Gemini 2024 Crypto Trends Report: Industry Experts Talk ETFs, Halving, AI, and More

2024 will be a watershed year for cryptocurrency.

1. Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin price will rise 123% within one year of Bitcoin spot ETF approval. Based on the historical relationship between gold holdings and returns, an increase in Bitcoin holdings after approval could drive price activity.

Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would mark a major milestone in the legitimization of Bitcoin as an institutional-grade investment. It would prove that Bitcoin is real, resilient, and here to stay.

Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could give U.S. investment funds access to Bitcoin, boosting the crypto asset class into the $36.7 trillion retirement fund market .

What do you think will be the most impactful outcome of the ETF approval?

James Seyffart , ETF research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence:

The biggest impact will be opening up spot Bitcoin exposure in an efficient way on traditional financial rails. I think it will be the easiest way for advisors and some institutions to get exposure to spot Bitcoin. It may also be the preferred vehicle for individuals seeking Bitcoin investment in tax-advantaged accounts such as IRAs. Don’t underestimate the convenience and efficiency that ETF products can provide .

The biggest potential obstacle (which we think is unlikely) is that the SEC can still deny and delay on a technicality if they really want to. Beyond that, we can't be sure what issues or topics the SEC and potential issuers are discussing, but it is likely centered on the back-end processing of the spot Bitcoin ETF. That is, who will handle the actual Bitcoin when funds or Bitcoin flow into or out of the ETF. There are currently 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs filed, and there are many differences in how each fund will handle this step.

Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck :

ETF approval has become An important symbolic step towards mainstream adoption of Bitcoin It’s not normal for U.S. regulators to approve an investment that drives asset prices higher, but it would be a significant, insurmountable political hurdle — something that Bitcoin has always faced.

Amanda Cassatt, CEO of Serotonin and author of Web3 Marketing:

I foresee a Institutional adoption surges , driven by the growth of ETFs and financial institutions launching stablecoins. The catalyst? Familiar, trusted wealth managers privately approaching existing clients to promote the benefits of investing in cryptocurrencies.

Peter McCormack , host of the What Bitcoin Did blog and chairman of Real Bedford Football Club:

ETF speculation has been rife this year, with growing signs that the SEC will eventually approve not one but many ETFs, including ones from some of the world’s largest financial institutions. We may see a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin as institutional money will seek to invest in Bitcoin. ETFs will also cause some disagreement, with some arguing that awareness of these institutions and a significant increase in the number of validators are necessary for the growth of Bitcoin. In contrast, others worry that these institutions may exert pressure on the future direction of Bitcoin, while Bitcoin capital is highly concentrated . The most important thing Bitcoin enthusiasts can do is to ensure that the fundamental principles of Bitcoin are maintained.

2. AI and Cryptocurrency

Artificial intelligence (AI) -related tokens have seen significant price increases, indicating growing market interest and confidence.

The intersection of AI and cryptocurrency ushers in a new era of possibilities that promises to redefine the entire crypto ecosystem.

Both AI and cryptocurrency represent extremely powerful models of technological capabilities, but they also have shortcomings that have yet to be addressed. A thoughtful integration of these two revolutionary technologies could establish a path for them to complement each other’s strengths.

AI innovations revolutionize smart contracts, support secure data solutions, enable transparent large-scale language models, and combat misinformation.

What advances in AI and cryptocurrency do you find most interesting?

Amanda Cassatt, CEO of Serotonin and author of Web3 Marketing:

We have observed an increase in projects that merge AI and web3 technologies into a usable form factor, combining web3 style monetization, provenance tracking and attribution of digital content or proxies with payment functionality. AI’s ability to create content is beyond human processing capabilities, and soon we will presume that content is fake and rely on on-chain proofs for verification. In the near future, most payments will be made on-chain by AI agents on behalf of people . These agents will interact with the blockchain’s user experience, bundling their transactions and presenting them to humans in an understandable way. We also foresee code auditing companies developing copilot versions for smart contract writers, so AI can assist in verifying the quality of smart contract code during creation (not just after creation). (AI code audits after creation are also useful.) The argument that DeFi protocols are more prone to bugs, hacks, and errors, one of the last arguments in favor of CeFi over DeFi, will soon become obsolete, thanks to the help of AI!

