Bitcoin surged 15% overnight: six reasons why

Compared with the previous quietness of the crypto market, the recent crypto market seems to have emerged from the bear market. Bitcoin prices soared 15% overnight to a high of $35,000, and Ethereum prices soared 10.7% to $1,850. Other altcoin prices also rose. The total market value of cryptocurrencies exceeded $1.3 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 10.7%. The entire crypto market has changed its previous deep bear trend and is full of green.

Golden Finance has compiled the factors that affect the current trend of the crypto market as follows.

1. BlackRock

1. BlackRock iShares BTC spot ETF code listed on DTCC

The iShares Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposed by investment firm BlackRock has been listed with the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which means it may receive approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in an Oct. 23 (ex-Twitter) post that the DTCC listing is "part of the whole process" of bringing crypto ETFs to market. The iShares Spot Bitcoin ETF, which will be listed under the ticker IBTC, may be listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, with the investment vehicle applying for listing and trading in June.

“This is the first cash ETF to be listed on the DTCC, and there are no other exchanges that have it listed on yet,” Balchunas said. “BlackRock is clearly pushing these things around the pre-listing process (seed funding, ticker, DTCC, etc.). It’s hard not to see this as a clear sign that they have approval or that it’s coming.”

2. Green light signal

Balchunas speculated: They (BlackRock) either got the "green light" from the SEC to list an ETF, or they just want to get everything ready. We still believe that multiple issuers will get approval and launch at the same time, and if we hear anything to the contrary, we will revise this view.

3. BlackRock S1 document hints at preparing Seed Capital for its spot Bitcoin ETF in October

Scott Johnsson, an American financial lawyer, said on the X platform that by studying the S-1 amendment submitted by BlackRock, he found that BlackRock had obtained the CUSIP (Committee on Uniform Securities Identification Procedures) Number prepared for the release of the Bitcoin spot ETF. In addition, BlackRock stated in the document that it hopes to prepare Seed Capital for the Bitcoin spot ETF in October. Scott Johnsson said that this is earlier than he thought, but there may be nothing. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas explained that Seed ETF refers to banks or broker-dealers (usually) providing initial funds to purchase some initial targets (in this case, Bitcoin) in exchange for ETF shares that can be traded on the open market on the first day. Seed funds are usually not much, just enough to keep the ETF running.

2. Grayscale

1. The US court officially ruled on the lawsuit between Grayscale and the SEC, and the SEC needs to re-examine the ETF conversion application

According to public court documents, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia officially ruled on Grayscale's lawsuit against the SEC, upholding its August ruling that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission needs to reconsider Grayscale Investments' application to convert its flagship GBTC fund into a spot Bitcoin ETF. The court did not issue any additional instructions to the SEC, and the ruling has officially come into effect, which means that the SEC may need to re-examine Grayscale's application for conversion to a spot Bitcoin ETF.

2. The US SEC has accepted Grayscale’s spot Ethereum ETF filing

Screenshots of regulatory documents released by ETF Store Chairman Nate Geraci show that the U.S. SEC has accepted Grayscale's spot Ethereum ETF filing, which will be the process of converting ETHE into an ETF. On October 2, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein said on the social platform that Grayscale has applied to convert Grayscale Ethereum Trust into an Ethereum spot ETF.

3. Grayscale has submitted an S-3 filing for GBTC in an attempt to obtain approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said on the X platform that Grayscale has submitted an S-3 filing for GBTC, a simplified version of the typical S-1 filing for issuing new shares, attempting to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF. Grayscale said it is eligible to file using Form S-3 because its shares have been registered under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 since January 2020 and meet other requirements of the form.

Grayscale said in a statement that GBTC intends to list on NYSE Arca under the symbol GBTC and to issue shares on an ongoing basis following approval of the stock listing application on NYSE Arca Form 19b-4 and the effectiveness of the registration stock on Form S-3.

3. SEC is no match for Ripple

1.SEC drops charges against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Executive Chairman Chris Larsen

According to a public legal document, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) withdrew the charges against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Executive Chairman Chris Larsen. The document stated that the SEC and Ripple will continue to discuss the remaining part, and the two parties intend to meet on the outstanding issues of the case (Ripple's violation of Section 5's XRP institutional sales) and agree on a possible briefing schedule, which may be completed before November 9, 2023.

Ripple issued an announcement stating that this is the third victory for Garlinghouse, Larsen and Ripple after the court ruling in July 2023 declared that "XRP itself is not a security" and the rejection of the SEC's interlocutory appeal request in October.

