The new concept of encryption has not yet appeared. Is there still a chance for the next bull market?

From DeFi Summer 2020 to today, we have discussed many topics, from DeFi to mining, from NFT to blockchain games, from the metaverse to Web3. Almost most of the hot topics in this round of bull market have been covered. So far, it has become difficult to find new topics.

Generally speaking, the market will reach an emotional high point in this situation. If there is no new topic, the market will become unsustainable until the long bear market brings everyone back to reality. But before this process comes, the seeds of the next bull market will germinate.

Just like the blockchain games, open finance, and NFTs in 2017, DeFi in 2020/GameFi and NFTs in 2021 have made a comeback, and even the DAO before 2017 is now being hyped by many people. However, the market is gradually falling, but we have not waited for the birth of new concepts. This may not be a good thing. In other words, if the market remains like this, I can only hope for the opportunities of Web3 in the next bull market.

Why do I have this idea? In fact, I have mentioned it in some articles before. It takes a long time for a technology or concept to be proposed and gradually known to the public. This process is actually a buffer and a stable foundation. If the foundation is not solid, problems will easily arise, resulting in some losses. Only when the foundation is solid will there be explosive growth.

Let's continue with the above case:

The first one we talk about is DAO. The DAO concept is a typical case of a rapid growth with a weak foundation, a setback, a long period of dormancy, and finally a strong development. The early The DAO incident was actually like this. At the time of The DAO, the corresponding foundation of blockchain was not perfect, unlike today's experienced developers and third-party auditing agencies. At the same time, The DAO was particularly complex, so it was highly likely that something would go wrong.

Looking at the current blockchain market, are there any teams that have created the same functions as The DAO? The answer is that there are still no teams that have created the same functions as The DAO. So you can see why.

The second thing we are talking about is NFT. NFT was born during the CryptoKitties era, which was the peak of the bull market at the end of 2017. Why was it at that time? Maybe many people have not thought about it seriously. In fact, from a probability perspective, the probability of new technologies or new concepts being born at the peak of the bull market is very high, because there are always some talented people or experts outside the industry who enter the blockchain field with previous ideas, thus achieving a situation where new things are created by combining blockchain. NFT is a typical example.

Why didn’t NFT become popular in the subsequent bear market? The main reason is that the foundation is not solid, and people are not yet receptive to new things. It was not until several years of development that NFT was widely used in blockchain games, crypto art and other fields. Only then did it suddenly combine with DeFi at the end of 2020, and then explode on its own, and then swept the concept of the metaverse, thus becoming a hot target for speculation.

Thirdly, we talk about the metaverse. In fact, the core of the metaverse is two things: one is games, and the other is VR/AR. Games are the focus, which is different from chain games. Chain games focus on economic models, games focus on scenes and experiences, and VR/AR also focuses on scenes and experiences. VR/AR and games are actually concepts that Web2 has, so these foundations all exist. It’s just that they were proposed by Roblox at the beginning of last year, and then they became popular. Then the NFT in the currency circle was combined with chain games, forming the current situation.

I believe that similar examples will continue to occur in the future, but the only difference is that no new concepts have emerged at the end of this bull market. In other words, if there is no new trigger point in the next bull market, it will appear particularly dull. If there is, then at most the concept of Web3 may become a support.

In addition to Web3, the Metaverse will also become the support for the next bull market. The biggest similarity between the Metaverse and Web3 is that their concepts are very large, large enough to include many things. At that time, the hyped hot spots will also be prolonged, so it will be easy to continue until the next bull market. However, there will also be a problem here. These concepts that have been hyped are unlikely to be hyped up again collectively. Therefore, it will be more difficult for a market similar to DeFi Summer to appear again.

What about other things? For example, DeFi, after one year of development, is no longer so popular, mainly because its hype is coming to an end, and there is not much innovation in gameplay, so the market valuation will also decrease, eventually leading to a mediocre situation after one year.

Finally, we can see that these often attract attention only during the period of rapid growth of the sector. When the industry enters a period of stable development, it is relatively difficult to continue to increase the number of users due to the huge user base. Of course, these do not affect the industry's continued progress. For example, when we see the price of DeFi tokens fall, it does not mean that DeFi is not working or that DeFi is going to burst. On the contrary, DeFi continues to develop, and the threshold is getting lower and lower, closer to the operation of ordinary people. Even after market education, most people have understood the products and ecology of DeFi. At this time, DeFi needs a process of filling the bubble, rather than the result of the bubble bursting.

Back to the original question, if there is still no eye-catching new thing in the market within the next year, then the best period for the crypto world may be over. Of course, this does not mean that there are no opportunities in the crypto world. On the contrary, it is time to focus on the issue of large-scale deployment.