Will the postponement of the expected rate cut to September and June become a "kill first and respect later" market?

The trading in June will be very "bloody". The data at 2 am today did not sing bearish, but was positive. At the same time, since today is the 613 delivery day, the price of BTC rose from the lowest of $66,051 to $69,999, an increase of 6%. Then it fell back from $69,999 to $67,500.

The zkSync project has delayed its launch time due to the community dissatisfaction caused by the large amount of "rat positions" hoarded by the project party. The zkSync witch lost almost 60% of the user addresses, causing a lot of abuse in the community. zkSync will decide to postpone the launch time, which may cause great pressure on the launch of ZK. The project party created a large number of addresses to build a rat position, which is a double-edged sword. The question of whether to sell or not has become the most important issue for zkSync traders.

If there is a sell-off, the selling pressure on the market will be huge. Since the insider trading is too concentrated and the airdrop does not constitute a dispersed address, the expectation of selling pressure is amplified, resulting in greater panic among traders about trading after the launch.

If they are not sold, the project party will control the market, which will lead to the actual controllers of many addresses exercising their independent will. Once a large number of chips are controlled and not flow into the market, the trading volume will shrink. Under low liquidity conditions, there will be a steady rise, but high prices will still cause panic among traders.

What is the terminal interest rate?

The terminal rate refers to the highest (or lowest) level that the Federal Reserve expects interest rates to reach during a round of rate hikes or rate cuts. This interest rate level indicates that the Federal Reserve believes that the monetary policy stance suitable for economic conditions has been reached, and heralds the end of the rate hike or rate cut cycle.

The determination of the terminal interest rate is based on the Fed's comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, including the following key factors:

• Inflation: One of the main goals of the Federal Reserve is to maintain price stability, that is, to maintain an inflation rate of around 2%. If the inflation rate is too high, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to a certain terminal rate to curb inflation; conversely, if the inflation rate is too low, the terminal rate may be lower.

• Economic growth: The rate of economic growth also affects the setting of the terminal interest rate. Strong economic growth may require higher interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating, while weak economic growth may require lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity.

• Employment conditions: The Fed also keeps an eye on the job market. High employment and low unemployment are usually associated with higher interest rates, while high unemployment may require lower interest rates to support employment.

• Global economic environment: Global economic uncertainty and monetary policies of other major economies will also affect the Federal Reserve's terminal interest rate decision.

The main reason for the market decline this time was also due to several positive data, which led to a temporary gap in the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut.

Since Powell revealed in his last press conference that "the Fed will consider lowering interest rates if the unemployment rate reaches 4%," in fact, it has not exceeded 4% for nearly a year in a row, and the latest data is 4%, which is not significantly higher than expectations. The Fed has not focused on lowering interest rates in the current environment.

In addition, the Democratic Party has also expressed its hope to urge the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible, and this news also revealed that in the short term, the Federal Reserve is not very enthusiastic about cutting interest rates.

When will interest rates be cut?

Currently, all players in the circle are paying attention to the issue of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. The interest rate cut means that economic development is moving in a good direction.

After the data was released last week, the market speculation about a rate cut suddenly died down, because the data was all stable and there were no major adjustments or optimism.

Then people will pay more attention to when the interest rate will be cut.

Currently, the terminal interest rate shows data on September 18. As of now, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 48.3%, which is higher than the probability of 525-550 for no interest rate cut. This is the most important turning point at present.

So regarding the issue of interest rate cuts, I think the probability of a rate cut in September is the highest.

Will June be a bloody battle?

First of all, the market volatility in June may be very large. In the futures market, the main force options market is very bullish. The current main option position is on the 628 exercise date, and its biggest pain point is US$55,000.

The nominal amount of the option positions on June 28 was US$6.564 billion, and the number of call options was 65,800, worth US$4.454 billion.

It accounts for 67% of the total nominal amount, indicating that the market is strongly bullish about the second half of June. Although the data may show some hawkish views and remarks, the current funding market is optimistic.

The trading in June will be very "bloody". The data at 2 am today did not sing bearish, but was positive. At the same time, since today is the 613 delivery day, the price of BTC rose from the lowest $66,051 to $69,999, an increase of 6%. Then it fell back from $69,999 to $67,500.

The weather is too hot now, so everyone should pay more attention to rest. The market in June will be more volatile, which is a good opportunity for those who like short-term trading.