Trends will not change due to personal wishes, the industry is like this, and the market is also like this.

BTC Market Analysis

Information from the blockchain world seems to be dying down on our side. The bullish and bearish views on major information platforms are decreasing, while the situation overseas is still relatively in full swing. Fortunately, in such a situation, many people are still persisting. Various small market quotations and many projects that are shelled in the name of blockchain are still causing various small hypes in a small range.

I have to say that we have a hard time in the application of serious projects, but in the speculative shell market, we have speculators and game makers everywhere. Recently, I have come across many old business models of consumer rebates and recharge business models, which are now all covered with the beautification of blockchain and are still popular. There are also various beautiful mining mechanisms, and these projects have never been heard of. Are you scared? I am trembling with fear, but the participants are full of faith.

The world is changing, but it seems that the cognitive structure of the participants has never changed; after a few idle words and a brief sigh, we need to return to normal analysis; let’s look at two pieces of news first:

The first is "official news, the official website of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) recently released a cryptocurrency working report. The report stated that cryptocurrency investors tend to be educated young Internet users, and their education level is generally above the average. Among various cryptocurrencies, XRP and ETH investors have the highest education level, followed by BCH, BTC, XLM, EOS and LTC. The highest income level is also XRP and ETH investors, followed by XLM, LTC, EOS, BTC and BCH. The report is based on 3,372 samples in 2019. The Bank for International Settlements also stated that the future of the cryptocurrency industry lies in whether it can attract new investors while retaining existing investors."

The sample size of this report may be relatively small, but it still has certain reference value. The education level and income level are positively correlated, which is a logical result.

The second is that "according to relevant crypto analysts, Bitcoin's market share is only 0.13%, while cash, stocks, bonds, gold, silver, art, collectibles and real estate have a market share of 99.87%. By 2025-2027, this figure will definitely rise to 1.0%-1.5%, and the price of Bitcoin will be between 280,000 and 420,000 US dollars. During this period, the unbacked US dollar will fall another 20%."

We look at the point of view of this news dialectically. We can be sure that BTC's market investment share will definitely rise. It now accounts for only 0.13%, and the probability of rising to 1.5% in the future is very high. As for where the price of BTC will go in the future, I think we should calculate it based on the total global currency volume and market environment at that time, so the specific price needs to be discussed, but there is no doubt that the market still has a lot of room for expansion. BTC is still a good target for crypto asset allocation, but it may no longer be the best.

In the short term, it is still in the 4H cycle range of 33,000-35,000, and the market volatility will become smaller and smaller with shrinking volume. The current market is cautious, and whether the position of 33,000 can stand firm and rebound again is still under discussion. So when it reaches 33,000, we will judge based on the market. In essence, BTC will not fluctuate much at present, unless there are major variables. The mainstream market sentiment still depends on the situation of ETH for adjustment.

ETH Market Analysis

As mentioned above, BTC may not be the best configuration target anymore. So when is the best configuration target now? We believe that the configuration target with the best certainty should be ETH. This has been our view since ETH went to 1800. Even when BTC was at 60,000 USD, we still believed that ETH was the best configuration target. From the current point of view, ETH is indeed a very good configuration target.

At present, ETH is inside the bottom weekly axis, and has returned to the previous weekly axis of about 2300. The bottom position of the bottom range of 1700-2200 has not yet formed a complete bottom structure. Therefore, it is necessary to confirm the position of about 2000-2200 for secondary confirmation. At present, ETH dominates the direction of the entire market, which is worthy of our long-term tracking and attention. In the short term, wait until the position of 2000-2200 is adjusted before deciding on the next operation, watch more and do less!

other

What kind of card is Polkadot? It's falling so fast! Polkadot has been criticized in various ways. After carefully looking at the daily structure of Polkadot, it is indeed not very good. From the current point of view, although there is no volume in the market, two falling centers have been formed in the structure. Of course, the latest center still needs time to complete. As long as there is any disturbance in the market, Polkadot will inevitably go to the next level, and then the trend divergence of the two platform centers will be formed.

I guess you may not understand this. As for the principle, I will talk about it at length when I have the chance. Today I will first talk about the conclusion: Polkadot will inevitably fall. From this point of view, others cannot escape this fate.

I hope everyone can stay calm, get rid of the luck and fear in their minds, make plans early, and think less about hope in a sad way.

For other leaders, their current decline will lead to their future glory. Although now is not the right time, there is indeed a lot of room for imagination in the future.