The market continues to grind, waiting for direction

The S&P 500 rose 6.6% this week, the largest weekly gain since November 2020. With the rise of U.S. stocks, Bitcoin did not move in tandem. Now it feels like it is falling but not rising. Let's see next week. If it can be decoupled and move independently, it will be good. The only thing to worry about is that it will only fall but not rise, and funds will flee on a large scale. At present, all crypto investors who should surrender have surrendered, and the rest are long-term holders who are unshakable. No matter how panicked they are, the goods in their hands should also lie flat. The current K-line is a bit like the trend of the second wave of 28,800 in July 2021, which kept fluctuating downward. Finally, when the panic reached its extreme, the bulls rose up and started a wave of big gains. The only thing now is to wait for the bulls to blow the horn of attack, which is expected to take some time.

The U.S. SEC rejected One River’s Bitcoin spot ETF proposal. Before regulation is implemented, it is estimated that the spot ETF will not be approved. Whether this can be implemented this year will ultimately depend on the regulatory situation.

The head of the financial policy department of the Russian Ministry of Finance said that the idea of ​​using cryptocurrencies for international settlements is being actively discussed, and this matter has been added to the updated version of the draft law. If such a draft in Russia can be passed, it will be a huge boost to the cryptocurrency circle. The current bullish consensus needs a fuse. If this Russian bill can be passed, it may become the leader of the bullish outbreak.

The CEO of Gafisa, a Brazilian real estate developer, said that Bitcoin is the currency with the highest support rate in history. Previously, the real estate developer accepted Bitcoin payments. As a currency with global consensus, Bitcoin must have the highest support rate in history, and this consensus is still expanding rapidly. This is the beginning of a great revolution. Bitcoin will also be like what MicroStrategy CEO said yesterday. I believe that one day Bitcoin will be worth millions of dollars per coin.

Explosive Head said that FTX will spend billions of dollars on mergers and acquisitions, acquiring shares of companies that can continue to empower the company. This acquisition will make FTX a bigger and more successful company. Perhaps a certain acquisition will allow FTT to gain greater application and is worthy of long-term layout.

Duncan Simmons, a veteran Wall Streeter, has created a crypto hedge fund that will start fundraising next week. These traditional bigwigs have begun to enter the crypto market one by one. They have super financial weapons and financial technology products. Their entry will increase the difficulty of trading in the cryptocurrency circle, especially for some short-term investors. Previously, a British crypto hedge fund only lost 0.6% in this round of plunge. They used various financial derivatives to hedge and arbitrage, reducing losses to an extremely low level. For ordinary investors, losses will be multiplied, which is caused by wealth transfer in the zero-sum game.

After rejecting the cryptocurrency taxation bill, Portugal introduced a new cryptocurrency asset taxation and supervision bill. This is quite interesting. It seems that government officials still hope to promote cryptocurrency taxation, which is beneficial to the development of national innovation. Let's continue to wait for him to embrace it.

Panic 13, still extremely panic.

Coin News:

Bitcoin: Now it is a downward trend of two steps back and one step forward. Although the decline is not large, it makes people despair. Once there is a bullish consensus on this trend one day, and the daily line has one yang line crossing n yin lines, it will most likely start a sustained upward trend. Let's wait for that day.

ETH: The number of loss-making addresses hit a two-year high, and the trading volume dropped 80% from last year. In other words, no one is willing to participate at this position. When the trading volume drops 10 times (90%) from the peak, it basically hits the bottom, which is about the same as now. In the short term, it is still weak.

DOT: Osprey Funds, a US crypto asset management company, launched the first public Polkadot ecosystem fund, which can help people use DOT more safely and conveniently. It is a small positive and there is a chance for an independent small rebound.

BNB: Recently, Binance has obtained cryptocurrency service provider licenses in many countries, such as Italy, France, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, etc. Judging from the trend of BNB, it is also significantly stronger than its competing public chain ETH. With the continuous repurchase by the exchange, it still has long-term value in the future and is worth holding.

DOGE: Musk once again called for orders, saying that Tesla peripheral products can be paid with DOGE, and SpaceX peripheral products will soon also be able to use DOGE to pay. The trend is still relatively weak, and there are still many locked-in shares. It is reported that more than half of the millionaires who invested in Dogecoin have fallen back into poverty. I don’t know whether these people who believe in Musk can regain the light in the future. The madman believes that it is extremely difficult for Dogecoin to return to its peak.

GMT: Although the mainland users have been cleared out, the shoe casting volume still remains high, and the number of active users has reached a record high. The large number of active users is mainly due to the withdrawal of some domestic zombie users. The short-term rebound has ended. Don't chase the rise anymore. The market outlook is still dominated by a decline.

The market continues to grind. If there is a rapid rise at a small level, do not chase the rise and be sure to wait for confirmation of the bottom at a large level.