My friends, the following are the thoughts I have learned from my experience in the cryptocurrency industry over the past four years: 1. 95% of cryptocurrency participants have never read the project’s white paper. The vast majority of us are literally just being marketed to a cryptocurrency by someone we trust, mimicking their moves and hoping the coins we buy only go up. 2. 90% of participants in the cryptocurrency world cannot explain how blockchain works. Most participants only care about money (and decentralization I guess). 3. Bitcoin maximalists and Ethereum maximalists feel equally narrow-minded and short-sighted. I believe that mass adoption of blockchain and cryptocurrency will occur in ways we cannot predict, with network effects popping up out of nowhere. 4. Most DeFi (decentralized finance) projects are an unsustainable Ponzi scheme, and those who are best at it just treat it as a game to make money. That's the truth. 5. NFT (Non-Fungible Token) is the future and it will drive more cryptocurrency adoption. 6. A completely decentralized future is impossible. Most of what we call decentralized today are not decentralized in nature. We just trust crypto projects more than non-crypto projects for some reason. 7. The biggest threat to Bitcoin is not Ethereum, but Monero and Dogecoin. 8. The most binary coin imaginable is ZEC, being able to flip a switch on privacy is why the world is so corrupt today. 9. Changpeng Zhao has done a lot of good for this field, but he doesn’t get the credit he deserves. I believe he is really working hard to contribute to the decentralized future, even harder than any other exchange owner. 10. The closest thing to the Metaverse we've ever had is RuneScape. All current games should learn from RuneScape and use it as the bible for making money in games. 11. The ease of seed funding has changed Crypto Twitter forever, and the community will never be the same. The old guard in the cryptocurrency world is now venture capital, you have to get used to this. 12. The ease of seed round financing will make people more susceptible to influence than in the secondary market. This will be the ultimate driver of a multi-year bear market. 13. Most angel investors are parasites. Every penny you give to an angel investor should actually go to a loyal community member. 14. The host of your favorite podcast, stream, or space started a podcast, stream, or space just to increase their value props and get into more seed rounds. That Twitter space wasn’t sponsored, it was just that the host happened to be assigned during the guest’s project. 15. Most “respected” VCs in this space only tweet about their seed rounds. They are not seen as paid salespeople, whereas influencers are, probably because they are good at using clever language to make people think that the projects they invest in are high-quality. 16. There is no longer a distinction between crypto influencers and venture capitalists. I actually think the pros outweigh the cons here because it’s basically been made accessible to anyone in the community to gain influencer and venture capital status. 17. People often complain about big foundations, but without them funding so many projects when no one else wanted to, we wouldn’t have seen the massive explosion of the cryptocurrency ecosystem over the past two years, enabling so many people to make money. Yes, they may actually sell their tokens, but the smart ones will make money from it. 18. It’s not easy to make money in the cryptocurrency world. If you find yourself thinking that making money is as easy as breathing, then it may be time to take some profits. You find your own way to make money through your own experience, but this is very difficult to do. 19. We are still in the very early stages. Cryptocurrency has unlimited upside, and decentralization is a competitive advantage that will incentivize everyone on the planet to join in the fun. 20. It is always easier to be bearish than bullish. Bull markets are something everyone rushes into without a second thought, while bear markets become something people shirk like they are chickens. People think bear markets sound easier to survive than bull markets, which is why most middle-class people tend to have this mindset when it comes to all aspects of life. 21. You probably aren’t learning anything on crypto Twitter, you’re just looking for tweets to validate your thoughts or to comfort yourself. Most actionable alpha comes in the form of spam posts, which requires deep cognition to understand. 22. UST is not a Ponzi scheme UST’s yield is unsustainable, but the fact that this yield is declining over time does not mean it will collapse. Algo stablecoins are the future, and UST will be seen as the Bitcoin of stablecoins. 23 Justin Sun is a genius. You can hate him, but you have to admit that he is much better than you. 24. We all screwed up on BAYC (Bored Ape). Yuga Labs will be even better than Opensea. 25. Trying to short the strongest coin in a macro downtrend is just as foolish as trying to long the weakest coin in a macro uptrend. Stop trying to be a hero; you care more about being right than making money. 26. GlassNode analytics is one of the worst things on crypto Twitter. On-chain analysis is extremely easy to manipulate, and the only alpha in these charts is that they are useful for padding hackers’ wallets. 27. Nansen is one of the most valuable tools in cryptocurrency. To figure out which wallet address owners are doing what and follow them instead of your favorite influencer, that’s Alpha. 28. At least 80% of influencers are at the same level as the average person in the community. It takes at least a year of following someone to figure out whether they have so many followers because they are smart, lucky, or opportunistic. 29. The easiest way to spot a pimp is through a bland post that is treated like bible when the prediction happens to be correct and people may only realize it later. Wordplay is an art, and storytellers run the world. 30. Most influential people make their money as investors, not traders. They rely on participation to maintain their trading volume and will do anything to protect and grow their account. 31. Some of the smartest people in the world are on Crypto Twitter. Their intelligence and awareness are breathtaking, and they use Twitter as an outlet to manage stress and post their views and opinions. You must follow them. 32. Everyone makes mistakes sometimes, always. If you truly believe that the influencers you follow never make mistakes, because they are deliberately being ambiguous and misleading their followers, portraying themselves as something they cannot be, please don’t believe these people. 33. Some people’s actions are actually correct so often that it seems incredible. A few people I can think of are gcr, hsaka, ansem, CL, HA, and loom. Don't ignore their analysis and opinions just because they like a project you don't. Everyone makes a lot of mistakes and you shouldn't hold it against them. 34. People like nika, krillin and Pierre can teach you enough about MA to create your own system. They give away too much Alpha. Nika is the true source of it and it has had a much greater impact on MA culture than people understand. 35. Zhu Su, Barry, and Arthur Hayes are not trying to psych you out. They all offer meaningful insights, you just remember the times they hurt you more than they helped you. This is human nature. 36. When it comes to technical analysis, less is more. SM @SMtrades_ has the neatest charts in the crypto space, more of you should try to be like him. 37. You don't need technical analysis to be a good trader. You need to study reflexivity and figure out what market participants are thinking. If everyone who could have bought it was bullish, then they have already bought it, and the price of the coin is likely to fall next. 38. Leverage is the fastest way to lose everything. Cryptocurrency is either in easy mode or hard mode, there is no middle ground. Your goal is to survive in hard mode to enjoy easy mode. Use levers in hard mode to make sure you will lose everything. 39. Holding too many currencies is not necessarily a good thing. There is no difference between holding 20 different altcoins and holding 3 different altcoins. Have firm conviction and solidify your bet. 40. Most of you would be better off throwing your all into Ethereum or Dogecoin and lying down. No post can teach you how to control your greed. You have to learn this for yourself. |
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