Viewpoint: US stocks have peaked and BTC is about to usher in the final frenzy

I haven't written a tweet for a long time. On the one hand, my views have all been shared in DC, and on the other hand, there has been no change in the direction of the market recently, so it is not easy to post an analysis. Now, the critical moment has arrived, and the direction of the US stock market is about to reverse! Now is the possible peak point (as for why it is possible rather than certain, because the wave can only be verified after the fact, but the possibility can be judged in advance)

We all know that there is something called interest rate cut in September. Many people interpret the interest rate cut as a good thing, but I don’t think so. To quote my friend @ttyuanli, interest rates will only be cut when the economy is bad. If the economy is bad, how can stocks rise?

At present, it is very likely that the negative news has been realized in advance, and the market has begun to respond to the interest rate cut. (I am not good at macroeconomics, if you have different opinions, please discuss them together) Against the background of the peak of the US stock market, the price behavior of BTC is interesting. Some people think that BTC will be hyped as a safe-haven asset at this time and continue to rise. I also think so, but I think it will only be limited to the next two months, and it will fall further in the future. And we may even see a big cake starting with 4.

This situation conflicts with my previous prediction, but it also explains why $BTC has risen so rapidly recently: because the U.S. stock market has peaked, time is tight and the task is heavy, leaving little time for it to break new highs! So these days it will also and with a high probability continue to rise like a bulldozer with a small retracement ratio, and finally complete the breakthrough of the new high and realize the perfection of the overall shape.

Summarize

① The US stock market has peaked, and the level is very large. The correction time will be very long, and it is expected to be about half a year to a year. The room for correction will also be large, at least 20%.

②BTC lacks a breakthrough to the 7w4 new high. Combined with the S&P and Nasdaq, it is very likely to form a fast sawtooth pattern and complete the breakthrough with a very small retracement.

③The gorgeous fireworks are coming, I hope you and I will not be its fuel, but the admirers of its collapse.