reports, in the first four months of this year, the price of Nvidia's newly launched 30 series graphics cards rose to over 10,000 yuan, more than doubling, and they were often out of stock. In desperation, users with just-in-time needs could only buy the previous generation of graphics cards, which led to the price increase of the previous generation products that had been on the market for several years, and they were also out of stock.
Now, with the industry regulation taking effect, users with urgent needs are hoping that channel "swindlers" who are worried that a large amount of inventory will rot in their hands will reduce the price and sell off the new generation of graphics cards, thus achieving the goal of "graphics card freedom".
So, will the graphics cards held by channel dealers appear on the market soon?
"It shouldn't happen. After the stalls and retailers get the graphics cards at a low price from the wholesale channel, they will probably hold on to them for a while." As a bystander, Xiao Liu, a "backpacker" in Huaqiangbei, is obviously well aware of the business model of the stalls. He told Dongdong Notes that at present, although the channel dealers are afraid of losing graphics cards to themselves and will release a batch of inventory at a low price, they will basically let the stalls wholesale.
Prior to this, a large number of miners sold second-hand graphics cards disassembled from mining machines, which also flowed into the hands of some stalls. As long as accessory retailers and stalls do not release graphics cards for the time being, the phenomenon of hard-to-find cards may continue for a long time. As for the stall merchants creating the illusion of "graphics card shortage", it is to give priority to selling and clearing the inventory of second-hand graphics cards.
"It has become a consensus among many computer enthusiasts that mining cards are unusable. But new cards are out of stock, so second-hand ones have to be used." Xiao Liu said that precisely because the new generation of graphics cards has been out of stock for nearly half a year, some impatient users with urgent needs have turned to buying second-hand graphics cards, among which there are naturally some second-hand mining cards that are new or refurbished and removed from mining machines.
As long as a large number of second-hand mining cards and refurbished graphics cards have not been cleared out, retailers will naturally not easily release new graphics cards. Even now, if users with urgent needs can buy a so-called new generation of performance graphics cards at a relatively reasonable price, it is difficult to guarantee that they will not get refurbished goods.
On the e-commerce platform, Dongdong Notes found that at present, some models of 30 series graphics cards are still out of stock in the official flagship stores of most brands. As for unofficial digital accessories stores, although the prices of the new generation of performance graphics cards have been slightly reduced, it may be difficult for consumers with urgent needs to know whether the products are "new".
The only thing that is certain is that due to the insufficient supply of graphics card production capacity, it will take a long time for users to return to the original market price of graphics cards and achieve true "graphics card freedom". Users who plan to "pick up leaks" in the "mining disaster" should be extremely cautious and keep their eyes open.
|
