Analysts tell you: How to determine whether Bitcoin has reached its peak?

Celebrities promoting non-fungible tokens (NFTs), big-budget cryptocurrency ads and mainstream brands adopting crypto slang — these are signs to watch during the next bull run that could signal its peak, cryptocurrency analysts say.

The crypto industry is expected to see a major surge in 2024. Is there a way to predict when the next bull market peak will arrive? Analysts believe there is.

Ben Simpson, founder of crypto education platform Collective Shift, noted that “when everyone seems to be making money” is one of the first indicators that he believes the crypto market may be nearing a peak.

He said that during these times, he never expected that people would start talking about cryptocurrencies and how they could trade them and make money.

"Whenever I started seeing supercars, mansions and Rolexes, I thought: 'This might be a bit too much.'

Another indicator he drew from the last bull cycle was when crypto exchanges like FTX and Crypto.com were flush with cash, they “didn’t even know what to do with it” and launched expensive marketing blitzes that took over stadiums, naming rights, and Super Bowl ad spots.

Meanwhile, software engineer and cryptocurrency critic Molly White said celebrity endorsements of cryptocurrencies and NFT projects are “a huge top-level signal” to her.

White specifically pointed out that many celebrities have used NFTs as their social media avatars, with Kim Kardashian raising money for EthereumMAX — she was later fined $1.26 million for promoting the cryptocurrency — and former teen heartthrob Justin Bieber paying $1.3 million for an NFT of the Bored Ape Yacht Club.

Paris Hilton and Jimmy Fallon promoting their Bored Ape NFTs on The Tonight Show was also a major top-level signal for White.

Other indicators she pointed to included big brands like Adidas and Coca-Cola “jumping on the crypto bandwagon,” and “incredibly embarrassing social media posts” from brands adopting crypto slang like “WAGMI.”

She shared X (Twitter) posts from major beverage companies Budweiser and Pepsi as examples of things that are “burned into my mind.”

“It was a crazy time,” she said. “It was clear the bubble had overinflated.”

Simpson said that for him, such sentiment signals are “the final piece of the puzzle,” and that focusing on on-chain metrics is an essential component in estimating market tops.

“Once they start selling or taking their chips away, that’s a good sign that it’s time to start taking profits.”

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia, prefers to stick to technical analysis – looking at past activity to predict future activity – which “helps assess future market direction”.

“Nobody wants to be the guy who buys high before prices come back down.”

One of the tools he finds useful is the relative strength index (RSI) indicator , which measures momentum by comparing closing prices to its 50-day moving average to indicate whether an asset may be overbought or oversold to watch for "bearish divergences."

Upward RSI momentum is often seen as pointing to an upcoming rally. “A bearish divergence occurs when a rising RSI indicator is not confirmed by rising prices,” Sycamore explained.

Simpson added that it is also easy to tell when new money is entering the space by looking at the amount of cryptocurrencies held on exchanges, as well as the volume and supply of stablecoins.

“Take the chips off the table before anyone else does,” he said. “Once the music stops, it stops.”