Bitcoin and gold team up to hit the Fed

A solitary smoke rises straight in the desert, and the sun sets over the long river.

On April 5, the internal reference of Jiaolian, "Researchers say BTC is expected to return to $70,000 this weekend", mentioned that the Federal Reserve has recently been managing expectations (deception) and suppressing the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. " On Thursday (April 4), Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that if inflation remains sticky, there may be no need to cut interest rates this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also said on Wednesday (April 3) that the Fed needs more evidence that inflation is continuing to move toward the 2% target before cutting interest rates. "

Affected by the Fed's hawkish tone, expectations for a rate cut in June have been falling again and again, from 70% not long ago to around 50%.

However, gold did not give the Fed any face at all and continued to advance to a new historical high of $2,300 per ounce, dealing a heavy blow to the Fed's hawkish stance.

The Fed holds the switch to cut interest rates, which is the main reason why people listen to it. The Fed has made a verbal statement to reduce expectations for rate cuts. The lower expectations for rate cuts and the weakening expectations for liquidity easing should suppress gold and BTC. However, gold and BTC responded to all this with an increase in prices.

However, there is another way to tell the story.

The market prices expectations, and the rise and fall of the market are the derivatives of expectations.

On April 5, the US non-farm payrolls data was released, which greatly exceeded expectations.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March, far exceeding expectations of 200,000.

In this beautiful fairy tale-like story, the Federal Reserve saw this employment data that far exceeded expectations in advance and was worried that the data would be released suddenly and would shock the market. So it took the initiative and sounded hawkish calls for two days before the data was released to manage expectations.

This is just like when we tell others a bad news, we always show a serious expression first. When others see our serious expression, they will be prepared for the bad news that will come next.

It is really flattering to see the Federal Reserve taking such good care of the market.

The curve between long-term and short-term U.S. Treasury bond interest rates has been inverted for 1 year and 9 months.

In the article "Israel-Palestine War, Fed Surrenders" published on October 10, 2023, the relationship between the inversion of long-term and short-term interest rates of US debt and economic recessions in history was shown. It is precisely related and well-thought-out. And every recession will force the Fed to reverse its high-interest rate policy and switch to a rate cut channel.

For long-term holders of BTC, all they need to do is wait and see, victory will surely come.

The "Eight Characters·Ten Years of Agreement" real-time witness plan, which was launched on June 6, 2023, has today (April 6, 2024) ushered in the 21st record and the 13th increase in positions. The price of this increase in positions is $67,668.

After adding positions, the holdings have accumulated to 5.746 million Satoshis, with an average cost of $33,698 and a ROI (return of interest) of 104%.

The rain is trickling outside the curtain, and the spring is fading.

The silk quilt cannot withstand the cold at five o'clock in the morning.

I don’t realize that I am just a guest in the dream, and I enjoy myself for a moment.

Don't lean on the railing alone, there is an endless landscape.

It is easy to say goodbye, but hard to meet again.

The flowing water and falling flowers mark the end of spring, leaving heaven and earth.