How low can the price of Bitcoin go?

Bitcoin prices continue to struggle during one of the quietest periods in the cryptocurrency market’s history. Meanwhile, several technical indicators suggest that the BTC/USD pair could fall as low as $21,750 in the coming months.

Let’s take a closer look at the nearest support levels to determine how low Bitcoin price can fall.

Bear Channel Suggests BTC Price at $23K

Bitcoin has been consolidating in a sideways trading range with resistance at $26,670 and support at $25,650 since mid-August 2023. In short, BTC price breaks out of this range in response to fundamental news such as new Bitcoin ETF applications and FTX liquidation concerns.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

But overall, traders are keeping BTC prices within the $25,650-26,670 range. Broadly speaking, this range looks like a “bear flag,” a bearish continuation pattern characterized by the formation of a consolidation channel after a strong downtrend.

As a rule of technical analysis, a bear flag is declared when the price breaks out of its downside range and drops to the height of the previous downtrend. Applying these parameters to the ongoing Bitcoin price consolidation puts its bear price target at around $23,000.

Bitcoin/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In other words, by the end of the year, BTC price could drop by nearly 15% from current price levels.

Bitcoin Bear Support Setup

Bitcoin bear markets since 2017 typically end near common ascending trendline support, as shown below. BTC price tested the trendline in November 2022 at around $16,750 and has since risen 70%.

Bitcoin/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

That said, Bitcoin may have bottomed out in the ongoing bear market. However, the price needed to decisively break above the 0.236 Fibonacci level around $28,350 to confirm its long-term bullish recovery based on historical fractals — but it failed to do so.

Bitcoin currently fell below the 0.236 Fib line, increasing the possibility of a decline back to the bear trendline support also near $23,000.

Is Bitcoin's 'Death Cross' Coming?

Bitcoin is close to forming a death cross between the 50-day (red wave) and 200-day (blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMA).

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

This is the third death cross that Bitcoin has formed during the Fed’s rate hikes, with the first two crosses preceding price declines of 17-18%.

Therefore, if the fractal reappears, the bearish BTC price target in this case would be around $21,750.