Ripple Labs Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty said: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made a serious mistake in charging Brad & Chris personally - now, the other party has surrendered and dismissed all charges against our executives. This is not a settlement, this is the SEC's surrender.

2. The SEC’s chances of winning the appeal against Ripple are 3%-14%.

Lawyer Bill Morgan said: The US SEC's chances of winning the appeal against Ripple are very slim.

Morgan believes that there are no clear appealable errors other than “Ripple’s failure to meet at least two prongs of the Howey test with respect to its ODL sales,” while adding that the chances of the SEC successfully appealing against Ripple are very slim, at about 3%.

Morgan’s prediction is based on another statistic shared by prominent attorney Jeremy Hogan, who shared government data on the success rates of appeals in different types of lawsuits. The data showed that the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning its appeal against Ripple.

4. Bitcoin halving

The conventional wisdom held by many is that the halving of Bitcoin’s supply is a bullish phenomenon, and that once the halving is complete, the price of Bitcoin will experience a near-parabolic rise.

1. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) believes: 1. In the months before the Bitcoin halving (from now on), there will be more and more chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope, etc. 2. The day after the halving, the Bitcoin price will not double overnight, and people usually ask why it didn’t. 3. A year after the halving, the Bitcoin price hit multiple ATHs (historical highs), and people ask why again, everyone’s memory seems to be very short.

2. Well-known analyst PlanB pointed out: In my opinion, it is not macro factors that drive the price of BTC, but scarcity/halving/S2F model.

3. Anonymous analyst BitQuant said: Bitcoin will hit a record high before the halving in 2024, with a target price above $69,000 before the halving. He also believes that Bitcoin will not only break the current record set in 2021 by April next year, but also that the price of each Bitcoin will continue to reach $250,000 after the next halving cycle begins.

4. Caitlin Long, CEO of cryptocurrency bank Custodia, said: The upcoming BTC halving is expected to have the biggest impact ever. Pantera Capital's pricing model believes that the BTC price will reach $147,843 in August 2025, which is about 480 days after the BTC halving in April next year. This is credible. In addition, the computing power continues to increase, and the unprofitable old mining machines will stop working after the halving.

5. Analysis by Blockware Solutions shows that: The 2024 Bitcoin halving could trigger a price surge, potentially pushing its value to a staggering $400,000. The expected reduction in supply in 2024 could trigger explosive demand for Bitcoin.

5. ETF progress is driving bullish market expectations:

When the deep bear market lasts too long, the market urgently needs to reignite the bull market through some event. Currently, most observers hold a bullish view on the future of the crypto market. The previous tweet about the SEC's approval of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin spot ETF instantly boosted the crypto market, reflecting the market's expectations for the bull market.

1. Stuart Barton, crypto ETF expert and chief investment officer of Volatility Shares, predicts that all spot Bitcoin ETF applications submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be approved at the same time.

2. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, predicts: If BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, Bitcoin's valuation could increase 11 times.

3. Paul Brody, EY Global Blockchain Leader, believes that Bitcoin faces a large amount of suppressed demand from institutions because US regulators have not approved spot Bitcoin ETFs for many years. Once the Bitcoin ETF is approved, trillions of dollars of institutional funds are waiting to enter the Bitcoin market.

6. Bullish expectations for the crypto market

1. Investment research company ByteTree: Bitcoin's market signal was upgraded from neutral to bullish. Bitcoin's recent trend provided a safe haven for the chaos in stock and bond trading during the difficult times in traditional financial markets.

Charlie Morris, chief investment officer of ByteTree, said: Bitcoin futures look good, especially when you compare them to the crisis in the bond market. Bitcoin is a real safe-haven asset that can avoid the risk of US Treasury bonds. At a time when the sharp rise in bond yields has a devastating impact on the market, Bitcoin is outperforming the US stock market. When interest rates peak and the bond sell-off ends, Bitcoin will take off.

2. Gabor Gur bacs, head of digital asset strategy at global asset management company VanEck, believes that Bitcoin has long-term value: Bitcoin's first decade is to store value. The second decade is mainly business, and the third decade will be the capital market. If the global macro is still not good, 2 and 3 may switch.

3. Tim Draper, a well-known venture capitalist, believes in the transformative power of Bitcoin and thinks it has the potential to reach $250,000, although it may not be until 2024 or 2025. His confidence in Bitcoin's ability to revolutionize finance and maintain its long-term value is unwavering.

4. Standard Chartered's bullish outlook for Bitcoin: By the end of this year, the value of Bitcoin will rise to $50,000, and by the end of 2024, the value of Bitcoin may soar to $120,000.