The recovery is still going on, and the market will not be too bad this week

The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 100 basis points in July is only 29.1%, and the remaining probability is a 75 basis point increase. This shows that with a series of speeches by Fed officials, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points again at the end of the month is already relatively high. This also makes the price of the currency circle return to the position before the release of the CPI data on July 13, but this time the bulls are obviously more stable and have a better basis for rising, because for the macro market, the darkest moment has gradually dissipated, we will usher in a healthy trend of gradually declining CPI, the tightening will also weaken accordingly, and the market will begin to gradually recover.

The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said that DeFi may become an important technology for innovation in the financial field in the future. He believes that DeFi will not disappear soon, but it should be better regulated to address the risks brought by decentralized finance. Recently, more and more institutions and professionals are optimistic about DeFi, and the certainty of DeFi's future is gradually increasing. With the continuous breakthrough and rise of ETH, the most direct benefiting application is the DeFi application on the ETH chain, because their locked-up volume will rise with Ethereum. The relatively leading ones are CVX, CRV, AAVE, etc.

As ETH2.0 approaches, ETH itself and various ETH2.0 beneficiary sectors are also moving, while competing L1 tokens are showing a certain degree of weakness (such as BNB, SOL, etc.). The beneficiaries are mainly reflected in direct substitutes ETC and L2 tracks (such as 0P, MATIC, etc.). The DeFi applications behind these benefiting L2 tracks will also become one of the concepts that capital will soon pursue. For example, 0P's Velo or SNX, MATIC's Quick, etc., are all projects worthy of attention after the rise of L2.

In addition, the NFT market has recently shown a significant recovery. June was also the darkest month, with a monthly transaction volume of only US$1.04 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 74%. Yesterday, the leading project CryptoPunk's 24-hour transaction volume reached 5,000 ETH, an increase of 76.15%, ranking first in the market. BAYC's 24-hour transaction volume increased by more than 300%, and Otherdeed, which just released its experience and roadmap yesterday, also increased its 24-hour transaction volume by more than 300%. Its parent company's token APE has received significant attention. Previously, the madman reminded everyone that all prices below US$5 are layout opportunities.

CME Bitcoin futures open interest rose to 13,505, with institutional long-short ratio at 1:

1.3, large investors' long-short ratio 7.1: 1, retail investors' long-short ratio 1.4: lo The overall change is not big. With the rebound, we can see that retail investors' short positions have gradually gained the upper hand, which will also become a catalyst for further rebound in the market in the future.

The report shows that the United States and Germany dominate the latest global crypto countries, mainly due to advanced regulatory policies and mainstream institutional investment in Bitcoin. The German government allows the savings industry to invest in cryptocurrencies and implements a zero-tax policy on crypto capital gains held for more than one year. The United States develops consumer protection and financial supervision and provides a clear framework for crypto participation. These leading crypto countries will help the crypto market to further develop successfully in the future. Now that the market has been corrected, it gives everyone the opportunity to choose and recognize again. Everyone's decision-making direction is bound to affect the future distribution of wealth.

Panic 20, continue to panic.

Coin News:

Bitcoin: 38,262 bitcoins have flowed out of exchanges in the past 30 days. The pattern of hoarding bitcoins remains unchanged. The bitcoin premium rate of Coinbase has gradually recovered, indicating that institutions have entered a hoarding state again. Today, the familiar Coinbase large-scale withdrawal has appeared again.

(6663 pieces), there is still room for an overall rebound, but 23,000 is still a strong pressure. As ETH takes the lead in breaking through, I expect Bitcoin to break through this pressure. After 23,000, the next strong pressure zone will be 25,000.

ETH: 131 new Ethereum whale addresses have been added since May. Ethereum’s recent strength is obvious to all. It is expected to continue to rebound at an accelerated pace, as there is not much pressure near 1500, and levels above 1600 are beckoning to everyone.

XRP: The former CTO sold the last 5 million XRP in his pocket, ending the XRP sell-off, which took a total of 8 years. Without the selling pressure, Ripple's weak label will gradually be removed, and we need to observe it from a new perspective.

MKR: The community uses Societe Generale OFH as collateral for lending. This is a huge leap forward in cooperation with traditional enterprises, which gives it a certain amount of room for imagination. It is recommended to continue holding.

ENS: Coinbase and ENS have reached a cooperation to provide users with WEB3 usernames managed by Coinbase. This has set a precedent for other exchanges, opened up space for ENS's subsequent cooperation with major exchanges, and opened a new door for it in the WEB3 world. For example, if your name is Zhang San, you can apply for a zhangsan.eth. In the future, when people transfer coins to you, you can directly enter zhangsan.eth and you will receive it. However, this address can be your wallet address in Coinbase, eliminating the need for a long string of numbers + letters.

The recovery is still ongoing and the market will not be too bad this week.