I think people may have overlooked a very critical thing, which is that after ETH switched to POS, there is a dramatic change in the actual daily output of ETH and the current daily output of ETH. Let me use some analogies to illustrate how perverted this change is. The production reduction effect after the transition to POS is called "triple halving" in the ETH community. This is used to benchmark the halving effect of BTC. BTC's production is halved approximately every four years, and Ethereum's output will be reduced by about 90% after the merger. This is equivalent to three Bitcoin halvings happening at the same time! Ethereum will experience a reduction in issuance in an instant, while the Bitcoin network will take 12 years to achieve this effect. Think about it... Under the current POW model, Ethereum issues about 13,500 ETH per day, accounting for about 4.3% of the total ETH supply each year. However, after the transition to POS, the daily output model is determined by the number of ETH actively staked on the network. Based on the current number of stakes, it is predicted that the daily output is between 1280-1500. When the merger occurs, the annual issuance rate will drop to between 0.3% and 0.4%. In comparison, Bitcoin currently issues 900 BTC per day, or about 1.7% of the total BTC supply per year. The next two halvings will reduce Bitcoin issuance to about 0.8% and 0.4% in 2024 and 2028, respectively. With Ethereum's expected issuance falling to between 0.3% and 0.4% after the merger, Bitcoin's issuance will not match the effect of ETH's POS switch until 2028. When triple halving is combined with the EIP-1559 burning mechanism, it is expected that as long as the Ethereum network remains active, it will almost always be an asset with a decreasing total amount, thus achieving a truly deflationary asset, which means that the ETH in your hands will become increasingly scarce, and of course, more valuable. Of course, all of this is just what you heard, and it may not be reflected in your mind very intuitively. But when the transition to POS is completed and people see the real situation, if it is as we expected, will people rush to buy ETH? In addition, these days, my fans have also seen that I have discovered so many ETH whales frantically buying ETH, and there are data showing that more than 1 million ETH were withdrawn from centralized exchanges throughout March. The inventory of the entire exchange has reached the lowest value in more than 3 years. The wealthy are buying, so why should we not be optimistic? Why not follow suit? At least the current price is still very attractive before the switch to POS. Ethereum merger countdown: https://wenmerge.com/ Original link: https://twitter.com/GanQiang5/status/1506515669168242697 |
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