The market is up and down, you must practice it yourself to know it

Overnight, Bitcoin once again had a bullish rally, reaching a high of 39k, showing that it was finally going to rebound. When the bulls who were unwilling to give up could no longer hold back and increased their positions, Bitcoin suddenly made a comeback and went straight back to 37k. This back-and-forth cleaning will continue until the weak hands almost no longer believe in any rebound, but start to reduce their positions and flee every time there is a rebound, and exhaust their chips. The market will not give up until the weak hands are completely cleaned out.

When it rises, it will be 100,000, and when it falls, it will be 10,000. When it rises sharply, it is "a quick return to the bull market", and when it falls sharply, it is "the early stage of the bear market". Trend thinking is very harmful. The secondary market is driven by game theory, "the opposite is the movement of the Tao", if it falls too much, it will rise, and if it rises too much, it will fall. Trends tend to destroy themselves rather than continue. However, Soros's reflexivity says that trends will strengthen themselves. Rising stocks will attract people, thereby accelerating the rise, and falling stocks will drive people away, thereby accelerating the fall. Trends will strengthen themselves and accelerate themselves, but the consequence of strengthening is to accelerate the arrival of trend collapse.

Subjectivism and armchair theorizing are unacceptable. If you do not practice anything, and do not discover the real problems and laws from practice and action, but sit and discuss, talking about this and that problem, you will not be able to discover the real key problems, nor find the laws and methods in the details, and in the end it will not help solve the problems at all. Learning is not just learning from books, but learning from practice. Only by pondering, refining, and summarizing from action and practice can we truly master specific knowledge.

The unity of knowledge and action is exactly what this means: only the results of action can show whether the cognition is really in place. Just like playing basketball, no matter how many books you read, how many theories and methods your head is filled with, and how well you memorize them, you can't be called "good at playing basketball". Only when you play two games on the court and your hands and feet can play well under the coordination of the brain, can you be called "good at playing basketball".

In other words, only when you can take action can you say that you have truly mastered this knowledge. This is true for war, playing ball, and investing. If you know the theoretical knowledge by heart and can explain the model data very well, but fail when you take action, then you cannot be called "a good investor".

There are many people who are good at bragging. They always talk big, like "I am familiar with XXX" or "I am very proficient in XXX", but then they will find all kinds of excuses not to do it, such as being too busy, or the matter is too small and not worth it. All these excuses can basically be laughed off.

There are also many people who are good at deceiving and know that results are the bottom line. So, they start by either showing off their hard work, such as having a wallet balance of several million dollars, or they brag about how they have earned an astonishing amount of money by doing something, in order to quickly gain the trust and admiration of the deceived party.

It should be said that the latter type of liar has a much better grasp of human psychology than the former type of boastful armchair strategist. Many people can easily see through the boastful but will be fooled by the liar. This further verifies the truth mentioned above, that is, only the results of practice are the only standard for testing knowledge, methods and truth.

It's just that we were fooled and deceived by the scammers and made a logical error, a very common logical error, that is, the converse of a proposition may not be true.

To put it in a more formal way, the proposition "A therefore B" is true, but it does not mean that its converse proposition "B therefore A" must be true. Someone who truly masters the technique of playing basketball must be good at it. But we cannot say that playing basketball well means that he has truly mastered the technique. It may be because he cheated, or for other reasons. Similarly, someone who knows how to invest must have good investment results. But we cannot say that if the investment results are good, he will definitely invest. Because it is possible that the investment results are fake, or someone else invested for him, etc. Many people cannot get around this, so they are easily deceived.

If a proposition is true, its contrapositive must be true. If you master the technique of playing ball, you will play ball well. So, if you don't play ball well, you must not have mastered the technique of playing ball. These two propositions are the contrapositives of each other, they are both true and false. If you know how to invest, the investment results will be good. So, if the investment results are not good, you must not know how to invest.

Therefore, those who brag about their investment returns are most likely malicious, and even if they are not scammers, they have ulterior motives. As for those who beat their chests and stamp their feet, saying that they have lost a lot of money, lost a lot of money, and failed in investment, it is basically safe to say that such people do not know how to invest.