Big Divergence: Up or Down by the End of 2024?

"On Friday, there was a thunderclap!" Overnight, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released non-farm payrolls that exceeded expectations, as well as slightly higher-than-expected unemployment data. It was shocking and everyone was shocked. A detailed analysis, if you haven't seen it, you can click the link and open the 6.7 Teaching Chain Internal Reference to see it all. Faced with the expected impact of this data, BTC (Bitcoin) first fluctuated sharply in a short period of time, and then began to dive. It has now fallen back below $70,000, close to the $69k line.

Wall Street institutions have followed the data and postponed their expectations of interest rate cuts to November this year. Jiaolian looked at BTC, which has been sideways since March, and couldn't help but fall into deep thought.

Look at the red box drawn by Jiaolian in the picture. A sideways channel. From March to November? How many months? 8 months. Amazing coincidence? Do you remember anything?

Looking back at the 1.9 article "Bitcoin's Big Rise and Fall" and the 4.14 article "Cannonballs Sink Positions", you will see that the same box is about 8 months. It is the following picture:

This picture shows the sideways consolidation period experienced after the gold ETF was approved for listing. The length of the box is also more than 8 months.

But we all know that when the box finally broke upward, gold started a magnificent 5-year bull market.

However, yesterday, the 6.7 Teaching Chain Insider also mentioned that the Bitfinex analyst team said that BTC’s current bull market will firmly turn into a bear market and end hastily by the end of the year.

So there is a huge disagreement here: at the end of 2024, when the Federal Reserve turns the ship around and sails in the opposite direction, will BTC soar into the sky in 2025 and start a bull market, or will it fall into hell and enter a long bear market?

I feel that the logic of Bitfinex’s point of view is not smooth. This has been analyzed in the internal reference article and will not be repeated here.

The bull market in 2025 and the bear market in 2026 are the standard models of the power law and the driving rhythm of the 4-year halving cycle. However, in each cycle, some people will criticize this as being too rigid.

In fact, this is also a big myth about this unusual production halving cycle, namely the 2024 halving debate: is the increase fading, or is it a super cycle?

After all, this round of BTC's "gold halving" in April 2024 has made BTC's "asset hardness" far surpass that of gold, making it the hardest asset known on earth.

The $70,000 in March was raised by the approval of the US spot ETF at the beginning of the year. The supply tightening effect brought about by the halving of production in April may not have been reflected yet.

In the past, each halving would bring the bull market to its peak in about a year and a half. Then, it would take about a year to "deleverage" and completely clean up the market.

As precise as a clock. Tick-tick.

Every time, someone tries to prove that BTC’s 4-year cycle is just a coincidence of macro external factors, rather than the effect of halving internal factors. But every time, all attempts to disrupt BTC’s endogenous clock and cycle rhythm have failed.

The bull market at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 crushed countless bodies of short positions. The eternal bull market of Three Arrow Capital in early 2021 is now forgotten by no one. In the early summer of 2022, Jiaolian believed that BTC could recover and go bullish despite the Fed's balance sheet reduction, but it was not until 2023 that it began to come true, and the market had already changed.

BTC has been stubbornly bottoming out 1.5 years before the halving and peaking 1.5 years after the halving, with a 3-year upward trend and a 1-year downward trend, a 4-year cycle. Will its clock-like precise rhythm be broken this time?