The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in June has risen to 96.8%. Compared with the last time, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points has decreased. This may be due to the monkeypox epidemic, or it may be due to the continued decline of US stocks, but the high inflation rate has not effectively declined. Therefore, as long as inflation does not fall, the Fed will discuss the issue of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in every interest rate decision, and interest rates will rise sharply. This is a signal of continued tightening. Let's see whether the Fed's balance sheet reduction plan in June is in line with expectations. As long as it is within expectations, every negative impact is a positive expectation. The Korean Crypto Asset Committee will be launched as early as June. The committee will mainly regulate cryptocurrency industry policies and establish basic laws. South Korea has established an innovative department to begin law enforcement. This move will accelerate the country's crypto industry regulation. After the supervision of various countries is formed in the future, global unified crypto regulation may come quickly. The Australian Consumer Team called for the regulation of cryptocurrencies. After seeing more and more crypto scams, investors from various countries have become a little uneasy. Both the government and non-governmental organizations hope to effectively regulate the crypto market to avoid money laundering and fraud crimes. Crypto regulation has become one of the top priorities for all countries at the moment. Brazilian regulators will impose personal income tax on cryptocurrency investors, and transactions exceeding $7,200 will be subject to tax. This is also not conducive to short-term speculation, but it is the only way to increase the amount of cryptocurrencies after compliance. Argentina has become one of the crypto-friendly countries because of the hyperinflation of its domestic currency, which has prompted people to embrace Bitcoin and stablecoins. More Argentines use cryptocurrencies to store value in US dollars to avoid the continuous depreciation of the country's currency against the US dollar, especially under Argentina's strict foreign exchange controls. This method will be cheaper. This is why the United States wants to embrace the crypto market, because it just allows them to easily harvest those inflationary countries with depreciating currencies. After all, the US dollar is still the world's number one. Australia has launched the first ETF backed by physical Ethereum. It is not a derivative ETF, but one that actually uses ETH tokens for settlement. This has paved the way for traditional Australian institutions to invest in Ethereum, which is a small positive. The total locked value of Defi has dropped by 40% from its peak, mainly due to the plunge of Ethereum and the collapse of LUNA. Currently, the top locked values are still UDO, MKR and AAVE. Except for UDO (which will be greatly reduced after ETH2.0), the other two are lending protocols, which shows that lending protocols are still the least risky and most stable protocols in Defi, and the future is worth looking forward to. FTX's trading volume surpassed Coinbase for the first time. This is just like Binance back then, where the latecomer surpassed the previous one. The difference is that FTX surpassed the previous one by relying on compliance, while Binance won the championship by an unconventional way. In comparison, FTX seems to have greater potential. Last week, crypto asset products saw a net inflow of $87 million, of which ALGO saw a record inflow of $20 million, indicating that institutions are still optimistic about the future of this token. At the same time, Bitcoin still accounts for the majority and is in a position where institutions can make a mindless investment. Panic 16, not much rise, extreme panic, will go up with the rebound. Coin News: Bitcoin: The probability of reaching above 32,000 in one go is not high. This is mainly due to the general rise in the market, not the blood-sucking market of Bitcoin, so the probability of it being sustained is low. Kuangren predicts that after the rebound, there will be some fluctuations. It may further decline in the first half of June, and there will be a strong rebound in the second half of the month, so the opportunity to get on board will be in the first half of the month. Be patient and wait for another opportunity to bottom out. ETH: Due to the continuous selling pressure from Three Arrows Capital, Ethereum has been weak recently. Overall, it continues to be linked to Bitcoin, so there is no big problem. SHIB: The founder deleted all tweets and blog posts. If this is not done by hackers, it is likely to be bad news. Either the project will be handed over to the team to play the decentralization routine, or it will be held hostage by politics. It is better to leave first while there is profit in the short term. LUNA: Founder D. Kwon said that he will continue to explore the new public mystery. This pit is about to make a comeback. Don’t get on the road again. Short-term speculation is over. Today’s speculation is mainly due to the expectation of Binance’s listing. WAVES: A revival plan was launched, 45% of WAVES tokens were pledged to the Suanwen platform to invest in the USDN3 pool and improve demand. The Defi locked volume increased by 25% in the past 24 hours. If this continues, there is still a certain rebound expectation, after all, the decline was too large. There is no rush to chase high prices in the short term, and long-term investors can stay put. |
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