Bankless analyst Jack Inabinet:

Crypto + AI could be an explosive combination. While early activity has been dominated by worthless projects circulated to capitalize on the hype, the promise is huge. From AI agents leveraging cryptocurrency markets to access financial networks, to decentralized computing protocols opening GPU access to everyone, to projects reimagining blockchain as a marketplace for AI output, there’s a lot to be excited about. It remains to be seen which use cases spark the initial adoption, But the unlimited freedom of cryptocurrency combined with the unknown capabilities of AI presents us with a powerful opportunity for 2024.

3. Bitcoin halving

The price of Bitcoin has seen a parabolic rise in the period following each of the first three halving events. Bitcoin’s fourth halving is expected to occur in April 2024. The upcoming halving will reduce Bitcoin’s mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, thereby reducing the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market.

The halving reaffirms one of Bitcoin’s fundamental truths and greatest value propositions: Bitcoin is predictable, reliable, and trustworthy.

In April 2024, we will witness another great milestone in the life cycle of Bitcoin.

How will technological advancements and global economic changes affect the market reaction to the 2024 Bitcoin halving? Do you expect it to be different from past cycles, with indirect effects on the cryptocurrency industry and the broader global economy?

Jason Williams, investor and author of Bitcoin: Hard Money You Can't F*ck With :

A potential Bitcoin spot ETF aligns very well with the halving event. Typically, 180 days after the halving, Bitcoin price sees significant movement. This would align very well with the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF on January 6, 2024, and the historical price action of gold spot ETFs. Gold took about two years to go parabolic from approval. I think this event creates real potential for a significant move higher. When BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is approved, they will need to acquire hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to meet end customer demand. There is no way they could hoard so much Bitcoin without the price fluctuating wildly. This is the core question they are actively researching right now and is part of my thesis on why the price of Bitcoin will go up. 20.76x Bitcoin is worth $789,000.

Peter McCormack, host of the What Bitcoin Did blog and chairman of Real Bedford Football Club:

As we approach the fourth Bitcoin halving event, All eyes are on mining as the hash rate has increased significantly this year. The upcoming halving will reduce the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block, which could put pressure on the financial sustainability of mining companies. However, rising Bitcoin prices, driven by ETF speculation and other macroeconomic factors, coupled with growing demand for block space, have led to growing mining revenues. If this growth is maintained, miners can successfully weather the halving while maintaining strong profit margins.

IV. Supervision

While many regulators around the world have made strides in regulating cryptocurrencies over the past year, the EU stands out for its influence in traditional global markets and the quality and thoughtfulness of its approach.

In April 2023, the EU passed MiCA, hailed as the most important crypto regulation to date.

A regulatory regime hostile to cryptocurrencies will not only force top players offshore, but could also pose an existential threat to the economy as the AI ​​revolution arrives and the next wave of value creation emerges in Web3 innovation.

The United States is at a crossroads when it comes to cryptocurrency regulation. Enforcement oversight fails to provide needed clarity or protect consumers while stifling innovation.

How do you expect the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies to develop in 2024?

Ji Kim, General Counsel and Global Policy Director of the Cryptocurrency Innovation Council (CCI), Digital Asset:

One of the bigger stories of 2024 will be the continued jockeying for top status among jurisdictions, racing to become a key hub for digital assets and the future financial system. We are already seeing this in the UK, EU, UAE, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and more – there is an ongoing competition among leading countries to have the most credible regulatory frameworks to attract business growth and innovation. Governments around the world are clearly recognizing that cryptocurrencies and their associated infrastructure are here to stay. The question now is which countries can consolidate their position as key hubs.

These international developments will naturally begin to influence U.S. cryptocurrency policy in a positive way. Last year, we saw growing bipartisan support in Congress for a regulatory framework to promote responsible cryptocurrency innovation. Overall, while the U.S. may be a few steps behind, progress is being made globally, and it is likely that Whether the U.S. will move forward with aggressive cryptocurrency policy development is more a matter of when than if. This necessity will become more apparent over time given the SEC’s continued judicial losses, which highlight the limits of enforcement regulation.

Gillian Lynch, Head of EU at Gemini:

The industry has been battle-tested over the past year, but cryptocurrencies are not going away. In fact, as history has shown, The industry will most likely emerge stronger if there are some much-needed guardrails to protect all participants. While opinions on cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology may still differ, I believe most would agree that the crypto industry requires a regulatory framework that puts customer protection at its core while striking a balance between creating a clear and consistent rulebook that ultimately helps foster innovation.

