Standard Chartered Bank Analyst: Bitcoin Could Reach $100,000 by 2024

Bitcoin continues to pull back. After losing the key position of $30,000, BitPush terminal data shows that as of press time, BTC is trading around $27,330, down 0.45% in 24 hours. Ethereum also fell, erasing weeks of gains after the Shanghai upgrade on April 12. In addition, the net outflow of funds from Bitcoin investment products last week reached $53.1 million, breaking the six-week streak of net inflows. However, Standard Chartered Bank analysts are optimistic about the medium- and long-term trend of Bitcoin, and believe that Bitcoin may reach $100,000 in 2024.

“We believe Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024 as we believe the much-discussed ‘crypto winter’ is finally over,” Geoff Kendrick, head of cryptocurrency and foreign exchange research at Standard Chartered Bank, said in a recent report.

The bank said the recent U.S. banking crisis had spurred a rally in bitcoin prices and reestablished its core use case — “as a decentralized, trustless and scarce digital asset.” Analysts also cited the end of the Federal Reserve ’s rate hikes, bitcoin’s next halving, and regulatory tailwinds.

Bitcoin investment products snap six-week streak of net inflows

Investors' enthusiasm for Bitcoin has dropped significantly recently. A weekly fund report from digital asset investment company CoinShares shows that the outflow of funds from Bitcoin investment products reached US$53.1 million last week, which was the first net outflow after six consecutive weeks of net inflows.

Digital asset investment products saw combined outflows of $30 million in the seven days to April 21, with CoinShares XBT, ProShares and 3iQ being the worst-hit providers. These providers all manage exchange-traded products pegged to cryptocurrencies, an indirect way for institutional investors to gain exposure to the crypto market without actually holding crypto tokens.

Institutions have shifted their investment focus to Ethereum, with Ethereum investment products receiving $17 million in inflows last week, far ahead of other major altcoins such as Solana , Cardano , XRP and Litecoin. The report also shows that the funds flowing into Ethereum funds came entirely from Europe, as Europe has just approved the landmark crypto market regulatory law MiCA.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, believes that profit-taking is largely to blame, with U.S. regulatory uncertainty casting a shadow over U.S. crypto companies and a crackdown by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) likely prompting investors to take a wait-and-see approach.

“Regionally, profit-taking came almost entirely from North America, where outflows totaled $54 million. Investors in Germany continued to be optimistic, with inflows totaling $29 million,” Butterfill wrote.

Bitcoin’s Journey to $100,000

Standard Chartered analysts noted that Circle ’s USDC depegging after disclosing $3.3 billion held at Silicon Valley Bank boosted Bitcoin’s narrative, writing: “The troubles facing stablecoins (competing digital assets) have also helped Bitcoin regain its reputation as ‘digital gold’.”

Benefiting from its status as a “safe haven,” the bank expects Bitcoin’s dominance to continue to rise, returning to the 50-60% range. Bitcoin dominance refers to its market capitalization relative to the market capitalization of other coins, and according to TradingView data, Bitcoin ’s dominance is currently around 47%.

According to Standard Chartered, as the Federal Reserve approaches the end of its rate hike cycle, overall conditions for risk assets should improve. Bitcoin has risen during periods of pullback in traditional risk assets, but its increasing correlation with the Nasdaq currently means that if the broader risk asset market warms up, Bitcoin will also benefit.

It is worth noting that Eric Robertsen, global head of research and strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, has predicted that the price of Bitcoin may fall to $5,000 in December and gold will once again become the number one safe haven.

The impact of Bitcoin halving on price

The next Bitcoin halving — when the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is cut in half — should also improve price results, as the rally that followed the previous halving did. The next halving is expected to occur around the end of March 2024, according to Dune data.

“This should add a cyclical tailwind to the structural positives that are already at play…Furthermore, regulatory developments should provide a tailwind for Bitcoin,” Kendrick wrote.

He believes that the EU Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which passed the European Parliament last week, “could have a constructive impact on investor interest and volatility” and that the U.S. and U.K. should follow suit.

Short-term market instability

Bitcoin is currently trading slightly above its 50-day moving average (DMA) – $27,300, and the next few days will be critical. Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Bitbank, said: “As profit-taking selling pressure and long liquidation pushed prices down this week, while the U.S. stock market lost direction, the market is struggling to find reasons to buy and support prices.”

Joe DiPasquale, CEO of BitBull Capital, analyzed in his tweet that the technical signals in the Bitcoin price chart still look "encouraging". DiPasquale said: "A healthy retest of the support area between $25,000 and $27,000 is a positive sign for continued rise. As long as Bitcoin manages to stay above $22,000, even in the worst case scenario, we can expect more upward trends."