Bitcoin has reached the $40,000 mark again. Is the bull market here? See what the big Vs say

Looking back at the precipitous drop in the crypto market a few days ago, many investors are still in shock. On the evening of May 19, the downward trend of Bitcoin triggered a chain reaction, with cryptocurrencies collectively violently halved, tens of billions of funds liquidated, and DeFi products liquidated on a large scale...

During the "519 Horror Night", some people "cut their losses and fled", while others shouted "all in" to buy at the bottom. The current crypto market has recovered some of its lost ground, and Bitcoin has even re-entered the $40,000 mark. But overall, the rebound of cryptocurrencies is still limited. The total market value of cryptocurrencies has evaporated more than 2 trillion yuan from its peak, and the total market value has shrunk to nearly 11 trillion yuan.

With unstable factors such as regulatory policies and Musk's "rebellion", the market sentiment that has suffered a heavy blow is still very fragile. According to data from Alternative, the panic index on May 24 was 10, the lowest in nearly a year. At the same time, data from Glassnode also showed that the STH-SOPR value, an indicator for buying cryptocurrencies in the current bull market cycle, once fell to around 0.9, and the panic selling of short-term holders reached the fourth highest level since 2015. For a time, the debate about the boundary between bull and bear markets was once again raging.

So, what is the main reason for the panic crash? Can the stampede panic be corrected? Is the bull market really over? Let's follow Winful Investment to listen to the opinions of the big Vs?

Musk

On May 20, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that "Tesla has diamond hands", and "diamond hands" means "people who firmly hold a certain asset." Based on the average price of 42,000 bitcoins worth $1.5 billion held by Tesla at the end of the first quarter of 2021, its losses in the past week once reached $280 million, accounting for nearly 47% of the total profit for the quarter.

Vitalik Buterin

During the "519 crash", Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin said in an interview with CNN that it is well known that it is difficult to predict when the bubble will burst. The cryptocurrency craze may have ended or it may end in a few months. Cryptocurrency is ready to be integrated into the mainstream, while four years ago it was the exact opposite. It was not ready at all. Cryptocurrency is no longer just a toy. If Bitcoin's technology remains unchanged, it will be at great risk of being eliminated, while Ethereum may still catch up and surpass Bitcoin in market value in the end.

Zhao Changpeng

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng said on Twitter that I have not sold any cryptocurrency in recent days/months and have no plans to do so in the future. I do not "sell" cryptocurrency, although I do use cryptocurrency to buy things in addition to fiat currency.

In addition, Zhao Changpeng also pointed out that if you are not a swing trader (that is, profiting from volatility), it is better to buy and hold for 5 years or more rather than actively trade. Therefore, only if investors use money that they don’t need in the next few years, they may not need more money later.

Justin Sun

On May 23, Sun Yuchen, the founder of Tron, said that he had bought on dips, buying 4,145 bitcoins at an average price of $36,868, spending a total of $152 million, and 54,153 ethers at an average price of $2,509, for a total of $135 million. The next day, Sun Yuchen posted again that he had continued to increase his holdings, but the scale was smaller than the last time.

At the same time, Sun Yuchen also said that the bull market is definitely not over yet. This decline is an adjustment in the bull market. When the adjustment is in June, there will definitely be another round of bull market in July and August. Regarding this view, he explained that the overall fundamentals of the currency circle are much better than in 2017 (stable currency, DeFi, Coinbase listing, etc.), but in fact the increase in mainstream currencies is not high. At present, Bitcoin has increased by less than double the highest price in the previous round. Most mainstream currencies have not even reached a new high, and have not yet reached the point of bubble overflow. According to the bull market cycle every four years, the current time is also in a mid-to-late stage, and has not completely reached the late stage. The sharp rise of Bitcoin in the late bull market has not yet arrived. On the contrary, Bitcoin has been consolidating for a long time. A short-term sharp drop is definitely a good thing, which is a short-term release of a lot of panic. If it goes as expected, a sharp rebound in the short and medium term is coming. Regulatory factors have been priced in. In the short and medium term, we generally magnify the impact of regional regulation on the price of the currency circle, which is enough to prove in 2017. In addition, the dollar premium of Bitcoin is relatively obvious, which is also a good signal.

Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Fund said that the US dollar is on the verge of devaluation. The last time a similar situation occurred was in 1971. In such an environment, Bitcoin, which has similar properties to gold, is becoming more and more attractive as a savings tool. Personally, he prefers to hold Bitcoin rather than bonds. Ray Dalio himself already holds some Bitcoin, but did not disclose information such as the price and quantity of Bitcoin he bought.

