The oversold rebound is not over yet, both for US stocks and Bitcoin

The minutes of the Fed's overnight meeting showed that the interest rate will be raised by 50 basis points or 75 basis points in July. This expectation is significantly more relaxed than the previous 75 basis point rate hike. Powell said that in order to ensure that inflation falls, some economic impacts may occur. Deutsche Bank also predicted that the United States will enter a technical recession in the second quarter. Like the IMF president, it believes that it will fall into a full recession in 2023. In any case, for the United States, monetary tightening will cause a phased economic recession, which should be an inevitable event. However, in the short term, whether the interest rate will be raised by 50 basis points or 75 basis points, we still have to wait for the inflation data next week to know. The signal released by the Fed is relatively dovish, causing the US dollar index to fall back, and the US stock market has been somewhat relieved, which also gives the currency circle an opportunity to continue to rebound from oversold.

In addition, in the UK, government officials resigned en masse, forcing Prime Minister Johnson to abdicate. The latest news shows that Johnson has agreed to resign, but hopes to stay in office until this fall, waiting for the election of a successor. On the surface, this is due to some dishonesty on the part of Johnson during the election, but the underlying reason is still inflation and economic recession. When the market is not enough to stabilize the economy and people's hearts, problems often arise in the regime. These are the early reactions to a comprehensive recession. The 20s of the 21st century are destined to be extraordinary times, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Most countries will face a reshuffle. Do not over-invest in risky assets, and do not over-bet on a country's legal currency. Hedging asset allocation will be the only choice in this era.

BlockFi said it has confirmed 100% cash withdrawals to users. Currently, 10% of the funds are held as collateral, 50% are held in the form of short-term positions, and the rest are supported by a third party, which is most likely FTXUS, which previously provided revolving credit assistance and the right to purchase stocks. The fall of this big bomb of BlockFi will make the market feel much safer.

Genesis CEO said that at the end of June, Three Arrows Capital failed to meet margin requirements and liquidated its collateral, which was mainly ETH. It is not difficult to explain why ETH showed obvious weakness at the end of June. However, these mines are being resolved one by one, those that are bankrupt are bankrupt, those that are liquidated are liquidated, and those that are revived are revived. The market will naturally get better step by step in the future.

Bloomberg analysts compared the crypto market to the Internet bubble in 2000, believing that the bubble in the first half of the year had burst and the returns in the second half of the year would significantly outweigh the risks. I strongly agree with this view, and the current reward-risk ratio is extremely good.

Belgian regulators regard cryptocurrencies as a type of security. When the United States had not yet clearly defined and regulated the crypto market, Belgium took the lead in making a decision, providing a trial and example for more countries. Ultimately, the probability of cryptocurrencies becoming securities is indeed greater than their commodity attributes. After all, this volatility and valuation method are more inclined to make them securities.

With the impact of Russian sanctions, Russia's demand for hardware wallets has increased several times. In troubled times, people will pay more attention to the privatization of assets rather than placing them in seemingly reliable financial institutions. In the future, with economic recession or more extreme wars, more and more people will learn to self-custody their assets, and the biggest beneficiaries will still be Bitcoin and stablecoins.

XAnge raised 220 million euros for its fund to invest in areas such as Defi and WEB3, which is another small increase in European institutions.

FTX CEO said that since the price of Bitcoin has shown that it has bottomed out, the worst period is over, and if necessary, more than 2 billion US dollars can be used to support the industry. It doesn't sound like a bailout at all, but waiting to buy at any time. This 2 billion US dollars is 100,000 Bitcoins.

25 crypto exchanges have disappeared in the past 30 days. This is the power of the market. Many exchanges misappropriated user funds for financial management, which eventually led to bad debts or liquidity crises, resulting in the inability to fully withdraw funds for users, and eventually chose to run away. It is recommended that you still play in large exchanges. Since they are all speculating in cryptocurrencies, there is no need to take the risk of losing your principal.

This week, three senior executives from JPMorgan Chase resigned to join the crypto industry. These bigwigs of traditional finance are not fools. They must have seen huge opportunities in the future when they got involved. The crypto industry can not only absorb Internet talents, but also traditional financial talents. People with annual salaries of millions of dollars leave their families and come to the crypto industry. They must be optimistic about the future development of this blue ocean.

The Wall Street Journal article criticized the US SEC for double standards in its application for Bitcoin spot ETFs, and believed that Chairman Gensler was a legend in resisting Bitcoin spot ETFs. The voices for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs are getting louder and louder. In the future, under the continuous pressure, the chairman of the US SEC will consider the timetable for approval, and this good news will come sooner or later.

Panic 18, extreme panic.

Coin News:

Bitcoin: The stock of exchange tokens hit a three-year low, and the selling pressure is minimal. The mining difficulty was lowered by 1.41% again, indicating that some miners have surrendered. This is the second consecutive decline this year, and the last time was in March. There is still room for rebound in the US stock market at night, and Bitcoin is expected to move in tandem and challenge the pressure level of 22,000 again in the short term.

Ethereum: The Sepolia test network has completed the merger. The next step is the official 2.0 schedule. Ethereum’s certainty is getting higher and higher. The inclination of Curve’s Steth pool has also eased. The subsequent rebound strength will also outperform Bitcoin. It is mainly held.

DOGE: Musk’s tunnel company supports Dogecoin payments. The recent trend is good and there is an expectation of continued rebound. The token supported by the richest man is not in a high position and there should be another wave of upward trend in the future.

SHIB: Plans to launch a series of products such as the second-layer network, stablecoins, and card games to supplement the integrity of its ecosystem. In a downturn, projects that can continue to build will have a better chance of coming out in the future. On-chain data shows that a giant whale bought 20 trillion SHIBs, worth about $210 million, which is the largest transaction in shib's history. There are still opportunities for this coin to rise in the future, after all, the fundamentals and funds have improved, and the pressure level is 0.000016.

SAND: Signed a Metaverse cooperation agreement with South Korean comprehensive channel ChannelA, and Meta Hollyhood joined the SAND ecosystem, providing support for SAND's future. The recent trend is not bad, and there is a chance that the market will continue to strengthen in the short term.

The oversold rebound is not over yet, both for U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.