Frequent fluctuations in the $25,000 range in "Bloody September" Bitcoin potential analysis

At the beginning of September, White Dew is approaching.

September does not seem to be kind to the cryptocurrency market as it has historically been the bloodiest month for Bitcoin bulls.

Last week, Grayscale "beat" the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the price of Bitcoin soared to a high of $28,184, but the rise was not firmly maintained and the joy was extremely short-lived. Just after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced the postponement of its decision on all seven spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, Bitcoin returned to the $25,000 range.

$30,000 (potential) or $23,000 (risk)?

Let’s look at the risks first.

On September 1, Bitcoin fell to a near two-week low of $25,307. This performance also raised questions about the fate of Bitcoin in September. After all, Bitcoin's returns in September have been negative in the past six years.

The on-chain data analyzed by cryptocurrency analyst Ali shows that due to the lack of strong support below the $25,400 mark, Bitcoin may face the risk of falling to around $23,340. Not only that, Ali also pointed out a key point: For the first time in history, Bitcoin withdrawals exceeded deposits for three consecutive months-what does this mean? Here are some assumptions:

1. Investors choose to hold their Bitcoin rather than trade or sell it;

2. Investors are moving Bitcoin to personal wallets for increased security, indicating a decline in trust in cryptocurrency exchanges;

3. Fewer and fewer investors are depositing Bitcoin, which may reduce market selling pressure;

4. Given recent regulatory changes in the United States, investors prefer to keep their assets off exchanges to avoid potential complications.

Now let’s look at the potential.

Compared with the "pessimistic" cryptocurrency market, IntoTheBlock data believes that the next milestone of Bitcoin price may be $30,000, because 6.2 million addresses have purchased more than 2.6 million BTC, which may push the price to $30,000.

On-chain analysis company Santiment also gave another key factor that may determine the next trend of Bitcoin: whales. According to Santiment, the behavior of whales is likely to determine the recent price trend of Bitcoin, and data shows that Bitcoin whales are indeed increasing their holdings, adding more than $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin to their portfolios in the last two weeks of August alone.

One more thing not to forget is the halving! Lark Davis, founder of Wealth Mastery, analyzed that historically, the accumulation period before the Bitcoin halving is often the best time to build a position. He used the Bitcoin weekly chart of RadingView to analyze that Bitcoin is expected to accelerate by 600% in the price increase phase after the next Bitcoin halving event. In addition, the "return" timetable for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Bitcoin ETF application may be in January or May 2024 (the specific time depends on the application time of different companies), which is also very coincidental with the Bitcoin "halving", and the Bitcoin narrative may be revived again at that time.

Summarize

The recent lack of direction in Bitcoin has given market participants a strong sense of déjà vu, but the crypto market in “Bloody September” may need to maintain more patience and confidence, as Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood said on social media on Sunday:

“The future convergence between Bitcoin and AI could change the way companies are organized, leading to dramatic cost reductions and explosive productivity growth. The possibilities created by these exceptional entrepreneurs will be staggering.”

Perhaps this is also the reason why some people, like Wood, firmly believe that the price of Bitcoin can reach 1 million US dollars.