Anthony Scaramucci

Faced with the continued decline in the crypto market, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, said that Bitcoin’s bull market is not over yet, most small retail investors are using leverage, and yesterday (May 20) more than $8.6 billion in crypto assets were all liquidated... (but) in the long run, Bitcoin will rebound.

Scott Minerd

Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, an asset management giant with over $233 billion in assets under management, once believed that the scarcity of Bitcoin and the Fed's massive money printing, coupled with fundamental analysis, should make Bitcoin worth $400,000. However, after experiencing the collapse of the cryptocurrency market, Scott changed his mind and believed that this was a "tulip mania", claiming that "supply has overwhelmed demand", and that it would take "some time" for cryptocurrencies to repair the losses from the previous sharp decline.

Cathie Wood

On May 19, Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Fund, said that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a shortfall, but it is not necessarily at the bottom, but Bitcoin will still rise to $500,000. At the same time, she also said that the correction of Bitcoin prices has increased the chances of crypto ETFs being approved.

As early as March this year, Cathie Wood said that the price of cryptocurrencies may stabilize and eventually behave like bonds. After 40 years of bond bull market, the future 60/40 portfolio will be 60% stocks, 20% bonds, and 20% cryptocurrencies. In addition, the ARK fund also increased its holdings of 1 million shares of the crypto exchange Coinbase.

Mike Novogratz

In the face of the sudden "big dive" in the crypto market on May 19, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said that investors gave up recovering lost profits and sold when the market was down. He expects Bitcoin to remain at the $40,000 level and rise again after a period of consolidation. Currently, more and more institutions are entering the Bitcoin field, and they are no longer "Lonely People on Wall Street."

According to Mike Novogratz, about 85% of his total assets are cryptocurrencies.

Bobby Ong

Bobby Ong, co-founder and COO of CoinGecko, said that the crypto market has been in "bubble territory" in recent weeks, with prices rising too fast and too sharply, and Musk's tweet about "Tesla no longer accepts Bitcoin" and news of China's regulatory policies were the main catalysts for the decline. Despite the fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin may still reach $100,000.

Tracker Investment

WinFocus said that despite the bloodbath in the crypto market, Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, a US listed company and provider of business intelligence software, said that the company now holds 111,000 bitcoins and has not sold a single satoshi.

As of now, MicroStrategy has purchased a total of approximately 111,000 bitcoins.

Alex Krüger

Crypto analyst and economist Alex Krüger believes that, in addition to Ethereum, a large number of crypto assets have been rising, some sharply, since Tesla announced that it would not accept more Bitcoin. This is a sign of the maturity of the crypto market, not what a bear market looks like. Investors with diversified portfolios or good token picking skills are not even affected by Bitcoin's temporary downturn, which is rare. Historically, when Bitcoin crashes, everything crashes with it.

Josh Younger

Josh Younger, head of interest rate derivatives strategy at JPMorgan, said in a recent report that the current performance of the cryptocurrency market does have similarities to the peak from December 2017 to January 2018, but there are also differences between this volatility and the end of 2017. First, the market turmoil seems to be mainly in North America, while prices in Europe and Asia are much more stable. Although market depth has declined in recent liquidations, it is still healthy overall. There is evidence that the microstructure of the cryptocurrency market is resilient: the increase in volatility is somewhat regional, market depth has declined but not by much, and derivatives pricing has adjusted quickly enough to retain a considerable portion of the leveraged long base. None of this supports the view that we are in a vicious cycle of falling prices.

Carl Icahn

American billionaire Carl Icahn said cryptocurrencies will continue to exist "in some form." However, Icahn also said that he is studying cryptocurrencies and has not started buying them yet.

Robert Shiller

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said that some of the hottest trades in the market are forming bubbles, especially real estate, stocks and cryptocurrencies. At the same time, he also said that cryptocurrencies are impressive technologies, but the ultimate source of value is so vague that it has much to do with our narratives rather than reality.

As early as 2018, Shiller questioned whether Bitcoin would exist for 100 years and said that Bitcoin's future was under threat. Even if Bitcoin continued to exist, it would eventually be different from what it is now due to other problems such as hard forks or reduced value.

Laszlo Hanyecz

Laszlo Hanyecz, who bought pizza with 10,000 bitcoins 11 years ago, said, "I buy bitcoin whenever I can. When I see it going down, I double down."

Every time an opportunity comes, we choose to hold on to our coins, because the current price can only make us a little rich, but not free. When the price drops again, we regret not selling it earlier. You see, this is human nature. People are never satisfied and always want to maximize profits, missing out on opportunities to cash out and increase their capital.

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