Will Ethereum miss out on this bull run?

" Ethereum will miss out on this bull cycle."

I've heard this sentiment among investors since at least September 2023.

Crypto jumping over them means ETH is underperforming, i.e. ETH is underperforming BTC or barely beating BTC.

Now, you can look at this from the perspective of people who don’t like Ethereum, who think that “Ethereum is dead” and has been replaced by “newer technology”. I think that’s a boring, one-dimensional view, and demonstrably wrong. I remain a full-on ETH bull.

So let’s analyze this from a long-term bullish perspective on Ethereum.

I hear two perspectives from ETH bulls.

1) Ethereum will not be involved in this cycle

Why? Because Ethereum is going through that awkward, emotional phase where it’s trying to mature and the world can’t understand this development.

The biggest change in Ethereum this cycle is L2. This is Ethereum basically telling new users not to use the mainnet - "Hey, we're too expensive, but the good news is we have 100 shiny new L2s that you're going to love!"

Bridges, fragments, frustrations, repetition.

But L2 is Ethereum!

Yes, yes, I totally know that’s right. L2s are awesome, they are the best long term way to scale decentralization, and are Vitalik’s vision… etc.

You don’t need to tell me – I’ve been modularizing since 2021, but the thing is, I’m not a new marginal buyer of ETH!

Who are the new buyers? It’s Chad, a Memecoin user. It’s Stacy, an app user. It’s Larry, a TradFi user.

But Chad and Stacy are busy buying tokens on the chain they are using, there are 96 options on L2beat. Meanwhile, Larry is buying Bitcoin - do you think he really cares about on-chain cash flow right now?

But fragmentation is being addressed, and fundamentals matter because…

Ethereum is gritting its teeth and taking the hard road, going through its necessary awkward phases to become a mature and well-functioning full-fledged blockchain.

It’s a long-term investment, but will it pay off in this bull cycle?

In this view? No. We missed the cycle.

2) ETH bull run is coming

Now, let’s look at the second ETH bull case…

Of course, $10,000 ETH is coming… just wait a minute. First BTC, then ETH! That’s how it happens!

In fact, you’d be a fool if you didn’t know how much stronger Ethereum is right now than it was during the 2020 cycle.

Ethereum has rock solid monetary economics. The world’s largest exchange is launching ETH L2. zkEVM is here. Unlimited L2 budgets are accelerating ETH technology. We are on the brink of an ETH ETF! BlackRock is launching tokenized treasuries… need I say more?

Ethereum is the basis for 1,000 chains, each with 1 million users.

What to do if L2 chain is fragmented?

This will 100% be fixed. In the meantime, other blockchains are taking on insane amounts of centralization debt that they will eventually have to pay back!

Overall, it's only a matter of time before investors wake up and start paying attention to cash flow. ETH missing out on this cycle would be the dumbest outcome, and the likelihood is so small it's barely worth considering. Yes, the ETH bull run is coming.