Is Ethereum still viable?

I just had a phone call with a friend, and the core topic was whether Ethereum is still viable?
My conclusion is: OK, to sum it up simply, the industry has a promising future, but it will take time for it to explode .

Simply record the logic you said:

L2 is either failed or correct, I think it is correct:

• From the perspective of the public chain, there is almost no new L1 release in this cycle.

• Ethereum’s modular L2 direction almost prevents the emergence of new public chains

• Large companies (such as Sony) almost all launch chains based on L2 of Ethereum ecosystem infrastructure.

• There are only a few old and new public chains left, and Solana is the only one that can compete

The problem becomes that L2 takes away liquidity and reduces Ethereum's ability to capture value. My conclusion is that this is only a temporary phenomenon:

• This problem only arises when there is insufficient liquidity on the market.

• There are a lot of similar projects in ICOs in 2017, and finally there are only a few top companies in each track.

• A large number of 21 liquidity mining projects have emerged, and in the end only a few companies remain in each segment.

• The current L2 contention will also be a process of first explosion and then convergence, and liquidity will only gather in a few chains.

• At the same time, Ethereum will eventually solve the interoperability problem (op stack currently also has an interoperability solution)

The butterfly effect of lower transaction fees has not yet appeared, but it will eventually lead to the explosion of large-scale applications:

• Previously, the transaction fees on the chain were expensive and the wallet threshold was high. Only a sufficient money-making effect could attract some users to the chain.

• Currently, the transaction fee of Ethereum has been greatly reduced, and the transaction fee of transferring U on the chain is even an order of magnitude lower than that of TRON.

• The transaction fee is lower on L2, which will promote the emergence of many new application forms. The product subsidy of 10U is enough for users to operate 10,000 times.

• In addition, with the wide application of abstract accounts, especially social recovery (already popularized by exchanges), users do not need to worry about account security and thresholds.

• With easy-to-use infrastructure and no user-paid fees, many traditional web2s will seek opportunities on it, and new forms will emerge.

There is also an unavoidable competition issue between BTCFi and Solana:

• First of all, I personally think that BTCFi will still be based on Ethereum on a large scale in the future, which in itself strengthens the narrative of Ethereum public chain.

• For example, the development of the application market cannot be dominated by Apple alone. How much market share will Apple and Android occupy in the future? This requires personal judgment.

• If Solana doesn't do anything, why not take Solana? This is still a question of personal confidence. Which one will give you a better mentality and be more stable if you hold it for 5 years without moving?

Questions about the future of the crypto industry:

• Gambling and gray industries are the basics. First of all, the basics will always be there, and encryption cannot die.

• Judging from the trend, traditional finance has already penetrated the on-chain business, and large companies are also making their own products.

• The future cycle may be different from the previous one. In the past, faB was too easy to make money, so who would make products?

• This cycle may be a turning point, making people realize that direct faB is no longer feasible, and more people will gradually be willing to make underlying profitable products.

• Before OpenAI 3.5 was released, NVIDIA's infrastructure was already very good. WeChat was released a few years after iPhone 4. These all require time to accumulate and trial and error.

• If I have to add a time frame, I think the explosive growth will come in 5-10 years.