Viewpoint: The next stage after BTC breaks $40,000

Looking back at Chang'an, the embroidery is piled up, and the thousands of doors on the mountaintop are opened one after another (December 4)

It’s been two weeks since I last wrote a weekly report. I’ve been so busy at work and was in a daze about all the year-end celebrations and farewells. Fortunately, the market was good and I benefited from it. After Bitcoin reaches 40,000, I’ll talk about my views on the next stage.

1. ETF is a foregone conclusion in terms of trend, but the news has been basically priced in. Since reaching 35K for the first time on October 24, BTC's momentum has weakened. After a few weeks of speculation on whether the ETF would be approved before Thanksgiving, it continued to fluctuate until the CME OI continued to soar around Thanksgiving to continue the market (CME has been premium so far). This wave of pull-ups is more interesting because it was opened during non-CME trading hours, and CME jumped high. According to the logic that the gap must be filled in 21 years, this is actually a pressure point. CME, not Binance, has become the engine of the market. My personal understanding is to observe CME's real-time data and weekly position reports. Although there is a delay, it is also an excellent reference indicator. The market situation up to this point is very similar to that in December-January 2020. There is a high probability that something unexpected will happen before it passes. It mainly depends on whether there are new expectations. If not, it is expected that there will be a correction in December. However, from the perspective of operating strategy, what should be paid attention to now is the height of BTC after it passes, which is the daily level operation mentioned earlier (this depends on personal watching time and risk preference. If the risk preference is low, I think it is necessary to consider the risks around Christmas, or even earlier).

2. Most of the copycats did not break through the height of 38K in the previous wave, but a number of non-consensus targets emerged , such as Ordi, Luna series, etc. In the previously summarized ETH defi and AI, AI also relied on the non-consensus target Tao to drive the overall situation, while the Wld and Rndr in the exchange were not that strong. If you are wrong, admit it. The Alpha here may be a non-consensus target under the big narrative, or even dig for gold in the 1-10M targets on the chain. I have seen a lot of CT on specific targets, most of them are good, just do a good job of research. I have been restricted by too many projects and know too many black histories. Finally, I really can't play Bitcoin ecology/inscriptions, please guide me more.

3. Regarding the market of ETH and ETH derivatives, my expectation is that it may be more direct after the ETF is passed and before and after the Cancun upgrade. Of course, it is not ruled out that if Btc has a wave of pullbacks at the end of December, it will take over. It depends on whether there is a pullback and the depth of the pullback. In terms of specific targets, after the Ldo Staking rate is too high, LDO has gradually become an outlier in the ETH ecosystem, and it is much weaker from the perspective of orthodoxy. Here we look at the orthodox RPL+OP vs the unorthodox LDO + ARB batch. Which one performs better after the launch of ETH? I buy in unorthodox.

3. We should gradually start to pay attention to the effect of new coins (note that they are not Binance’s new coins). From Flip to many Gate/Mexc (platform coins have performed well), the new targets are all good. Generally, at this time, there will be several top IDO projects on the chain.