Betting against LUNA, a fatal dream of getting rich

Overnight, Bitcoin (BTC) is still fluctuating around $30,000 to bottom out. After the LUNA/UST death spiral in the crypto market a few days ago, it will take some time to test whether the frightened market can successfully bottom out here.

There are also rumors that LUNA founder Do Kwon did not use the stockpiled bitcoins to save the market at all, but allowed the death spiral to free fall.

In other words, the ones who are buried like moths to the flame are all leeks. The project owners and investors have not made any efforts at all, but just watched from the sidelines.

Well, who would want to spit out the pancake once it’s in their mouth?

No matter how sincere his apology was, his heart was as clear as a mirror. He knew that before the death spiral hit the bottom and the over-issuance mechanism was stopped, no matter how much money was invested, it would be like throwing meat buns at a dog and it would never come back.

It still took them two days to finally shut down the over-issuance mechanism.

Afterwards, he apologized on Twitter, saying that it was "heartbreaking" to see that my invention caused some people to lose money.

If apologies work, what's the point of prisons?

The most ridiculous thing is that when the over-issuance mechanism stopped, the liquidity premium made the oversold LUNA rebound hundreds or thousands of times from the bottom, roughly from 0.00000X to 0.000X. Although it is still a drop of tens of thousands of times compared to the high point of hundreds of dollars, it still can't stop the few people who are lucky enough to buy at the low point from shouting orders everywhere.

Who are these people? Of course, they are people who have hoarded a group of chips at almost zero cost. Of course, it is also possible that there are people who are stuck and are anxious to get out of the trap and are shouting.

The purpose is very simple, which is to trick more people into getting on board and letting them take over or get out of the predicament.

How can the tens of billions of dollars of locked-in stocks be untied just like that? How many buyers would have to rush in to do charity to buy up the price?

More importantly, the Terra Luna chain has lost all credibility. It has proven that the project owner can centrally control the chain, shut it down if they want, and change the rules if they want. How can you, a small leek, dare to bet that such a bold and ruthless project owner will not change the rules again?

Others are the butchers and I am the meat.

You didn't take advantage of the opportunity that Dabing gave you to be a human being, and instead insisted on becoming a fish on the chopping board of the Korean founder. Even gods can't save you.

I have to say that the leeks are too fond of gambling with their lives.

People who earn a few thousand yuan a month dare to borrow short-term funds or even cash out their credit cards to speculate in cryptocurrencies.

There is almost no way that short-term loans and long-term investments will survive.

If 100,000 people die, there might be one survivor who wins the bet and becomes rich. Then the screenshots of this lucky person who got rich will be circulated all over the Internet.

What is the content of the screenshot? You can guess it without even looking at it. It is nothing more than a screenshot of someone cursing a few words in a WeChat group to give themselves courage before going all-in, as well as the amount of profit they made when they suddenly became rich, and so on.

Do you know what survivor bias means?

After all the bombing by planes and artillery on the battlefield, how many survivors can there be?

Most people have no idea of ​​the power of probability.

Too many people think they will be the survivor.

But the truth is always cruel. The ending of most people flying into the fire only proves an irrefutable truth: I am cannon fodder.

After all, financial markets are a numbers game.

If a lucky person earns 10,000 times, he must have earned the money of cannon fodder. If there are 10,000 cannon fodders, and each of them loses 1 times the money, he can become the one who earns 10,000 times.

Even if the probability of the entire gamble is completely even, the probability of you rushing in and becoming a lucky person is less than one in ten thousand, while the probability of becoming cannon fodder is 99.99%.

What's more, this cryptocurrency market is much less fair than a casino.

The secret dealers who manipulate the market, the highly skilled hackers, the exchanges that spy on your orders, the project parties that secretly modify the rules, which one of them is not a big shot riding on your neck?

The probability of you becoming cannon fodder is only ten thousand times greater than the 99.99% in a fair gamble, 99.999999%, so it is infinitely close to 100%.

No matter how bright tomorrow's sun is, the most important thing is that you can live to tomorrow.

In this cryptocurrency market that is as dangerous as a primitive jungle, there is only one way to ensure that you will survive until tomorrow: hoard bitcoins with your spare money.

Cherish life and stay away from cryptocurrency speculation.

Stay away from local dogs and don’t be a gambler.

You must know that sadness is always inevitable / in every moment of waking up from a dream / there are some things you don’t need to ask now / there are some coins you never have to wait for