There are different opinions on the prospects of spot Ethereum ETF, and ETH is struggling to hold the $2,200 mark

After the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved for trading, investors' focus gradually turned to Ethereum, because the spot Ethereum ETF filings submitted by BlackRock and other companies are awaiting SEC approval. Today, the US SEC announced the postponement of the decision on BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF. Ethereum fell below the $2,200 mark in the short term, with a daily decline of about 2%. However, on the surface, the SEC's delayed decision seems to have been digested by the market, and ETH's 24-hour volatility hovers within 1%.

Spot Ethereum ETF Approval Prospects

Industry insiders have different views on the approval of the spot Ethereum ETF.

“We believe that if the SEC approves a spot Ethereum ETF in May, it will need to classify Ethereum as a commodity (similar to Bitcoin ) rather than a security,” JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said earlier this month. “This is far from certain, and I think there is no more than a 50% chance that the SEC will classify Ethereum as a commodity before May.”

Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett lays out the various opinions and viewpoints surrounding the potential approval timeline for a spot Ethereum ETF, discussing insights from ETF issuers, investment management firms, and sources close to the SEC.

• A Bitcoin spot ETF issuer that is awaiting approval for an ETH spot ETF said it believes the successful approval and seamless launch of a Bitcoin ETF could influence the SEC to approve an ETH spot ETF.

• In contrast, another source offered a counter-point, saying the current sentiment at the SEC is “firmly no,” though there is some resistance to the idea within the SEC.
  

• Another source believes that the approval path for an ETH spot ETF may be smoother, pointing to the listing of an ETH futures ETF and BlackRock’s track record in getting ETFs approved. They expect a launch could be in late summer.

• In response to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler ’s ambiguous stance on Ethereum’s potential status as a security, sources pointed out that the CFTC classified ETH as a commodity, while Ripple won a partial victory, with XRP not being considered a security in secondary market transactions. This led them to believe that Gensler may find it difficult to prove that most digital assets are securities.
  

• Additionally, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce stressed the need to avoid repeating past delays with spot Ethereum ETFs and stressed the importance of applying “regular approach” considerations to these products, similar to other similar products.
  

Terrett concluded that the SEC holds the key to the fate of the Ethereum ETF and expects to see more clues in the coming months regarding SEC staff reviewing S-1 filings, similar to the previous review path for the Bitcoin spot ETF.

U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler was also asked about his views on the spot Ethereum ETF at a media briefing today. He said: "Everything we do with the spot Bitcoin ETF is limited to this non-security product and should not be interpreted as anything else beyond that."

Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, previously predicted that there was a 70% chance that an Ethereum ETF would be approved this year. His colleague James Seyffart gave a slightly more cautious estimate.

He said: "I would just say that there are two very clear bear and bull scenarios for the approval probability of an Ethereum ETF. We think the probability of approval is over 50%, but not as confident as we are for a Bitcoin ETF, which we predict is about 60-65% probability."

Ethereum price may continue to retrace

Technical analysis shows that Ethereum is currently at a critical price point. From a technical perspective, the $2,200 level is an important support area. If the price stays above this level, it may attract buyers to enter the market, thereby driving the price to rebound. On the contrary, if it falls below this level, it may trigger further selling pressure.

According to the latest market data, Ethereum is currently priced at $2,236. Crypto analyst Lockridge Okoth believes that the hourly MACD – MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone as short liquidity is below the critical level. The hourly RSI – RSI for ETH/USD is currently below the 50 level, so the main downward support is $2,165 and the main upward resistance is $2,480. A break below the downward support may lead the price to fall further, testing the support levels of $2,120 and $2,000.