Cryptocurrency roller coaster: What did I experience from bottom-fishing to missing out and then re-entering the market?

After BTC broke through 64,000, I followed the trading plan, admitted defeat and bought back the position, and the sharp rise in Dogecoin in the past two days also made up for my lost profits.

But I am still in a state of stiffness and dizziness. The crazy rise of Bitcoin from $52,000 to $64,000 seems more like a black swan to me, which has shattered the original trading plan. I believe many people in the market have this feeling.

After an in-depth discussion with my community friends at the investment research weekly meeting yesterday, I have three new judgments that I would like to share with you for your correction:

1⃣After using OpenBB to decompose the factors of this wave of rise, it is found that the core driving factors of this wave of rise are Cycle Trend (long-term trend, 4-year currency cycle and Bitcoin production reduction cycle) and Cycle Component (short-term trend, seasonal cycle within the year). The specific analysis is as follows:

--Backtesting historical data, risk assets will experience a wave of speculation before the US economic cycle is confirmed to be in recession. The current US economic cycle is just in the pre-recession stage, and history is repeating itself. The Nasdaq index of major risk assets hit a new high, and BTC rose strongly.

--Seasonal factors. There is nothing much to say, there is a spring market almost every year;

--After the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, hot money from the US stock market poured into this new asset class. Although the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in the past 7 days was less than that of the previous week, it still had a net inflow of US$2.15 billion.

2⃣The nature of this wave of rising market is the tail market of Pre-Bull, not the main rising wave of the real bull market. One of the typical characteristics of the tail market is the collective surge of MeMe coins and the sudden Fomo sentiment contagion in the primary market.

3⃣Glassnode's on-chain index shows that the market has entered a state of full speculation, but the duration of this irrational market state may far exceed the expectations of rational investors. According to known information, the current bubble process is likely to continue until the Fed officially cuts interest rates in June this year. So instead of arguing whether the market is bubbled, it is better to think about how to build an investment portfolio to get a share of this bubble. We can't be the ones who win the debate but don't make money.