Has the Bitcoin price hit bottom? Derivatives and on-chain data suggest further downside could be brewing. Since Bitcoin’s pullback to $30,000 on May 12, traders have been struggling to time a trend reversal, with the community beginning to look everywhere for signs of a trend reversal, including technical patterns, U.S. CPI inflation data, and Bitcoin exchange deposits. However, two days later, Bitcoin managed to break through $40,000, but the move lasted less than six hours. Meanwhile, other traders deduced that a retest of the $30,000 bottom was needed before a rebound could be made. Delta Skew call options allow buyers to buy Bitcoin at a fixed price when the contract expires. On the other hand, put options provide buyers with insurance against falling prices. A 25% delta skew that oscillates between negative 10% and positive 10% is generally considered neutral. This equilibrium situation persisted until May 16, when Bitcoin failed to hold the critical support level of $47,000, which had held for 76 days. In the past 30 days, there were 2.2 million BTC active, which is significantly higher than the levels before October 2020. |
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