When will the next Bitcoin bull run come?

The price of Bitcoin broke out in 2021, surpassing $60,000 in April and hitting an all-time high of nearly $70,000 in November. However, since that peak, the asset has reversed its trajectory, losing more than 50% of its value.

Driven by adverse macroeconomic conditions and the global financial crisis, BTC fell below $18,000 in June. In fact, the second quarter of 2022 was the worst quarter in about a decade. All of these negative events, coupled with waning investor interest, have led many experts in the field to believe that a crypto winter will prevail.

So when will the next bull run for Bitcoin come? In a recent interview, Mark Yusko, head of Morgan Creek Capital Management, claimed that this period of price declines and uncertainty is over. In his opinion, spring is coming, and with it, a recovery in Bitcoin prices: I think spring is already here. If you look at the last two cycles, we had the same number of days in that cycle where spring started and winter ended. Spring can last for several months. We don't have to have a bull run immediately.

Specifically, Yusko predicts that a transition to crypto summer will occur by 2024, when the next BTC halving will occur: And then when we get to the summer, that’s when we’re going to make the next move, and guess is that’s going to come in anticipation of the next halving in 2024.

The halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years and reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created by cutting the block reward in half. Miners currently receive 6.25 BTC per block, a figure that will drop to 3.125 BTC by 2024. The event is considered highly bullish because it reduces the rate at which new coins are produced. At the same time, if demand remains the same or increases, basic economic principles suggest that the value of the asset should also rise.

In addition, Bitcoin Magazine stated on social media that Bloomberg said that we may be only two years away from the next big explosion in Bitcoin prices.

The forecast for 2024 is related to the macro environment. Currently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that they will not stop raising interest rates until there is "convincing evidence" that inflation is falling. This is the highest interest rate hike in 28 years as the US inflation rate jumps to a four-year high. As the Fed plans to absorb market liquidity, funds may flow into more stable assets such as bonds.

According to market analyst @tedtalksmacro, things may start to change as policymakers may begin cutting interest rates in 2024. In his recent article, the analyst wrote: "2024, the next big year for cryptocurrencies."

Updated forecast materials from the Federal Reserve show that policymakers expect to begin cutting interest rates in 2024, which coincides with the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

Earlier, FTX.US President Brett Harrison tweeted that the crypto market will recover at a faster pace, and listed three factors that will stimulate the market rebound: 1. U.S. regulators provide clear supervision; 2. A more robust crypto options/futures market; 3. The United States approves spot crypto ETFs.

Brett Harrison pointed out that regulatory clarity for U.S. cryptocurrency trading platforms and other digital asset providers will give institutional investors the confidence to make long-term bets on crypto assets; a more robust crypto futures and options market will also help bring in institutional capital, curb volatility by providing effective hedging of capital, and make it easier for companies to gain exposure to crypto assets; and the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could bring about another bull market, although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not yet approved such products.

Yves Lamoureux, president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co, noted that the next turning point in Bitcoin’s price will be the halving event scheduled for 2024. According to Lamoureux, as the supply of Bitcoin decreases, the asset will reflect its historical price trend of appreciation. Moreover, the rally will continue until 2025.