BTC is stuck in a volatile situation, and the market is looking for the next direction

$62,000- $63,000 seems to be the biggest resistance for Bitcoin to continue to rise. Bitpush terminal data shows that Bitcoin fell to around $61,700 three times during Tuesday's trading, and then rebounded. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,731.24, with a 24-hour volatility of less than 1%.

Altcoins fell more than rose, and most of the top 100 altcoins by market value closed down . Celestia (TIA) led the gains, with a 24-hour increase of 14.50%, followed by meme coin Pepe (PEPE), up 6.14%, and Fantom (FTM), up 4.05%. Pendle (PENDLE) fell the most, down 10.98%, followed by Ondo (ONDO), down 10.41%, and Ethena (ENA), down 8.77%.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap is currently $2.29 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 53.88%.

All three major U.S. stock indices failed to gather any positive momentum. At the close, the S&P and Nasdaq closed slightly lower, down 0.21% and 0.12% respectively, while the Dow Jones edged up 0.17%.

Exchanges’ Bitcoin reserves could be depleted by January

According to a new report from cryptocurrency exchange Bybit , the recent entry of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs makes this week’s halving unique and unprecedented, with the end result being that exchanges’ Bitcoin reserves could be depleted by January 2025.

Bybit said: “Bitcoin began to recover in early October last year (2023), about six months before the halving in April 2024. However, it was also in October that large traditional financial giants began to apply to operate Bitcoin spot ETFs.”

Bitcoin reserves across all centralized exchanges are being depleted faster than in any other cycle since ETFs began trading, and this new demand is expected to continue as TradFi beefs up its sales force and markets the funds to capital-rich retirees and other investors.

The analysts wrote: "CEX has only 2 million bitcoins left in its reserves. If we assume that $500 million flows into the Bitcoin spot ETF every day, then approximately 7,142 bitcoins will flow out of the exchange reserves every day, which means it will only take 9 months to consume all the remaining reserves."

Bybit analysts also pointed out that data shows that miners are selling reserves much faster before the halving than before the 2020 halving. This may also exacerbate the supply crunch after the halving and may cause CEX reserves to be quickly depleted. They said: "At the same time, Web 2.0 publicity will revolve around the Bitcoin halving, leading to FOMO-driven behavior from new investors."

Bybit has made some recommendations based on their analysis.

“It would be wise to take profits six months after the halving, before the end of 2024. Past cycles suggest a twelve-month window after the halving. However, we observe more profit taking before the halving, limiting the upside after the halving,” they wrote.

Investors await geopolitical easing

“Ahead of this week’s Bitcoin halving (expected on April 20), investors have reduced their exposure to BTC and are likely waiting on the sidelines for tensions in the Middle East to ease,” CryptoQuant analysts said in a report.

According to market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock , 1 million addresses bought more than 530,000 BTC at an average price of $64,300, and this price range can serve as an important support. But if it falls below this support level, the next major support level is about $56,000. IntoTheBlock said: "While this does not mean that Bitcoin must fall so low, it is best to keep this range in mind as prices explore recent lows."

Analyzing the current Bitcoin market structure, Tom Dunleavy, cryptocurrency analyst and partner at MV Capital, noted that the percentage of long-term holders’ cash-out value is over 40%, well above the 10% that historically defines BTC tops. The analyst said: “With many ongoing catalysts (halving, further ETF flows, BTC L2), we see no reason to doubt that a near-term correction will continue, followed by a full-speed march toward $150,000 by early 2025.”