How Could Cryptocurrency Influence the 2024 US Election?

Ahead of the June 2024 U.S. presidential debate between Biden and Trump, voters expressed concerns about uncertainty: wars rage around the world, political discourse continues to be deeply polarized, and the U.S. economy continues to suffer from inflation, among other things. Amid this uncertainty, crypto assets are increasingly having an impact on the election , as a new survey conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale finds. Key takeaways include:

• We believe Bitcoin’s relevance is increasing due to macro dynamics and Bitcoin’s own maturity, with nearly half of voters (47%) now expecting part of their portfolio to include cryptocurrencies (up from 40% at the end of last year).

• As in the first phase of this year’s poll, respondents ranked inflation as their top issue in the election (28%), again highlighting the potential value of assets with a transparent and hard supply cap, such as Bitcoin.

• Trump strongly supported cryptocurrencies during his campaign, and recent cryptocurrency bills FIT21 and SAB 121 have received bipartisan support in Congress. Data from the Harris Poll supports the view that cryptocurrency is a bipartisan topic of concern, with similar rates among Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%).

• The headlines are already brewing: Will November be “Bitcoin Election Month”?

Crypto assets are gaining attention

Grayscale believes that interest in Bitcoin is increasing due to macro developments and Bitcoin's maturity as an asset. Over the past six months, voters have shown an increasing interest in Bitcoin (41% now, compared to just 34% in November 2023) due to geopolitical tensions, inflation, and dollar risk since the first phase of this survey. Notably, inflation is the top issue in the election so far, according to voters (28%), highlighting the potential value of an asset like Bitcoin that has a transparent and hard supply cap.

Importantly, the Grayscale team added some new questions to the survey for consideration, and the Harris Poll found that Bitcoin-related events, including the approval of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 and the halving in April 2024, made voters more interested in investing in Bitcoin and other crypto assets (18% and 20%, respectively). In particular, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF made 9% of retired voters more interested in investing in Bitcoin or crypto assets.

Figure 1: Voters are increasingly interested in Bitcoin

2024 has been a banner year for Bitcoin so far. The price of Bitcoin hit an all-time high on March 13, 2024; moreover, the price of Bitcoin has been higher every day so far in 2024 than in previous election years. The headlines are already brewing: Will November be “Bitcoin Election Month”?

Figure 2: Bitcoin prices are higher than ever before during elections

The growing interest in cryptocurrencies isn’t limited to Bitcoin. Rather, it extends to a broader view of crypto assets, both in terms of general interest and willingness to invest. Nearly a third of voters (32%) say they’ve become more willing to learn about cryptocurrency investing or actually invest in crypto since the beginning of the year. Voters are also more likely to view crypto as a good long-term investment opportunity than they were in November 2023 (23% vs. 19%) and increasingly expect to have crypto in their portfolios (47% vs. 40%).

Figure 3: Voters increasingly expect their portfolios to include cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrency is a bipartisan political issue

Despite Trump’s increased support for cryptocurrencies during the campaign, the data shows that cryptocurrencies are a bipartisan issue, with similar rates among Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%).

Voters are split on which political party is more supportive of the industry, as equal shares of voters (30% each) believe that the Democratic and Republican parties have the most favorable stance on cryptocurrency policy. These findings suggest that support for cryptocurrency is not entirely skewed toward one party, but rather indicates a balance of interests across the political spectrum. This is consistent with recent bipartisan congressional support for SAB 121, which allows financial institutions to act as custodians for digital assets, which could increase accessibility for cryptocurrency investors.

Nonetheless, Republican voters tend to cite inflation and economic issues as the most pressing issues facing the United States (54% vs. 33% for Democrats). While ownership levels are similar across parties, Republicans appear to place more importance on issues related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies (inflation and the economy) , while data shows that Democrats are more concerned about issues such as gun violence, climate change, and income inequality relative to Republicans, as shown in Figure 4 below. This may explain why Trump has recently been inclined to support cryptocurrencies during his campaign.

Figure 4: Most pressing issues facing the political parties

in conclusion

The United States stands at a fork in the road. Both candidates have different macro policies on government deficits and debt, inflation and Federal Reserve independence, and the United States’ role in the world; each of these positions has a direct impact on the dollar and Bitcoin.

As voters become more interested in cryptocurrencies, the next administration’s attitude toward this emerging digital asset will be very important. This is especially important for gaining votes from young people, as 62% of Gen Z and Millennial voters believe that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are the future of finance. Regardless, as November approaches, it is clear that all policymakers and candidates preparing for the 2024 election will increasingly consider cryptocurrencies.