Binance LaunchPad IPO revenue

Binance LaunchPad has received poor reviews recently, but the voice of “no matter how poor you are, you cannot be poor in education” still fully reflects the warmth and beauty that LaunchPad brings to the crypto community.

We have dug up the historical data of Launchpad from 2021 to the present, used data to speak, compared the history to evaluate the current level of Launchpad's returns, explored the reasons for its "boring" reputation, and calculated the return rate of long-term holding of BNB by benchmarking the ETH staking returns, and comprehensively analyzed the issue of "BNB's returns."

Indicator Explanation

First-day increase: The price increase on the first day after listing at UTC+0:00 compared to IDO

The biggest increase in history: the increase in the historical highest price compared to IDO

BNB-based first-day return rate: 1BNB new issue, the amount of BNB that can be obtained by selling tokens on the first day

The highest historical return rate of BNB: The amount of BNB that can be obtained by selling 1BNB at the highest price in history

Benefit Assessment

Taking the median of all projects, the first-day increase was 12.6 times, the historical maximum increase was 25.7 times, the first-day return rate of BNB was 0.015, and the historical maximum return rate of BNB was 0.031.

The three tokens launched since HOOK have all been at an upper-middle level in all indicators. The median first-day increase of 24.4 times is 1.9 times the historical median, and the historical maximum increase is 1.4 times the historical median. The first-day return rate of BNB is 1.5 times, and the historical maximum return rate of BNB is 1.3 times. In other words, these projects in the bear market are actually more profitable than most projects in the bull market.

The current policy is also relatively friendly to arbitrage users. Compared with the previous uneven returns, the BNB-based return rates of the last three projects are all around 2%. If the terms of Launchpad remain similar to these in the future, then users who buy spot short contracts to issue new shares, as well as users who use Venus to borrow BNB to issue new shares, will basically have a relatively stable expectation.

Why do I feel so tasteless?

The question is, why does it always feel less powerful than before? The reason is probably because there is a lack of big explosion points. In 21/22, there are products such as SFP/GMT with a maximum return of hundreds of times. If you hold on to them, one is worth ten. The last round of SFP to GMT was about a year apart, and after another year of GMT, there has been no project that has achieved the same level of growth.

It is normal for a phenomenal project to give people a stronger impression than three mid-level projects. When you look at the picture below, your first reaction is probably to look for GMT. What does the so-called BNB-based historical maximum return rate of GMT, 0.46, mean? If you use 1BNB to buy new GMT, you can sell 0.46 BNB at the top, and SFP can even use 1 BNB to buy 1.56 BNB! No wonder everyone is so impressed. In comparison, the current maximum return of 0.0X is somewhat boring.

However, what is more interesting is that the first-day gains of SFP/GMT were relatively average, only 12 times, which is half of Hook/EDU. The three new projects have not been online for a long time. In the current bear market, ponzi and other models are unlikely to become popular, so there is no need to have too high expectations for the time being.

BNB long-term holding income

The annualized return of BNB LaunchPad can actually be compared with the ETH staking return. In the approximately two and a half years since 2021, if the tokens were sold on the first day, the total return on BNB would be 36%, or 14% annualized, which seems slightly higher than the return of ETH Staking in the same period.

However, BNB also has the income from Launchpool. If we add the income from mining, withdrawal and sale from Launchpool, the total return rate of BNB is 52%, and the annualized rate is 21%, which is almost more than twice the income of ETH Staking in the same period.

The total return of the project in the past year since the bear market was about 9.5%, and after the merger, the ETH Staking APR that benefited from MEV income was about 6%. In other words, in the bear market, the return rate of BNB IPO still maintained more than 50% of the income of ETH Staking.

If the bull market comes, ETH Staking income is expected to benefit from MEV income, while BNB Launchpad is expected to usher in a double-click in terms of quantity and growth. However, ETH's current pledge rate is low, and there is still 2-3 times of room for growth compared with other L1s. The income may be diluted due to more pledges. The amount of new issuance on Launchpad currently seems to be relatively stable at around 10M for both bull and bear markets. Coupled with the temptation of "the largest return in history", BNB is relatively more flexible.

Of course, both BNB and ETH are currently destroying deflation, and the destruction speed of BNB is significantly faster. However, the benefits brought by the destruction will be directly reflected in the currency price. The long-term trend of BNB/ETH in history is upward. Since 21 years, BNB/ETH has basically been in a state of sideways fluctuation, so it is more reasonable to directly compare the pledge income with the Staking income.

Summarize

Since the bear market, the combined return rate of the three Launchpad projects has been in the upper-middle range in history, with various indicators approximately 1.3-1.9 times the historical median. In addition, the current first-day return rate of BNB is stable at around 2%, which is suitable for arbitrage.

SFP/GMT, etc. have not appeared for a year. It is possible to achieve a phenomenal return of up to 1.5 BNB for 1 BNB new subscription. The relatively negative market feedback may come from this.

Compared with ETH Staking, the current annualized return of long-term holding of BNB is about 9.5%, which is 1.5 times that of ETH. In the past bull market, BNB's returns were about twice that of ETH, and it is expected to be more upwardly resilient in the future bull market.

However, we cannot just keep pressing the calculator. In the next bull market, the use case of ETH/BNB may be the key factor in determining returns. Currently, ETH L2 is developing well, and whether BNB Chain can continue to exert its strength is also a point that needs special attention.