OP Valuation: See how much your OP airdrop is worth

This article sorts out the opinions of self-encrypted KOL olimpio.eth on personal social media platforms. BlockBeats has compiled and translated them as follows:

On April 27, Optimism announced the launch of its ecological token OP and released the token economics and airdrop plan. This article will attempt to value OP.

To estimate the price and airdrop value of OP, we need:

1. Analyze OP’s token economics;

2. Compare it with other protocols and related indicators;

3. Analysis based on 3 valuation expectations: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic.

Token Economics

The airdrop accounts for 19% of the total: in the first phase of the airdrop plan, 5% is unlocked directly, and the remaining 14% is allocated by the DAO.

Check the number of airdrops in Phase 1

Core contributors (project teams) account for 19% of the total.

Seed investors account for 17% of the total.

Ecosystem Fund accounts for 25% of the total: The goal is to develop the Optimism ecosystem through grants, partnerships, and incubation of new protocols. Basically, it is a guarantee for the future development of its ecosystem.

Retroactive public product funds account for 20% of the total:

Vitalik once said: “The core principle is simple: it is easier to agree on things that worked in the past than things that will be useful in the future.”

So basically retroactive rewards are for projects that have already contributed to the ecosystem. Like, SNX?

Circulating Supply

Total OP supply: 4.29 billion

Initial circulation supply: about 32.5% (emphasis added)

Token contract address: https://optimistic.etherscan.io/token/0x420000000000000000000000000000000000000042

OP Valuation

Currently, Optimism’s TVL is $483 million. After the launch of the token, yield mining activities may appear, so it is expected that the TVL will grow significantly by then. We should look forward to this.

Metis and Boba networks have strong similarities with Optimism. They have all issued tokens, and the circulation volume accounts for about 30% of the total.

Metis’ market cap to TVL ratio is 1.3, while Boba’s is 3.27.

This means that Metis has much more “assets under management” than Boba relative to its token valuation.

If Optimism is valued at Metis' market cap to TVL ratio of 1.3, Optimism's market cap would be $628 million, which means a FDV (fully diluted valuation) of $1.93 billion. At the same time, the price of OP would be $0.45 .

If calculated based on Boda's market cap to TVL ratio of 3.27, Optimism's market cap would be $1.58 billion, which means a FDV of $4.86 billion. At the same time, OP's price would be $1.13 .

Immutable X has a market cap to TVL ratio of 6.72. This means that Optimism’s market cap will be $3.25 billion, which means a $10 billion FDV. At the same time, OP’s price will be $2.32.

If we compare AVAX of Avalanche Network, we need to use FDV/TVL instead of market cap/TVL because their circulation ratios are quite different. AVAX's FDV/TVL ratio is 4.94, so: Optimism's market cap will be $780 million, which means $2.4 billion in FDV. At the same time, OP's price will be $0.55.

Valuation under different expectations

Pessimistic expectations:

FDV = $500 million, OP price $0.11.

Neutral expectations:

FDV = $2 billion, OP price $0.46.

Optimistic expectations:

FDV = $5 billion, OP price $1.16.

Exceeding expectations:

FDV = $20 billion, OP price $4.65.

Note: AVAX's current FDV is $40 billion, and even if it beats estimates, OP is only half of AVAX's valuation.

In addition, after the token is circulated, if profitable mining occurs and TVL grows rapidly, OP will also be affected by market hype. This article does not discuss this, but it will definitely happen . This article mainly values ​​OP based on the ratio of FDV to TVL. Different valuation methods will produce different results. This is just one person's opinion and is for reference only.

Original author: olimpio.eth

Original translation: 0x711, BlockBeats