There are three treasures for leeks: cut meat at the bottom; recover capital and stop profit; add positions at the top

Overnight, Bitcoin (BTC) expanded its decline and retreated to the 42k level. Currently, this position is at the level of sideways consolidation in early January. Whether it can hold this position, or hold the support of the 30-day line of $40,000, depends on how many of the positions added from the bottom of 33k to the local rebound high of 45k since the "122" market capitulation are long-term HODLERs, and how many are speculators who flee at the sight of the wind.

It is undeniable that the entire market is still in a downward trend since last year's Double 11. From November 11 to December 11, it was one month, from December 11 to January 11, it was two months, and from January 11 to February 11, it was three months. The market has been stuck in a bearish dilemma for three months and cannot extricate itself. This test of patience is even greater than the two-month low-level wash after May 19 last year.

Last year, the so-called "519", if counted from April 14 when the downward trend began, to the last bottom of 720, also experienced a bearish test of more than 3 months. However, that time, the market experienced the "519" surrender in the first month, and the next two months were mainly low-level washouts. This time, after the collapse and test of $40,000 on December 4, it continued to break the bottom line, and collapsed again on January 22, completely falling below the low point confirmed on December 4, and plunged to the position of $30,000.

This phased collapse has caused a lot of speculators who bought the bottom in advance but lacked the mentality of long-term holding to complain bitterly. Now that the market has just pulled its feet out of the quagmire, if there is any disturbance, those speculators who bought the bottom and were trapped will definitely flee. This is the so-called "recovering the capital and stopping profit" - if you don't run now, will you wait for the market to fall again and be trapped again?

Some new readers may not know what the "three treasures of leeks" are. You can review the article "Miscellaneous Thoughts" on June 30 last year - leeks have three treasures: cutting meat at the bottom; recovering capital and taking profits; and adding positions at the top.

In early November, when the market broke upward, I added positions at the top of more than 60,000 dollars, and even chased high to open leverage. On January 22, when the market collapsed and surrendered, I sold at the bottom of more than 30,000 dollars. These two, plus the bottom-fishing quilt mentioned above, gritted my teeth and held on until the rebound. Once the rebound reached or was close to the return of the investment, I saw that the market was shaky, and I quickly sold to protect my capital and "recovered the investment and stopped profit." With these three magic operations, you are a qualified leek.

This operation can ensure losses, or at least no money. If you are a lazy trader who rarely trades, such as only trading a few times along the weekly line in this wave of decline, you will only lose a few times. If you are a diligent trader who chases the rise and falls in every small wave of the daily line, trading as many as a dozen or even dozens of times, then the losses can double up.

Method is the method to incur losses. The more diligent you are, the faster and greater the losses will be.

Some people say, "I am not afraid of losing money, I will just consider it as paying tuition fees." However, will the more you lose, the better you will be? Actually, not necessarily. Without the right method and deliberate practice, you will only fall into low-level repetition. Just like an amateur who can't match the level of a professional athlete even if he plays for a lifetime.

My articles are mostly reviews, replays and reflections, but less analysis and predictions. When the level is low, there is no high-level consciousness, and analysis is prone to fall into the self-proving trap of looking for evidence for the argument, while predictions are easily distorted by appearances, hopes and interests.

There are 10,000 Hamlets in 10,000 people. Correct attribution analysis is never an easy task, let alone finding a decisive solution. Just like the Chinese men's football team, which has been ineffective for decades, you can find 100 people who can give you 100 reasons for not being able to do so. But no one can tell the real reason, and even if they do, they can't convince everyone. In other words, if there is a consensus on what the problem is, the problem may have been solved long ago.

Knowing where the problem lies is knowledge, and solving the problem is action. According to Wang Yangming's view, knowledge must be expressed as action, otherwise it cannot be considered true knowledge. "Knowledge is the idea of ​​action, action is the effort of knowledge; knowledge is the beginning of action, and action is the completion of knowledge." Knowing where the problem lies, if it cannot be transformed into action to solve the problem, is nothing more than empty talk, commonly known as "mouth cannon skills" or "keyboard knight". Therefore, Wang Yangming said: "Conscience, there is nothing wrong, and conscious action is knowledge."

The path of investment practice has never relied on paper analysis and unrealistic predictions, but on the solid unity of knowledge and action, "building a strong fortress and fighting a stupid battle", and the iteration and continuous improvement of "thinking-practice-review-practice again" step by step.