After crypto lending service Celsius announced it was suspending withdrawals amid “extreme market conditions,” traders worried about a new systemic threat to the crypto market and panic selling ensued, sending Bitcoin and Ethereum prices to 18-month lows. Bitpush terminal data shows that as of press time, the transaction price of ETH is $1,249, a 24-hour drop of more than 18%. On-chain data shows that an anonymous whale sold about 93,000 ETH in six hours, and veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that the price of ETH may fall to $667 in the next few weeks. Whales Selling Around 11:00 AM Beijing time on June 13, an anonymous whale sold 65,104.18 ETH for a variety of "stablecoins", including USDC, Tether (USDT) and Dai (DAI). Data from the oasis website showed that whales sold their ETH holdings to repay nearly $73 million worth of debt to the DeFi lending platform Oasis.app. During the sell-off, the liquidation price of ETH fell from $1,200 to $875. Five hours after the first sell-off, the whale continued its selling spree — again selling nearly 28,000 ETH — to pay off another $32 million in debt. Thus, the whale dumped approximately 93,000 ETH in just six hours. Based on the ETH/USD price on June 13, this is worth approximately $112 million. ETH staking issues After Ethereum completes the merger later this year, a large amount of ETH currently staked on the beacon chain will flow into the market, which may lead to a more severe price crash. However, these assets will be released in stages over the next few months after the merger, which may give the market value some buffer space. Traders are concerned about staking protocols such as Lido, which accounts for nearly a third of the total staking volume. According to industry experts, this centralization could lead to attacks on the network. Another issue is the "decoupling" of pledged assets. When users stake ETH on Lido, they receive an equal amount of stETH in return, which is used as collateral on other DeFi platforms. Bitpush terminal data shows that the major sell-off has caused the price of stETH:ETH to "decouple", and the current trading price ($1,163) is 4.4% lower than Ethereum. Market analyst Alex Krüger observed that when ETH fell to around $1,423, it was equivalent to the peak of the 2018 cycle, but Ethereum continued to fall. Analysts believe that technical indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) are currently deeply oversold for ETH, and while a small rebound may occur, the bear market will only deepen, which means that Ethereum and all cryptocurrencies will face more downside risks for some time. Senior analyst: Ethereum price drops to $667 Senior analysts said Ethereum could fall to $667 in the coming weeks. Peter Brandt , CEO of research and trading firm Factor and a senior trader, said on social media that ETH has reached its first downside target. Peter Brandt cited the Descending Triangle indicator, which is a chart pattern that forms when the uppermost line slopes downward and to the right. Technical analysis interprets this formation as bearish, meaning that the market is falling. Brandt said that ETH has reached the first downside target of the triangle at $1,268 with the 20% price drop on June 13. He expects the decline to continue, with ETH falling nearly another 50% to $667. Another analyst, Shaurya Malwa, pointed out that after the U.S. inflation index hit a 40-year high in May, market concerns that the Federal Reserve may have to accelerate interest rate hikes are growing. As the central bank pushes to withdraw excess liquidity from financial markets, cryptocurrencies, like traditional markets, will face severe downward price pressure. |
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