This round of bull market has lasted for 463 days...

The crypto market fluctuated slightly overnight and remained around the 38k line.

The time has come to March 8th. Starting from the full recovery on November 30, 2020 ($19,686) or December 14 ($19,281), this bull market has lasted for 463 days or 449 days.

Some people always have a question: Is it still a bull market now?

The current price level of Bitcoin (BTC) is 38k, which is still twice the highest point of the bull market on December 16, 2017, the so-called "previous high" of 19k, almost exactly twice.

In other words, even if you bought at the top of the mountain at the highest point on December 16, 2017 and held on until now, you still have a 100% return rate.

If this is not a bull market, then what is it?

In other words, buying now is equivalent to buying at a premium of 1 times the "previous high".

Consider the buyer’s psychology.

Many people fantasize that Bitcoin will fall back to $20,000 ("20s"), or even fall below the "previous high" and return to the "1s".

I dreamed of Jiangnan overnight.

The price 5 years ago is like first love, sweet as honey in memory, but always hard to look back.

5 years of youth, 5 years of time, 5 years of life in full bloom, like the singing of the grassland, burning like fire, free and turning into wisps of green smoke.

"We can never go back."

The increase of cosmic entropy and the eternal law of thermal expansion transform energy into external chaos and internal order.

Blocks, one by one, tick-tick-tick, just moving forward.

The past cannot be changed, but the future can still be pursued.

On January 16, despite the world’s disapproval, I wrote “A Speculative Model for the Ending Time of Bitcoin’s Fourth Bull Market.”

Price levels and arrival times cannot be observed at the same time. This is the "uncertainty principle" that I have talked about many times.

Anything that attempts to speculate “Y price level at X time” is entertainment.

What I write is no exception.

Entertainment aside, the article still calculated a few numbers and speculated on three dates: February 6, March 8, and June 15.

The first day has passed and Bitcoin is on its way to rebound upwards to around 41k.

The second day is today. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating downward again to the 38k line.

The third day has not yet arrived.

In the past few days, more people really couldn't bear it anymore, more KOLs began to quit the circle, and more big Vs began to sing bear songs.

The bull market ended in an unclear way?

We are now at the underestimation level of the S2F model and the middle track of the power-law price corridor (see "Bitcoin's Price Corridor" on July 24, 2021).

It is unknown whether we will continue to move forward on the middle line like "skipping stones on water", or sink into the water, ending the bull market and turning into a bear market completely.

These are two imaginations.

One imagination is that the waves of the bull market are like the rebound of a ball hitting the ground, each time weaker than the last, and eventually ending.

Another way of thinking about it is that the bull market is like steaming water in a pressure cooker, adding fire from the bottom and releasing air from the top. The longer it lasts, the greater the pressure.

Either way, we use our linear perception of the physical world to analogize the nonlinear financial market.

The financial market is nonlinear and chaotic.

Like the weather, changeable and unpredictable.

We cannot be sure which prediction is correct, but the only thing we can be sure of is that the prediction that is 100% certain must be incorrect.

Instead of worrying about what this big V said or what people in that group are saying, it is better to just do your own homework.

Eight-character formula.

Buy when no one is interested.

All good things will come unexpectedly.

All it takes is a little more patience.

The upper nine of the Yi hexagram says: If you are not persistent in your determination, it will be disastrous.

Perseverance and persistence are the basic requirements on the road to success.

mutual encouragement.

(Official account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: reply “Planet” to the official account)