14 market bottom signals: how far are we from the bottom?

A month ago, I asked a bunch of crypto OGs how to identify market bottoms. I came up with 14 bottom signals - only 4 of them were confirmed at the time, so let's see where we are now.

Tl;DR: 10/14 bottom signals have been confirmed :

1. Large fund bankruptcy: confirmed (not before)

Yes, it’s bad. The largest cryptocurrency hedge fund ever, 3AC, went bankrupt, and it managed to create a bunch of bad chain reactions.

2. Extremely boring: confirmed (not before)

I posted a survey on Twitter yesterday with four options: Panic, Anger, Depression, Hope .

In the end, Hope won, but among the non-existent options, there was only one consensus: boring

3. Crossing the 200-week moving average: doubtful (never before)

This one is a bit tricky because we have broken below the 200-week SMA but have not closed on the weekly chart yet.

Fun fact: the last time the total cryptocurrency market capitalization was below the 200-week SMA was in March 2020.

4. Loss of retail investor interest: confirmed (and has been seen before)

Yes, retail interest has died down, to a large extent.

If you look at exchange volumes, sentiment indicators or reports from the big banks, it seems that most retail trading data has fallen.

5. Quiet Crypto Social Media: Proven (and not before)

This has definitely been felt over the past few weeks, and even though there is still quite a bit of activity, there has been a significant drop off.

Growth of followers over time;

Google search trends for "Crypto Twitter."

6. The disappearance of Web2 cryptocurrency integration: not yet confirmed

Some notable combinations have come to stay and are moving forward:

Twitter PFPs;

FB Metaverse;

Instagram NFTs;

Stripe cryptocurrency payments.

7. The monthly RSI index has been oversold for several consecutive months: not yet confirmed

Yeah, not there yet. We need to see a few more months of decline stagnation or a big black candlestick down to get to those price points.

8. Silence: Doubt

I’m pretty sure we’re not there yet, social media, Youtube/podcast views and transaction volume will tell the story.

9. Long funds sold their unlocked projects: Confirmed (previously)

This issue was already a "validation" as most VCs that invested in LUNA took a hit and started selling, but recently it has gotten even worse.

10. No one attended the meeting: Not yet confirmed

There is very little of that happening right now. Conferences are still going strong, and NFT NYC is definitely an event worth attending. With ETHCC coming up, we’ll see if there’s still a vibrant conference community.

11. Talking about blockchain enterprises: Proven (not before)

This is a hard question to gauge, but I’ve been hearing more about enterprise blockchain lately, perhaps with the Maker DAO/Lummis bill? Maybe this is no longer about enterprise blockchain, but about RWAs.

12. Anger turns to indifference: confirmed (not before)

Again, it’s hard to measure, but I think the sentiment has shifted. The biggest bystanders have left, and crypto Twitter is honestly kind of interesting again. College dropouts are returning to school, and the ecosystem is healing naturally.

13. Massive industry layoffs: confirmed (not before)

The following companies are laying off employees:

Coinbase : laid off 1,100 employees;

Crypto.com : laid off 250 employees;

BlockFi : laid off 200 employees;

Bitpanda : 300 layoffs;

Even Time magazine is reporting on crypto layoffs.

14. Fear/panic: confirmed (previously)

Alts falling 95%, Luna death spiral, centralized lenders collapsing, $2 trillion in wealth wiped out? Yes, it happened before and it’s happening now.

So, what else can we be attacked by now?

the disappearance of Web2 bonding;

Monthly RSI is oversold;

silence;

No one attended the conference activities.