5. Safety

Hackers and scammers will target any place they can find money. Crypto and web3 are no exception.

Attackers will find new and evolving methods to access wallets and accounts. Unphishable multi-factor authentication (MFA), such as keys and Yubikey, will become indispensable for Web3 companies and customers to ensure the security of their assets.

The security industry will turn more attention to Web3 security tools and protections. Some of these will become tools for security professionals, such as SOAR (security orchestration automation and response) and detection platforms focused on Web3. Consumers will also see new tools and technologies to protect their Web3 accounts and assets, bringing decades of Web2 security advances to Web3.

More resilient security measures, such as advances in phishing detection, represent some of the industry’s biggest opportunities. Careers in cryptographic security will be one of the fastest growing fields in the coming years.

The Web3 industry is working to develop security frameworks, guidelines, and best practices. Last year, Gemini worked with other industry leaders to create the REKT test, a tool that blockchain companies can use to assess whether their projects include basic safeguards and comply with best practices for access control, key management, and security against other hacker attack vectors.

What are the most prevalent threats and what is your outlook for 2024?

Khaja Ahmed, Chief Security Officer at Gemini:

In recent years, important personal information of most consumers has been stolen in numerous hacks of large organizations. Criminals are trading Social Security numbers, email addresses, physical addresses, credit card numbers, credit files, medical histories, and more. This allows scammers and fraudsters to launch more targeted and sophisticated attacks, and increases the challenge of protecting consumers from financial loss. Consumers must be more aware of the types of scams that are about to occur, and Service providers must be more vigilant to detect if their customers’ accounts have been taken over by attackers.

Shaun Blackburn, Director of Cloud Security at Gemini:

We are starting to see classic impersonation attacks escalate as generative AI like ChatGPT make it easier than ever to write phishing emails and even generate realistic video impersonations of anyone, and new scams will occur where attackers use the tools available to them to simply trick users into giving up access. Even so, I’m really excited about the progress the industry is making with Key because it provides a simple, easily accessible security solution for everyone. This simple protection can greatly improve security.

6. New Trends

Which trends do you expect to be in the spotlight in 2024?

Balaji, angel investor and author of The Network State:

The sovereign debt crisis is happening, but it has not yet been widely recognized. If there is no repeat of the 2008 “parachute measures” , Parallel global financial systems This becomes even more important.

Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clemente:

Bitcoin will consolidate as Institutional-grade global macroeconomic assets.

Pudgy Penguins CEO Luca Netz:

I believe 2024 and beyond will be the year of consumer-facing cryptocurrency brands as I believe this is the next necessary step for cryptocurrency to achieve mass adoption. The industry needs to shift from a narrative of economic gain to one around digital ownership and accessibility I believe that consumers facing the cryptocurrency revolution will be key to reshaping this narrative.

Crypto investment KOL Lady of Crypto:

The past 15 years have been a warm-up; now, Now it’s time for the main event. Mass adoption has arrived, and with it, we will see a ton of Web 2 giants getting involved in crypto. I think gaming will be the first area to break out of Bitcoin. Games had basic digital currencies and collectibles before cryptocurrencies; the combination of blockchain and gaming was inevitable.

Azuki Researcher Wale Swoosh:

I think gaming will be one of the mega trends that will define 2024. Gaming has always been and will always be the great Trojan Horse when it comes to cryptocurrency adaptation. Gaming is an area where the advantages of cryptocurrency are easy to understand and clear. I firmly believe that the Web3 gaming trend we saw at the end of 2023 will not only continue next year, but will become more pronounced.

Alex Finn, founder of 1% Better:

I think in 2024 Cryptocurrencies that truly unlock experiences will generate value. People will be less willing to spend money on purely speculative assets. They will first ask "What will this token unlock for me? Will it give me an advantage in online games? Will it give me access to elite communities? How will this token improve my life?" We are now 10 years into cryptocurrency development and the actual products behind these tokens will finally appear.

O Show host Wendy O:

I am very excited about crypto in 2024. I really think the emerging trends we will see will be Bitcoin, Bitcoin Ordinals, BRC 20 tokens, and GameFi (being able to actually own the assets you purchase in-game), and of course RWA. I think being able to own IRL assets and NFTs is really important, and ordinals solve that problem. An NFT is an ordinal number that allows people to own their own assets - just like Bitcoin allows people to be in charge of their own money.