Bitcoin: Bitcoin bulls have been compressed to the extreme

Time flies so fast, a week has gone by in the blink of an eye. This week, apart from the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point interest rate hike in line with expectations, there was almost no decent news, and the market was relatively quiet and sluggish. The madman himself wanted to delay the update for another week, but considering that he had already promised everyone "see you next week", he put aside some unfinished matters and said hello to everyone first. From now on, the update time will be advanced from 18:00 in the evening to 14:00-15:00. If there is something urgent and I cannot update on time, I will inform you on Weibo or Twitter. I hope you can continue to support me. Let's get to the point of today.

The US dollar index continued to hit a 20-year high of 113. The recent wave of rise has a certain acceleration trend and has seriously deviated from the moving average. Combined with the gap in interest rate hikes in October, it is likely to start a correction trend. If the US dollar index can correct as expected, it will boost the US stock market and the crypto market. Therefore, we don’t need to be too pessimistic at the beginning of the fourth quarter. As I said, the worst time has passed. Even if there is another interest rate hike in November and December, it will only be 50 basis points each. The US dollar cannot continue to rise like this. When all expectations are fulfilled, the market negatives will turn into positives. We should at least be optimistic about the recovery in October.

Let's talk about the on-chain data of Bitcoin. The supply of Bitcoin that has not been active for more than 10 years has hit a record high, indicating that more and more Bitcoins are dormant, and 65% of Bitcoins have not moved at all in the past year, which means that the circulation is still extremely low. At the same time, the ahr999 index has been in the bottom-fishing range for 5 weeks, indicating that the bottom of Bitcoin is gradually forming; the addresses holding 0.1 and 1 Bitcoin continue to hit record highs, and the number of whales holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins has reached a 6-month low. From the overall data, smart money is still not optimistic about the continued rise in the future, which is related to the overall macro environment. Therefore, even if there is a good rebound in the fourth quarter, there is a high probability that there will be a second chance to bottom out. It is a staged rebound opportunity rather than a long-term starting point. This bottom still needs more time to wear out, so we should wait patiently.

In addition, the circulation of USDC also decreased by US$500 million last week, indicating that institutions are still mainly fleeing, which also supports the above view that the short-term rebound is not a reversal. In order to regain the synergy, the currency needs to lose trust or the printing press needs to be restarted.

The current daily active volume of the 9 major public chains is only over 2 million addresses. If we count the users, it should be difficult to reach even 2 million. BNB ranks first, followed by

The so-called decentralization or WEB3 of SOL, ETH, and MATICo is still a false proposition in the current sluggish market. Let's hope that someone will make a WEB3 application that will explode and go beyond the circle. From a public perspective, the four most valuable public chains are the above four.

The Moscow Exchange has drafted a bill on digital financial assets and securities trading. It seems that Russia has planned to make crypto assets compliant for trading in the securities market. More and more developed countries and major countries have chosen to regulate and embrace it, and full adoption in the future is getting closer.

Panic 24, still in extreme panic.

Coin News:

Bitcoin: At present, Bitcoin bulls have been compressed to the extreme, and will soon usher in a wave of increases. This trend is a bit like the wave from May to July 2021. After falling to the bottom, the market has risen sharply. However, the current macro environment does not support a direct reversal, so a rebound to 28,000-30,000 is still worth looking forward to.

ETH: The recent pullback is quite sharp, mainly due to the sharp drop in activity on the chain. When the market recovers and the chain resumes activity, Ethereum will rise back to where it fell, so just buy on dips.

DOGE: In the past week, six whales bought 620 million DOGE. The shit combination began to attract the attention of some funds at this position, but they all belong to left-side positions. There is no need to rush to follow the order unless you also want to hold it for the long term.

XTZ: The 11th mainnet upgrade was activated on Friday, which is expected to boost the short-term coin price. You can pay attention to it.

ADA: The founder said that many projects will use the new features after the upgrade. This founder is probably a bit embarrassed. The market doesn’t buy it after boasting for so long. The most fundamental reason is that the ecosystem is too small. Since the upgrade benefits have not been pulled up, let’s give up and consider changing positions.

CHZ: This week has been pretty good. The expectations for the World Cup are clear, and there should be certain strong expectations in the future. However, the daily line diverged after this wave of new highs, so those who want to take profits in the short term should reduce their considerations by half.

There is nothing much to add. Let’s wait and see when the US stock market opens tomorrow. In the short term, an opportunity will be needed for a direction to be chosen.